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Melodifestivalen 2017: Andra Chansen Preview

With all 28 songs performed, this year’s Melodifestivalen final is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent memory. Before that, however, we have this week’s andra chansen to contended with.

The duels format will see four 3rd placed songs pitched against four 4th placed songs. The assumption would be that the higher placed songs would win, but last year SaRaha, who was 4th in her heat, beat 3rd placed Isa by over 11,000 votes. And a year earlier, two of the 4th placed songs beat their 3rd placed opposition. It’s important to recognise that each heat has its own dynamic, so what finished 4th in one heat, may well have hit 3rd or qualified direkt when against different songs.

The duels are as follows:

  • FO&O vs  De Vet Du
  • Axel vs Lisa
  • Boris vs Dismissed
  • Anton vs Loreen

I think only one of these duels is straight forward. And even though being 3rd in their respective heat is an advantage, part of the challenge is working out who actually achieved it.

Who Finished Where?

In duel one we have the tasty FO&O vs  De Vet Du match up, and strangely the bookmakers priced FO&O as the big favourites. Unibet were a low as 1.2 yesterday and Bet365 are 1.6 today. If you work that backwards, it’s probably because they have a strong opinion that Loreen only just missed out on direkt, thus finished 3rd. What if De Vet Du finished 3rd and it was actually Loreen who finished 4th? Now before the fanboys reach for their keyboards and start protesting in the strongest possible terms using words of one syllable that rhyme with duck and blunt, bear with me…

The app vote has added a small amount of unpredictability into the show, especially when you have social media darlings like De Vet Du. However, there’s a fairly reliable method of tracking popularity by timing the live heart icon. I have done that for every song so you don’t have to.

Heat one saw this result:

I only timed the lightning heartbeat, rather than when it simply started beating.

Unless Boris Rene stormed the vote when the lines reopened, De Vet Du should have finished 3rd, just like when Samir & Viktor finished 3rd in their heat in 2015 and 2016, and when Sean Banan finished 3rd in heat 1 back in 2012.

Furthermore, comparing their relative Spotify streams immediately after their respective heats implies De Vet Du finished ahead of Boris. Having said that, Boris beat Albin & Mattias in andra chansen last year, even though Albin & Mattias had more than double the daily streams. But when matched with the apparent app popularity, it heavily points to De Vet Du beating Boris, and thus, Loreen finishing 4th.

What about heat 4?

As a number of people noticed on Twitter, Loreen took ages to register any support on the app. It’s like Swedish viewers were either captivated or confused by what they were witnessing and took over two minutes to decide to vote. That means Loreen has the lowest ‘lightning heartbeat’ time of any qualified act so far. Just a note to people who think Loreen can still win Eurovision: if Sweden took over two minutes to decide to vote for a song specifically aimed at them, how the f*ck are the rest of Europe going to react? Note Wiktoria clearly romped heat 4.

Anyway, back to the chart which shows Loreen in 5th place. Given her profile, it’s likely she was saved when the lines reopened, as noted above. Interestingly, the dress rehearsal audience poll shows a similar result, albeit with Loreen 3rd just 0.1% ahead of Alice, who eventually finished 5th.

The audience polls can be erratic and are never 100% correct, yet with all the circumstantial evidence above, there’s more than a possibility that Loreen finished 4th in this heat. The only red flag against this theory would be Dismissed beating Lisa Ajax to 3rd in heat 2. Even so, if you’re looking for a Melfest or Eurovision winner, it shouldn’t take over two minutes for the audience to get the song.

On to the heats…

Heat 1: FO&O vs De Vet Du

At the time of writing, FO&O are best price 1.61 at BET365 with De Vet Du as high as 2.25 at William Hill. UNIBET were as high as 4.0 yesterday! I wish they’d let me have a bet 😭

I think the bookmakers have the wrong favourite, or at least shouldn’t have FO&O so strong a favourite. De Vet Du met expectations by going to andra chansen, whereas FO&O under performed by failing to qualify direkt. Where was the FO&O fanbase? Probably wondering why their guys were performing cheap, derivative, 1990s boyband pop with an overblown, incoherent stage show. De Vet Du at least have a solid theme centred on a classic car and half naked DJ. What’s not to enjoy there?

De Vet Du lead the immediate 4-day post-heat streams, yet FO&O remain consistent at around 150,000 daily streams. That may be due to the playlists their song has been added to, so the daily churn, rather than a motivated fanbase is creating this result. Even so, over 100,000 streams is still impressive for De Vet Du nearly four weeks on from first release.

De Vet Du FO&O
Day 1 169,495 133,784
Day 2 187,202 151,748
Day 3 167,003 151,759
Day 4 156,659 152,830
Current 107,868 150,179

Heat 2: Axel Schylström vs Lisa Ajax

This is another heat where one act met expectations and the other under performed. Yet the under performing Lisa Ajax act did much better on the app, clocking up 1:45 on the ‘lightning heart’ icon, whereas Axel managed just 1:11. Likewise, Ajax is well ahead of Schylström on Spotify with over 50,000 more streams during the first few days after their respective heats. Even today, Ajax has the upper hand on Spotify, leading with 17,000 more streams.

In my opinion, the bookmakers have the right favourite, with Ajax available as high as 1.65 from UNIBET vs 2.10 for Schylström at BET365. Lisa just needs to ensure her fans turn up!

Heat 3: Boris Rene vs Dismissed

The 4-day post-heat Spotify streams suggests this is one of most one-sided duels this year. And even though Boris’ streams aren’t setting the chart alight, as mentioned above vs Albin & Mattias, he is capable of mustering support. Moreover, in terms of staging and energy, Boris should standout against what was quite a disappointing effort from Dismissed. I suspect Roger Pontare was very close to nabbing that second heat 2 andra chansen spot.

Boris Dismissed
Day 1 70,031 26,631
Day 2 68,204 16,929
Day 3 63,171 Not on chart
Day 4 59,744 Not on chart

Boris Rene is currently available at 1.44 from William Hill. Dismissed really should be a tad longer given the lack of interest in them since heat 2. BET365 have priced them at 3.0.

Heat 4: Anton Hagman vs Loreen

Anton is just two places below Loreen on today’s Spotify chart with just 7,000 streams separating them. Yesterday that gap was 12,000, so that supposed momentum people are hoping for to save Loreen might actually be building behind Anton. And if Anton did indeed finish 3rd ahead of FO&O in heat 3, which was the most voted for heat, it’s an incredible achievement. For reference, heat 4 had the lowest voting numbers – over 800,000 less than the cute boy packed heat 3, which potentially ties in with the theory that Swedish viewers were disappointed with Loreen, didn’t vote, thus resulting in around 500,000-800,000 less votes being cast.

In terms of ‘lightning heart’ action, Anton clocked up 1:23 compared with Loreen’s 46-seconds.

The big question is does Sweden feel enough sympathy, rather than shock, over the Loreen situation? If the Eurovision fan community is anything to go by, all Swedes who failed to vote for Loreen will forever burn in hell. If you actually read comments from Swedes living in Sweden, it’s a different story with most reporting the lack of a song, confusing staging, not being able to understand the lyrics and not agreeing with the political overtones. Don’t overlook the fact that Sweden is a politically neutral country and doesn’t dabble in political hectoring. They are a respectful, diplomatic people.

Anyway, I do think there will be a sympathy vote for Loreen, it just depends if she can make up the ground to beat Hagman’s army of girls. Yesterday UNIBET offered 8.0 for Hagman to beat Loreen, which is about fair on a 100% overround, but very generous in this circumstance. I think Hagman is backable at 5.0+ which is currently available at BET365. However, Loreen will probably reach a layable in-play price on Betfair Exchange, so anything 1.15 or below will give you 8.0s in favour of Anton. If that heart doesn’t start beating fast enough during Loreen’s performance, Anton will quickly become favourite to win the duel.

Good luck with this week’s betting. Don’t go too deep, as some of these heats are extremely close.

We’ll be back next week with our Melodifestivalen Final Betting Podcast and Preview Article. If you followed Tobbe’s hints, you would have bagged Nano, Mariette and Wiktoria at big prices!

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

20 comments

  1. I am 100% Axel will qualify and 95% de vet du will qualify. Axel has a catchy song in Swedish like the last song of the ex barbados and alcazar singer, who qualified to the final, while he also has a backstory about that accident. Moreover, the use of the fuck word in a 1 vs 1 duel might make people vote for the other song. De vet du have a funny catchy song, which is more humorous than the samir and viktor songs, which qualified twice in the final, while foo have a really boybandish song, which i really have the feeling that will get eliminated. About the other 2 duels i have no idea who will win.

  2. The flaw in your “Loreen finished 4th” theory is that it requires Anton finished 3rd, and that in turn would require The Fooooooo to have finished 4th. It’s possible but at the same time a bit unlikely from my viewpoint, but oh well.

    Also you didn’t bring up the possibility of anti-voting with the duel system. That’s a possibility with Loreen v Anton, but could also be a factor in The Fooooooooo vs De Vet Du duel. I was pretty much sure that The Foooo’s fangirls might be spurred into action to save them (it’s possible that inertia set in during the semi due to being perceived as being “safe”), but at the same time, I could imagine boyband-haters like me would also vote for De Vet Du to try and get them knocked out.

    • “The flaw in your “Loreen finished 4th” theory is that it requires Anton finished 3rd, and that in turn would require The Fooooooo to have finished 4th”

      That depends if you think FO&O met expectations. In my view they didn’t, whereas Anton did simply by making AC in a difficult heat. Even so, it depends on what you think happened in which duel and then working backward. I think DVD beat Boris, thus the inevitable Loreen situation happened, especially when you look at the heartbeat timings.

      However, I do concede that Ajax losing to Dismissed is a big stretch. But her song wasn’t particularly likeable. But nevertheless, it’s a theory with circumstantial evidence.

  3. Du vet du beat Boris, therefore Fo and O were fourth, meaning Anton was third, ergo Loreen was fourth, if I’m following. That’s some serious homework. Loreens song is a grower but unless the staging has been tweaked quite drastically it might still be too off-putting. I’m not getting involved but the value is definitely in opposing her. I think you’re right with the other three duels too. I’ll definitely back Boris and maybe Lisa but I think the value has gone on Du Vet du.

    • Also, if Loreen was fourth, doesn’t that mean Lisa Ajax was behind Dismissed? With the Spotify data you’ve shown that looks unlikely.

  4. I was devastated to see Du Vet Vu in the same duel as FO&O. By far the best songs/performances in Andra Chansen and they’re up against each other!

  5. Gav, do you have the heartbeat stats from Heat 2? I’m starting to wonder if Benjamin Ingrosso perhaps beat Mariette, based on some stats I’ve seen…

  6. My take is:

    Boris, Lisa, FO&O and Loreen came third.
    De Vet Du, Dismissed, Anton and Axel came fourth.

    Although the data is limited, under the current AC format since 2015, five 3rd placers from their heats have made it to the final over the three 4th placers who did. 2 apiece in 2015 and last year SaRaha was the only 4th placer to make the final.

    I think it’s likely FO&O and Loreen both narrowly missed out, given they both had the pimp slot and have sizable followings. In line with this theory, I can’t see how Anton would have finished 3rd, due to the gravitas of FO&O and *ahem* the amount of money thrown at their production. Likewise, De Vet Du’s number seemed a touch lacking, whereas I thought Boris really impressed as the show opener.

    As for the matchups, I agree on the first duel. FO&O underachieved hugely, compared to De Vet Du, and there’s definitely value in backing the latter. Loreen and Anton is an interesting one. My initial thought after the result on Saturday, was that they’d put her with the glam rockers just to ensure she’d make the final, whereas what SVT have done, is they’ve put her up against a teen heart-throb performing a fairly popular style of song in English. It’s particularly interesting considering they’re only separated by two positions on Spotify, when Dismissed as mentioned, aren’t even charting. The Loreen result must have been either of these two I reckon. A) She got big numbers and only just missed 2nd, giving her a strong chance of beating anyone in Andra Chanson. B) She scraped 4th with lowish numbers and is doomed not to make it. Which one is it?

  7. I’ve not been following Melodifestivalen so far, so I haven’t much to contribute. Other than to say (without seeing any previews or commentaries) I saw the Loreen song and performance for the first time on Youtube an hour ago. My first reaction was WTF followed by no chance. I then skimmed through a number of the other videos and then put Loreen on again. My second reaction was WOW!!!, masterpiece, ground-breaking etc etc.

    And this probably sums it up. It’s a song that needs repeated listens to appreciate. The Melfest format will help it because, if it gets to the final, viewers will have heard it three times. For the reasons Gav and the others give, it probably won’t win Melfest. And based on my own first listen experience, it if does go to Eurovision, the televote will pull it down.

    Still, (and I know you hardened gamblers can’t think this way) Eurovision 2017 will be all the poorer without it.

  8. Audience poll
    ========

    FO&O (11.6%) – De Vet Du (19.4%)
    Axel (8.5%) – Lisa (9.6%)
    Boris (14.1%) – Dismissed (7.3%)
    Anton (8.7%) – Loreen (20.8%)

    Loreen looks comfortably through tomorrow, barring any surprises. De Vet Du still look great value at anything over evens.

    • Am I the only one who feels this is quite confusing? Wouldn’t have been easier and better to estimate the chances with a 50-50 approach?

      • Yes, it’s overall rather than each heat. Even so, it makes De Vet Du over evens stand out as the outstanding value.

        • It’s true, but this poll has been a good indicator in the heats, therefore I did not expect it becoming quite useless.

          A 2.25-2.5 for De Vet Du is very good value, even if it’s only for the show they are putting. Imagine a AC head-to-head featuring De Vet Du and Loreen. How would that work out? 🙂

        • I laid The Fooooooooo in the AC market the other day, I might just top up my winnings and back De Vet Du as well

  9. HAHA looks like loreen is out, cant wait to see the comments of the Eurofans.

  10. I m also very sorry for my terrible predictions, I hope Croatia redepts me at May.

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