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Photo: Pelle T Nilsson

Melodifestivalen: Andra Chansen Preview

Next weekend’s andra chansen (second chance) lineup is complete with the addition of Felix and Olivia from heat-4.

Duel 1:

  • Margaret – In my Cabana – 1.25
  • Moncho – Cubra Libra – 3.5

Margaret is the obvious pick here given she most likely finished 3rd compared to Moncho’s probable 4th. In heat 2, the voting heart flamed for 1:15 during In My Cabana, whereas for Cubra Libra, the heart barely flamed longer than 12-seconds. Moreover, Margaret stacked up around 10,000 more Spotify streams in her first two days when compared to Moncho. And at the time of writing, there are nearly 20-places between Margaret and Moncho on the Spotify chart.

Duel 2:

  • Renaida – All The Feels – 1.3
  • Olivia Eliasson – Never Learn – 3.25

As with Margaret, it is highly likely that Renaida finished 3rd in her heat. The voting heart flamed for 1:32 during All the Feels, as opposed to just 0:53 for Olivia’s Never Learn. Spotify paints a slightly different picture, though, with Olivia boasting up to 13,000 more streams than Renaida on the second day of release – the gap was around 5,000 on the first day.

Last year, the closest duel was separated by just 6,000 votes, which is almost a rounding error when one considers over 1.5-million votes were cast for each match-up. I think this is a more even duel than the odds suggest. From a trading angle, it might be worth backing Olivia at the higher odds available on Betfair.

Duel 3:

  • Felix Sandman – Every Single Day – 1.25
  • Mimi Werner – Song Burning – 3.6

It took a age for the heart to start flaming for Felix, but once it got going, it continued for around 55-seconds. Mimi, on the other hand, managed to keep her heart burning for three-seconds longer. That sounds like an even match, given Mimi boasts a much stronger, radio-friendly chorus. It all changes when it comes to Spotify with Mimi barely charting in the top-50, compared to Felix entering the chart higher than market leader, Benjamin Ingrosso. I don’t think this is particularly relevant when it comes to the outright market, but it may just be crucial for this duel. Even so, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the higher-odds value.

Duel 4:

  • Sigrid Bernson  – Patrick Swaze – 2.3
  • Mendez – Everyday – 1.72

This is potentially one of the more evenly matched duels despite Mendez almost certainly finishing 3rd in heat 3. However, his performance was soooo bad, backing him is a tad risky. Sigrid’s voting-heart flamed for around 20-seconds longer than Mendez and there was only 1,092 difference in the number of streams on their respective first days on Spotify. The gap has opened up now, but I don’t think it guarantees that Mendez has the edge in this duel.

Summary:

Such is the substandard quality of this year’s entries, it makes deciding between the andra chanson also rans rather tricky. The only certainty is Margaret with maybe Renaida and Felix winning their slightly closer than anticipated duels. For the first time in several years, this isn’t a week I’m planning to invest large stakes. Margaret will be my only play unless I see value in-play.

The final running order will be announced live on Saturday night, so the outright market might react if one of the favourites gets a worse than expected running order slot. Stock up on the coffee and prepare for a lively night of trading!

About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

2 comments

  1. Booring, the Two best songs against eachother in duel 3 😕

  2. So…

    Duel 1 – Margaret wins easily.
    Duel 2 – Renaida wins easily.
    Duel 3 – Felix wins, but could be close.
    Duel 4 – Close call, but I edge towards Sigrid because of her very strong Spotify numbers.

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