Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Salvador can't win every year. Sometimes Europe wants fast-food and fireworks!
After this week’s song leak, Australia has finally published the Eurovision version of Jessica Mauboy’s #We Got Love.
Jessica will perform in the first half of semi-final 2.
It’s fair to say that the reaction to Jessica’s song has been mixed with many suggesting We Got Love will finish well outside of the top-10 and shouldn’t be considered a contender. Others have greater confidence, citing Australia’s historic jury support and the positive feeling of the song.
I wouldn’t say we are in a low-quality year, but I would highlight the district lack of entries capable of instantly sounding like top-5 contenders. So many songs have negatives, yet one of them has to win and four more have to make up the top-5.
In previous years, the market has always reacted negatively to Australia’s song. Tonight Again, Sound of Silence and Don’t Come Easy all caused Australia’s price to drift on release. We Got Love is the only Australian song to shorten for both the leaked release and the official release. I am told by a reliable source that there were two songs in contention this year and that the Australian Head of Delegation waited until the last possible moment to select the song. This says a lot about Australia’s intent this year: in selecting such an upbeat song that combines a positive uplifting melody and powerful vocal, they are surely going to Lisbon to win. I say again, Australia are going to Lisbon to win.
There are many factors that could go against Australia in Portugal. One of them is Azerbaijan’s slightly similar X My Heart which boasts a similarly positive, anthemic melody. Interestingly, the market drifted to 100/1 for Aisel, yet shortened for Jessica; probably because We Got Love is much more chart-worthy and impactful, and is likely to be rated higher by juries outside of the ‘let’s-mark-down-our-competitors’ bloc. The song just keeps building and building and then it just soars after that percussive bridge.
Most of Australia’s points have tended to come from western Europe and Scandinavia, but in 2016 even the likes of Azerbaijan, Moldova and Belarus were willing to send decent points down-under. If the song is good enough, it’ll score points regardless. The main debate at the moment is that some people see We Got Love as being too generic to win. In that case Heroes was generic. Hey Mamma was too yet finished 3rd; as did You Are the Only One and that was a vintage first bottled in the noughties. Salvador can’t win every year. Sometimes Europe wants fast-food and fireworks!
Many people have also flagged up Jessica’s poor performance in Copenhagen a few year’s back. I have to admit that this was my initial concern when she was first announced, but after some basic research I discovered she had blossomed as a performer. Here are just a few of her recent live performances:
Having seen those videos, I think even the loudest of critics can concede she has improved since 2014.
So until we get to Lisbon, my advice would be to not underestimate Australia in such an open year.
- Positive, radio-friendly melody
- More jury friendly than other upbeat songs
- Vocally more secure than in 2014
- Televote not guaranteed for Australia
- Azerbaijan fishing for same votes
Is this Australia’s route back to the top-5?