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Denmark: Melodi Grand Prix 2017 Betting Preview

This year’s songs for Dansk Melodi Grand Prix hit iTunes and Spotify at midnight last night. It quickly became apparent that another country could be eliminated from the list of potential Eurovision contenders.

The three most popular of the 10 songs will advance to the super final. The winner will be determined by televoting and a 5-person fan jury panel.

  1. Ida Una – One
  2. Thomas Ring – Vesterbro
  3. Rikke Skytte – Colour My World
  4. Anja – Where I am
  5. Calling Mercury – Big Little Lies
  6. Anthony – Smoke In My Eyes
  7. René Machon – Warriors
  8. Sada Vidoo – Northern Lights
  9. Jeanette Bonde – Hurricane
  10. Johanna Beijbom – ASAP

The makeup of the entries is higher this year, but the better songs are still inferior to Heart Shaped Hole and Suitcase, the two preferred winners in 2015 and 2016.

Ida Una’s One is radio friendly, but rather repetitive and in need of greater development. A song that relies too heavily on too many whoooos and ahhhhhs, or in this case the word One dragged out to fill nearly ten syllables, just smacks of lazy ass writing.  It has the pacing and rhythm that tends to appeal to Danish televoters, but this is so lame.

Continuing the tropical house vibe, Thomas Ring performs the only Danish language song. With an international jury, this sort of song would tend to be ignored, but a fan jury might be swayed by the 2011 X Factor winner.

Rikke Skytte probably has the real coffin slot here being followed by 2016 runner-up, Anja. Colour My World is another song bereft of stronger writing with the song title being repeated ad nauseum. Where I Am starts like a 90s Soul II Soul release, but builds into a solid pop ballad, albeit slightly beige and monotonous.

Despite DR hinting that bands and duets would be banned this year, Calling Mercury serve up the delicate Travis-inspired Big Little Lies. Given male bands have won the previous two contests, it would be foolish to write off Calling Mercury’s chances. However, the subtle nature of the song might see it forgotten after Anthony’s lively Smoke In My Eyes. Anthony was one half of duo Anthony Jasmine who won the 2014 series of X Factor. From the linked video, it’s clear Anthony is more than capable of performing upbeat songs, and with a Basim-type presentation, he could be dangerous with this chartable song.

René Machon returns to MGP having previously taken part with Tina, who performed G:son’s Mi Amore, which finished 7th in 2015. He appeared to be intimidated by the occasion, so the same could happen again this year. Warriors is rather generic anyway and will likely be forgotten with Sada Vidoo following in slot 8.

Living doll, Sada Vidoo is well known in Denmark and comes to Melodi Grand Prix with the most unique song. The are some nice layers to Northern Lights, but it sort of feels like Agnete’s Icebreaker, in that the transition to chorus requires a drop in tempo, though less jarring than the Norwegian non-qualifier. It’s a good song, but I think there are better choices for Eurovision, given Denmark has first half semi final draw.

Jeanette Bonde’s Hurricane has the best chorus in my opinion, but like so many of the entries in this final, the song feels so under developed. The chorus and middle eight have impact, but the verses are nonexistent.

ASAP = Can’t Get You Outta My Head. Peter Wallevik has written for Kylie Minogue, so it comes as little surprise to hear some similarities in Johanna Beijbom’s song. ASAP is a bit of a dance floor track than a standout contest song, but the chorus is well worked, extremely infectious and the staging could greatly elevate it. Johanna’s vocals are reliable too, so from the pimp slot it should be making the super final. Crazily, Johanna is one of three contenders available at 25/1 from BET365. Christmas has come early!

There isn’t a clear front runner here, which is why it’s unwise to hit the short priced favourites so early. Instead, it’s worth looking at the running orders of the past few years for a pattern:

Super-finalist slots (winners in bold)

2016: 2, 6, 10
2015: 7 (no super-final)
2014: 2, 8, 10
2013: 6, 8, 10
2012: 1, 9, 10
2011: 1, 4, 6, 10

There tends to be a super-finalist from the first two slots, then one from the mid-to-late slots of 6-9, then the pimp slot. In 2015, DR’s preferred winner was Anne Gadegaard in slot 8, and in 2016 they were blatant in their favouring of Anja from the pimp slot.

2016 aside, DR tends to plant their main contender just before the end, so slots 6-8 should be of interest and this year that points towards Anthony and Sada. In my opinion, Anthony has the most chartable song, so he looks ridiculously long at 25/1 available from BET365. Likewise, Jeanette is also a very high at 25/1 given she has a contemporary pop song. The British centric betting markets already familiar with Sada from X Factor will probably dismiss her as a joke act, so her odds may drift in play if the presentation appears too esoteric. If pitched against two commercial pop songs in the super-final, Sada’s quirkiness could stand out.

The main thing you should be looking for in play is producer favour, which has been clear throughout 2012-2016. Who gets the confetti, gold staging and Danish flag unfurled on stage? These are past examples, but one of the acts will be elevated above the others to ensure the chosen one travels to Kiev in May.

Who would be the best option for Eurovision?

About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

12 comments

  1. Gosh…..this must be one of the worst Danish line-ups in recent history :-(. I personally would go for either Calling Mercury -has a certain cuteness and warmth- or Johanna Beijbom -which is a nice disco stomper-. But to be honest…..Denmark is going to struggle with whatever song they choose in the first half of semi #2. A pity, since previous years they had better line-ups… On the whole, I agree with you Gavster.

  2. Dreadful lineup. I think Sada, Anthony and Johanna will make the superfinal and I’d guess Sada will win it overall.
    Their best option? Maybe Johanna, but they’ll be hard pressed to reach the final whatever they pick.

  3. The 2014 spending has really fucked Denmark, they are now too afraid to try anymore and it’s got to the point were I expect Denmark to suck every year.

  4. As of now, Ida Una is the favourite with all bookmakers but William Hill. Although she’ll probably be in the top 3 of the televote, I think her chances are overrated. Jeanette Bonde’s odds, on the other hand, look ridiculously long (currently available at 22/1).

    • There’s been lots of activity on the Betfair outright today with someone very keen to back Ida at a very short price. I’ve laid a fair bit given winning from slot 1 would be quite a feat. I think one of the last two will be in the final 3, but tend to favour Johanna. 22/1 is crazy on Jeanette though.

  5. Sad for Calling Mercury. Their song is very very cute and miles better than stuff in 2015/2016, but I am sure they will suffer for the sins of their boyband fathers 🙁
    Ida sounds pretty good. Wouldn’t oppose her song.
    Anja is my love. I seriously lost my interest about Eurovision for a month or so after she was so shamelessly robbed.
    That’s my personal final 3.

  6. ESCToday reports that Danish broadcaster DR has decided to give the local fans a significant power in the selection process who will be responsible for 50% of the result on Saturday’s show,

    With 5 fans now having a 50% voting power in choosing the Danish entry for Eurovision what could possibly go wrong…..

    http://esctoday.com/141371/denmark-dr-presents-fan-jury-dansk-melodi-grand-prix-2017

  7. I think the 3.50 for ASAP to go into the super final is value, based on what we have seen in the last years. You can try it in Unibet.

  8. from rehearsals Anthony is only one with gold staging

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