Home / Verka's Vault / Eurovision Winners / Portugal 2017: Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois

Portugal 2017: Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois

Portugal have just won Eurovision for the first time with the first foreign language victory since Molitva.

We’ll be heading to Lisbon next year as Salvador requests an end to fast food music!

About Gavster

ESCtips Owner   I’m a qualified designer and dedicate a lot of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.


  1. Gavster,
    Thanks for all of your input and advice this season.
    All off your own back and from your own love of the ESC, I hope it was profitable for you. Congrats on predicting the winner in your preview also.

  2. Yeah hats off Gav, has been great reading your thoughts. Hope it was a profitable year for you.

    Was a decent one for me – mainly as a result of staying away from the winner market as I could never quite put my finger on Portugal so gave it a tactical swerve – a deserved and crushing victory though. Look forward to digging into the stats once I’ve slept a bit.

  3. Any idea on how the scores will turn out if we used the combined 50/50 voting?

    Norway 2009 and Sweden 2015 didn’t even get 700 points during their time. Is it safe to say that Portugal got the highest score ever using the scoring system before?

    • Well, in 2009 and 2012 42 countries participated too. Direct mathematical comparisons can be made if we assume that under the old system Portugal would have got half of their 758 points. 758 halved is 379. Ryback got 387 and Loreen got 372. So it looks like Salvador is in between the two. Certainly, his win puts him up there. Bulgaria’s second place seems to be far stronger than that of Iceland or Russia in 2009 and 2012. It really was a two-horse race in the end, and Portugal and Bulgaria got an extremely high percentage of the points between them.

  4. Thanks again Gav for the reports! Its been another successful year 🙂

    Italy (6th) was hurt by Hungary (8th) and Moldova (3rd)…. and I do think Sweden (5th) hurt Bulgaria (2nd) in the televotes…

    The best performance won – CONGRATULATIONS PORTUGAL!!

  5. Thanks for all the coverage again Gav. I hope you made a decent profit this year. For me it was OK, although I was hoping for more.

    Mainly the results of Armenia and Australia I didn’t expect. I must say I still don’t really understand how it’s possible that 58 jurors put Australia in their Top 5 yesterday, whereas 30 jurors put Armenia in their bottom 5, very often even below Spain.

  6. Echo the previous comments and wanted to say cheers Gav for the insight and tips. Made a decent wee profit. Could have been a bit more if The Netherlands had managed a top ten but can’t complain. Surprised to see Australia so far up the leaderboard with such an average song but clearly the juries liked it for whatever reason!

  7. Thank you so much Gav. I love your site and the fantastic analysis from everyone. I’m pleased the UK came 15th, I think we deserved that. I also think Portugal’s win was huge and it was very much well deserved. I’m still sad that Italy didn’t do it, I still love Occidentali’s Karma, but at the end of the day, he didn’t deliver the goods like he did in Sanremo.
    I was playing with very little money, but percentage wise I made a healthy profit. This was the first year that I really got into the betting, so thanks again Gav.
    As a competition, I really enjoyed it. A real range of songs and I had so much fun watching it, Croatia was side splitting after I’d had a few drinks! Russia was not missed, and it was improved by not having a tonne of ex-Yugoslav countries voting for each other. It’s also great to see the top 4 being Por/Bul/Mol/Bel, who’d have thought! Really does show that it is, by and large, about the songs.

  8. Again, like everyone has said, thank you for another year of great analysis Gav. I’m just an enthusiastic fan rather than a betting person, but I always enjoy reading your reports and opinions.

  9. Thank u for all the advice this Eurovision season. You might want to look at some of the jury points this year more regional bias than before

  10. Gav, like everyone else here I would like to say thanks for all your hard work over the past 6 months or so. I remember after Stockholm you said you were going to scale back your activities in the year ahead. Well, I didn’t see much of evidence of that!

    Have a well earned rest in the coming week. I await your analysis of the results with interest particularly your explanation as to how our friend Blanche managed to keep her head above water.

  11. 1000 thanks Gav for this wonderfull website, I am happy for my many correct predictions like Croatia, sad that I didnt bet anything. Very very corrupt voting checking azerbaijan from semi 1 and Greece. They traded many points with other countries in the juries and Azerbaijan got high televote votes from many countries with low population ( they bought sim cards ), since the cost of the points from those countries is lower. the jury of Azerbaijan hated the Greek song in the semi giving 0 points but awarded 5 points to it in the final. Also montenegro is funny. Poor Ireland did very very well but was doomed due to the lack of any 8-12 points, and the many many 8th-12th placings. Its also intresting to check from how many different countries each song received points. These observations are from the semifinals only.

  12. Great service again from Gav and all on ESC …I will chip in with my thanks as well….and hope for more in 2018

    Marvellous to have a new name on the trophy… a hugely merited winner…

    alas, some things never change…all five Armenian and Azerbaijani jurors placed each other’s respective songs in twenty fifth position…

    plus ça change,….

  13. Nice result for the top 2 places and pleased to see Hungary do so well,deserved.Also thankyou Moldova for keeping Belgium out of the top 3 and Spain for coming last.An ROI of 36% this year.Lower than standout years but happy enough.

    Of course Cyprus and Greece should be kicked out of the comp,as should Azer and Armenia.The EBU needs to act instead of laughing off the fact juries are voting for friends/political reasons.ESC is in good shape apart from these few juries.The minimum should be the EBU select the jury in those countries.
    Russia werent missed at all,a shame they will be back next year.Into winter and it can all start again with Albania.

    • the last two years cyprus didnt give greece many points by the way, there are many much worse countries than Cyprus voting politicaly…

    • People just cant understand that Cyprus is a small Greece. Demys song was played like hell in Cyprus and Hovigs in Greece, thats why they exchange points every year. The countries share TV channels and music companies! To ban 2 countries because they have the exactly same culture? Like Sweden/Denmark/Norway/Finland, Moldova/Romania, Spain/Portugal dont exchange points? Its more common taste in music than corruption.

      • Minoah, that only justifies televote patterns though. I doubt a Greek jury would objectively be able to say their own entry was the best (culture notwithstanding), and therefore also the Cypriot shouldn’t do so. The other countries you mention didn’t exchange jury 12-ers from what I can see, not even Moldova-Romania (which is also in essence just one country).

        That being said, I agree with zaubererer that there are worse offenders out there.

  14. Gav, thank you for great coverage of Eurovision. I’m getting obsessed with this contest more and more every year.

    Reminders for next year. There is always room for surprises in Eurovision. Every year we see shock Q/NQ and shock TOP 10/TOP 4. In betting we must take that into account.

    • Always worth keeping an eye on the benalux region, with the rise they have been on you’d imagine a victory is only just around the corner.

  15. Utmost respect to Gavster, one more time, thank you very much your inputs and your insightful reports. This year was very profitable for me with NQ for Latvia and FYROM as well as predicting also the winner, Portugal. I am looking forward to next year contest, will be interesting to see reaction from Serbia after NQ, and the rest after Solvador’s win.

  16. Nice work as always Gav, and great to finally meet you in person! 🙂

  17. Gav, when will you be posting your post Eurovision insights for this year?
    I would like to know your thoughts regarding the results of this year.

    • Hi Mike,

      I’ve decided not to write one this year, given there weren’t any major shocks or controversial moments. I found the two weeks extremely draining this year – similar to Copenhagen where the catering sucked and the travelling to and from the arena was a real trawl. Moreover, the musical standard was pretty low.

      I’ll chuck a few thoughts together now though…

      It quickly became apparent that Gabbani had gone backwards since Sanremo as his song seemed to lose its energy and slickness. Portugal and Bulgaria were always my reserve winners, and even though I was a huge fan of Occidentali’s Karma, I was happy to see it drift out of contention and present two better value potential winners.

      Bulgaria eventually came together once they dropped most of the distracting graphics and camera angles employed during first rehearsal. It proved the theory that less is more. I could never understand the negativity for Kristian or his song in what was a poor lineup this year. He was always going to be a challenger.

      The class and simplicity of Portugal won in the end and becomes the first non-English winner since Molitva. Hopefully this sees the return of greater musical diversity and less generic Swedish pop. I like Swedish pop, but since Loreen’s win, an increasing number of countries have opted to buy production-line songs, mistakenly thinking it will deliver overnight success. In Bulgaria’s case, it has, but Ireland, Serbia and FYRoM all failed to make the final.

      I’m not sold on the new points system, as I believe it causes too many differences of opinion between the juries and televote. This is largely because the televote groups around several contenders and jettisons songs lacking the ‘X Factor’ such as: Australia and Austria for instance. The juries rank each song 1-26, which is wrong in my view. I’m not sure what the solution is, but I think the system is broken if Isaiah only finishes 15th on the televote in semi-1, yet is ranked 2nd by the juries despite failing to nail his vocals. In the final Isaiah scored just 2-points from the televote yet scored a top-10 finished thanks to a 4th-place ranking from the juries. I think I was more in tune with the televote this year, as I had Australia missing out on top-10 and struggling to qualify. I even had Austria as value to finish last.

      As I said above, I’m not sure what the solution is. Uncertainty is great for viewers, but for us gamblers it’s a nightmare. Ultimately though, I don’t think it’s fair that the Australia situation should be allowed to happen. I have it on very good authority that RAI would have changed the rules had they won. There’s zero chance of RTP changing anything, which means next year’s top-10 market will be just as tricky. Having said that, the musical standard was poor and even though the televote only groups around a few contenders and diaspora songs, the juries will constantly promote class, even if some of the songs are not picked up by the viewers at home.

      • Catriona colville

        Any thoughts on why your initial predictions on Armenia were so wrong? As you said to me, it was an entertaining 3 minute package. Surprised it came so low.

        • I was always a fan of the video, but if I’m honest, after seeing it in Ukraine, I was a tad deflated. But such was the low bar for musical quality, I expected the juries to support the artistry and uniqueness of the composition. Clearly it was too esoteric for both sides of the vote when up against the simplicity of the eventual top-6, though Belgium still has me baffled. The juries were spot on and I found it strange to see the televote move so strongly for such a poorly performed song. Top-10 perhaps, but top-4? Hmmmm.

          One thing that was clear this year is someone on Betfair had comprehensive knowledge of the results (not just the hints I usually get at the press centre). There was massive opposition to Armenia top-10 after the first semi-final. I’d already guessed it might be close, so stopped increasing exposure. Portugal also shortened after the first semi-final despite semi 1 having a more open feel about it.

          We now have two years data under the new scoring system, which is proving to be rather erratic. Going forward I’ll be focussing more on the outright and investing less on the top-10 market, at least until I get to rehearsals.

          • Gav, don’t you think the absence of Armenia on the esctracker after the semi was enough to move the market? The same for Portugal who was leading on the itunes…

          • Yes and yes, but it was too suspicious for Armenia in the top-10 market. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but there were some strange moves this year that both Rob and I noticed.

            I’m not worried by it, because I’ll be adapting my strategy next year to focus less on the top-10 markets and more on the outrights. The new rules have made it a little tricky to take big positions pre-rehearsals unless it one of the odds on favs.

  18. If Italy had won , would RAI have changed the voting system and would they be allowed to only Sweden have done it before

    • Yes, I’m told they would have proposed some changes to the ‘ranking’ system. Any changes can be proposed, but it requires the agreement of the reference group to enact such alterations.

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