Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Cohesiveness of Package
As it's Russia, there will still be a solid tranche of support from the former USSR nations which should see them through to the final.
Russia are turning up… for now.
X Factor runner up, Yuliya Samoylova, will perform Flame Is Burning in Kyiv and will need to escape semi-final 2.
Firstly, I think it’s rather crass of Russia to exploit a disability to seemingly dispel any criticism of the nation during the Eurovision period. This sort of milking of the sympathy vote not only lowers the prestige of the Contest, it leaves a nasty taste in the mouths of organisers and fans knowing it’s a political facade. Moreover, the folly of yet another peace ballad being sent by a nation with such a heinous regard for ethics, fair play, freedom, human rights and free speech is both duplicitous and down right offensive to the ideals of the Contest.
I’ve always made a point of highlighting my loathing of politics getting in the way of what should be a musical Contest, however, when it comes to Russia, I feel the EBU should act. Whether it’s the olympics or international politics, allowing this nation to turn up and potentially win the right to host is terrifying, while outwardly giving them carte blanche to continue mocking the ethics the rest of us hold so dear.
As it’s Russia, there will still be a solid tranche of support from the former USSR nations which should see them through to the final. But if one accepts Eurovision is a level playing field and judges this song on vocals and musical relevance, then should they make the final? I would like to think not, but we all know there’s virtually zero chance of that happening. Therefore, a Poland 2015 result of 8th in the semi-final might be likely, but with a reasonable chance of 9th-16th once in the Grand Final.
Now while I’m sure Yuliya is a pleasant girl, her vocal capabilities are somewhat hampered by her disability. One has to be honest in that appraisal. Should the juries allow for that? They didn’t in 2015 when Monika Kuszyńska was last-but-one with the juries, or indeed in 2014 when Finland finished last in their semi-final. Therefore Russia really are left with their regional base vote. In 2011, that base vote led to Alexey Vorobyov being ranked last with the juries and 7th on the televote, resulting in Russia’s worse placing since 1995 when Philipp Kirkorov finished 17th. An optimistic assessment would see Russia finishing somewhere around Peter Nalitch and Friends’ 11th.
Is Russia’s recent run of form up in flames?