The Eesti Laul semi-finals concluded at the weekend with the two hot betting favourites, Kerli and the duet, Laura & Koit, qualifying from the more competitive second heat.
Yesterday, a supposedly random running order was published:
- Liis Lemsalu – Keep Running
- Koit & Laura – Verona
- Whogaux & Karl-Kristjan feat. Maian – Have You Now
- Lenna Kuurmaa – Slingshot
- Daniel Levi – All I Need
- Elina Born – In or Out
- Ivo Linna – Suur loterii
- Rasmus Rändvee – This Love
- Ariadne – Feel Me Now
- Kerli – Spirit Animal
Betting favourite, Kerli’s Spirit Animal, provided us with a fabulous spectacle of kitsch and glitter. If you’ve been longing for some nostalgic Eurocheese with a modern touch, Kerli absolutely delivered. The betting market initially reacted nervously to Kerli with a slight outright price drift; perhaps due to some subpar vocals in the latter part of her energetic performance. The expert jury had her in their top-4 regardless and she’s currently the most viewed performance from heat-2 on youtube, which has since reassured the market.
Laura & Koit’s Verona failed to make the jury top-4, but presumably bagged a very strong televote result, which helped them to qualify direct without the need of the newly installed second round public wildcard qualifier. The super-final in Eesti Laul will be 100% televote decided, so one must respect the duo’s chances should they get there. In fact, 2013 Eesti Laul winner, Birgit, followed a similar path, finishing second to last with juries in her semifinal, so hope is not lost for our Verona. One could argue the song is too dated for 2017, but in recent years we have often seen the Estonian public opt for the safest option over more original and contemporary entries. Verona’s classic presentation in evening attire could do very well, especially with a fair share of the grey vote in contrast to the edgy Kerli. The Estonian public may also remember that the last time they sent a duet to Eurovision they finished 7th, and could decide to stick with the formula that served them well in 2015.
Like last year, three entries will make the super-final, and according to the betting market, Elina Born’s In Or Out and Rasmus Rändvee’s This Love should have a good chance to find themselves in the top-3. Both are credible and competently performed entries that should attract some jury love. It remains to be seen if either has enough televote power to upset one of the two hot favourites.
Ariadne is an inexperienced newcomer with a cute little song that managed to chart in Estonia’s itunes and spotify charts. For a short time she was seen as a dark horse. Her presentation in heat 1, however, appeared very static, presumably resulting in a low jury score, as she only qualified via the second round wildcard vote. The fact that she couldn’t crack the combined televote & jury top-4 in the weaker heat makes me wonder how she could possibly make the top-3 in a tougher field without drastic changes to her stage presentation.
|Jury Top4 (Heat 1)||Qualifiers (Heat 1)||Jury Top4 (Heat 2)||Qualifiers (Heat 2)|
|Elina Born||Elina Born||Kerli||Kerli|
|Carl Philip||Ivo Linna||Daniel Levi||Laura & Koit|
|Karl Kristjan & Whogaux||Karl Kristjan & Whogaux||Liis Lemsalu||Liis Lemsalu|
|Lenna Kuurmaa||Lenna Kuurmaa||Rasmus Rändvee||Rasmus Rändvee|
|Ariadne (Wildcard)||Daniel Levi (Wildcard)|
The final will be held on March 4th. In the meantime, there’s a lively Betfair exchange market open and potentially some great value to be exploited.
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