Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Estonia could nab a placed finish, but just top-10 is the range I'm working to right now.
It was probably the most predictable result of the selection season as early favourite, Elina Nechayeva, won Eesti Laul with the song La Forza.
Elina will perform La Forza in the first half of semi-final 1.
The comments have quickly flowed in questioning the high rating for this song. This time last month, I may have been more conservative, but the Eurovision 2018 field is nearing completion and there is a distinct lack of songs that make you sit up a take notice. La Forza, along with its staging, does just that.
When I first heard La Forza, I dismissed it as generic popera destined to struggle in the same way as the then market leader, Amaury Vassili, did back in 2011. I also noted that if Il Volo only came 6th with the juries in 2015, how can Estonia hope to get anywhere near that?
Again I return to what I wrote above: there is a lack of standout songs so far this year, subject to a handful of big hitters yet to show their hand. Amaury lacked personality and staging in 2011 and Il Volo took part in the most competitive final of recent years. At the time of writing, I would struggle to place any of this year’s songs into the 2015 top-6. It really was a vintage lineup!
Given how Eurovision tends to reward stellar vocals, might it be prudent to view La Forza as this year’s Suus? Neither are particularly commercial songs, but both boast incredible vocals. That ability to create a moment is crucial at Eurovision, as is creating a visually effective staging concept.
That’s how I feel about Estonia relative to this year’s lineup as it stands.
As DurhamBorn points out in the comments, Elina did win in an incredibly easy Eesti Laul lineup. Yes she romped the jury and televote which is traditionally a sign of potential Eurovision success, but one can’t overlook how plasticky La Forza is. If the Eurovision juries are truly doing their jobs in May, there has to be at least four or five songs ahead of Estonia. Maybe more. The easily led public may offer a little more support, but that doesn’t constitute joint favourite status on the Betfair outright in my book. It also doesn’t recognise how esoteric this song is when compared to three young Italian guys performing the real thing, as DurhamBorn describes it. Estonia could nab a placed finish, but top-10 is the range I’m working to right now.
If Portugal is searching for a ‘real music’ winner, it would do well to look elsewhere – provided such songs appear.
- Flawless vocals
- Visually effective staging concept
- Not a good example of the genre
- Not as uplifting/melodic as Il Volo
- Esoteric in parts
Is the force strong with Estonia this year?