Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Australia may have unintentionally chosen the best USP for Tel Aviv.
Australia’s first national final crowned Kate Miller-Heidke as the winner with the song Zero Gravity.
Having studied the Australian televote trends over the last week, as well as read what Australian Eurovision fans were posting on the SBS Facebook page, it became obvious Kate would perform strongly on the public vote. It also became fairly apparent that Sheppard would struggle to standout with their out-of-character staging. It appeared too desperate and didn’t suit them as a supposedly credible band. They were trying to be too Eurovision without formulating a concept that played to their strengths. In that form, Sheppard would merely be adding to the sea of beige chosen for Eurovision 2019 so far and would struggle to stand out. Therefore, Australia may have unintentionally chosen the best USP for Tel Aviv.
Admittedly, Zero Gravity is a mess. It is jury kryptonite, and in a Eurovision context, it is more Romania 2013/Sweden 2009 than Estonia 2018. Both of those aforementioned songs finished outside of the top-10 and both nations boast many more allies than Australia. Estonia 2018 at least had some credibility on its side.
The ‘WTF!’ reaction should help Kate on the televote in the same way it aided Denmark’s vikings. They finished 5th with the public and 20th with the juries. Back in 2013, Romania’s Cezar finished 7th with the public and 24th with the juries. Depending what other songs are chosen, there might be a certain amount of goodwill on the televote in May. Having said that, this theory hinges on the public being entertained. After 1:30 I find myself getting bored. The last 40-seconds is particularly repetitive, which may seriously test Australia’s televote given the comedy value wears off so quickly.
Even with a great USP Australia could be in trouble. Luckily they were drawn into semi-final 1 where the competition isn’t as ferocious. Even so, the first semi-final is rather eastern-leaning and points will be hard fought. At this stage I would have Australia 7th-11th in the semi with a 15th-20th place finish in the final provided they escape the semi. If they adapt the staging to deliver more surprises as the song develops, then qualification shouldn’t be a problem.