Home / News / Italy / Italy: Sanremo 2017 Betting Preview

Italy: Sanremo 2017 Betting Preview

Our regular commenter, DurhamBorn, returns with another Sanremo betting preview.

After the jury manipulations of last year, (voting down talent show artists) along with many contemporary acts splitting the televote, Carlo Conti was left with a shock result. Can he get things back on track this year? Maybe. There are enough quality artists and writers here to make for an interesting Sanremo 2017. So with just a small trail of clues, here’s a rundown of what to expect.

Al Bano – Di Rose e di Spine

This will be the 15th Sanremo for the 73-year old. Along with his ex wife, Al Bano represented Italy twice at Eurovision in ’76 and ’85. He has suffered particularly poor health this year including a double stroke, so maybe his health insurance won’t stretch to him going all the way to Kiev – though after last year…

Best odds 16/1 @ BET365

Elodie – Tutta colpa mia

Elodie was second in this year’s Amici talent show and has one of those traditional, gravelly Italian singing voices. However, since then her profile has faded. Eurovision 2014 representative, Emma Marrone, has a writing credit for Tutta Colpa Mia. In fact the two live together and are good friends. Universal will see this as a way to stick rocket boosters to her fledgling career. The song will be crucial if she is to get over the anti Amici jury bias, though it’s highly likely that Marrone will have have played to Elodie’s vocal strengths. Bookies have made her a tad too short given her talent show profile.

Best odds 8/1 @ BET365

Paola Turci – Fatti bella per te

Warner Music sent some of their best acts last year and the jury marked them down. This year, it appears they’ve struggled to find any acts willing to participate. Having said that, Paola is talented and won the newcomers section back in 1989, though a repeat in the ‘bigs’ section probably won’t be on the cards.

Best odds 25/1 @ BET365

Samuel – Vedrai

This is the ex frontman from the group Subsonica, who have won stacks of awards over the years since they started back in 1996. It’s difficult to predict what we’ll get from him as a soloist, but I’m fairly confident we won’t be seeing him in Kiev.

Best odds 40/1 @ BET365

Fiorella Mannoia – Che sia Benedetta

Put simply, Fiorella is an Italian megastar. She started her career way back in 1968, but is still capable of releasing top drawer songs. In this year’s lineup, she is well capable of challenging for the podium. The big question is, is it too obvious? Maybe. But she’s a quality artist, and for anyone betting on this event, you will need to respect her chances.

Best odds 4/1 @ BET365

Nesli & Alice Paba – Do retta a te

Nesli is a well liked and respected artist who has moved away from rap to a more mainstream pop sound. Alice won the last edition of The Voice and is the first act from the franchise to enter Sanremo. It’ll be interesting to hear their song, but it’ll probably fall well short of challenging the podium in this field.

Best odds 25/1 @ BET365

Michele Bravi – Il Diario degli errori

Bravi is an X-Factor 2013 act and scored a number 1 single soon after the show. Since then, his profile has waned. What’s interesting here, though, are the song writers; Federica Abbate and Cheope are probably the best contemporary song writers in Italy with smash hits like Roma-Bangkok (biggest hit of 2015 and 160-million YouTube hits), to last years 2nd-place finisher and Eurovision entry from Francesca Michielin. For this reason we cant totally discount Michele until we get the song. Michele made headlines today by admitting falling in love with a guy during a two-year relationship. This is sure to raise his profile with the audience, and if his song is decent, he could really score well on the televote. We will need to see how Michele adapts to the pressure of the Ariston stage, as inexperience might be his downfall.

Best odds 16/1 @ BET365

Fabrizio Moro – Portami Via

Fabrizio won the newcomers section back in 2007, and the year after finished 3rd in the ‘bigs’ section. He has tended to write songs for other big Italian artists, including Fiorella, so it’s a surprise to see him here. Maybe he has a song he thinks is good enough to present himself.

Best odds 14/1 @ BET365




Giusy Ferreri – Fatalmente Male

Since finishing 2nd in the first Italian X-Factor in 2008,  Guisy has gone on to sell over 1.8 million records and had the biggest hit of 2015 alongside Baby K with Roma-Bangkok that went 8-times platinum and amassed over 160-million YouTube views. She benefits from having song writer, Roberto Casalino, who gave us Marco Mengoni’s L’essenziale. This suggests Sony are pushing her hard. The 37-year old has appeared at Sanremo twice, finishing 9th and 10th. The problem she has is the jury gave her next to nothing both times. Can she win them around this time? Casalino is a master at bringing out the best in the artists he chooses to write for, so it’s highly likely he’s given her a song to suit both sides of the vote.

Best odds 10/1 @ BET365

Gigi D’Alessio – La Prima Stella

Gigi is both loved and hated in Italy, but has sold over 20-million records since 2000. He comes from Naples where the loyal televote is always certain to turn out. I doubt he will challenge for the win, unless he has somehow picked the jury himself.

Best odds 9/1 @ BET365

Raige & Giulia Luzi – Togliamoci la voglia

Rapper Raige is another Warner artist. It’s probably fair to say he’s in the 2nd tier of Italian rap artists. Warner seemed to push him by getting their bigger acts feature on his songs. Giulia is pretty much an unknown though. She did the Italian voice over for Miley Cyrus in Hannah Montana, which isn’t the traditional route to Sanremo glory. Italian bookies have odds of 20/1. I think they missed another zero off the end.

Best odds 20/1 @ BET365

Ron – L’ottava meraviglia

Ron has already won Sanremo back in 1996 and last appeared in 2014. He gets his bus pass in two years and shouldn’t really trouble the win trophy. However, he is very popular and could score well with both the jury and televote. Listen out for the song to see if he’s capable of challenging the podium.

Best odds 14/1 @ BET365

Ermal Meta – Vietato Morire

Probably unknown to most people outside of Italy, but Ermal has been in the newcomers section three times at Sanremo. He has also written songs for most of the big Italian stars with two tracks on Emma Marrone’s latest album, as well as multiple tracks for Mengoni. He is one of the best writers in this years Sanremo and a welcome addition to the ‘bigs’ section.

Best odds 16/1 @ BET365

Michele Zarrillo– Mani nelle mani

Another singer-songwriter who has appeared at Sanremo several times, coming 4th back in 2001, Zarrillo is one you would think would settle for mid table, but has the talent and perhaps the jury appeal to do better with a strong song. Like many this year, he cant be discounted from a podium finish.

Best odds 16/1 @ BET365

Lodovica Comello – Il Cielo non mi basta

Sure to be one of the Eurovision fan favourites, Lodovica is famous for her role in the smash Disney Channel show, Violetta. A quick look at Facebook would make you think those millions of followers would ensure victory in the televote. Most, however, are from outside of Italy, with the majority based in South America. She probably has something uptempo that would make a good Eurovision entry. The jury wont take to kindly to a Disney song winning Sanremo and will probably prevent such a thing happening. One to watch though.

Best odds 20/1 @ BET365




Sergio Sylvestre – Con Te

Another act who made their name in this year’s talent show, Amici. It’s doubtful he can win without an amazing song, however, Alessandra Amoroso was close to him in Amici and is likely to get her fans to vote for him. The Italian bookies have him priced a short 2nd favourite. Do they fear a win, or do they simply want to collect all the talent show viewers’ Euros at silly prices? It’s the latter for me.

Best odds 8/1 @ BET365

Clementino – Ragazzi Fuori

Another rapper who will no doubt have a song aimed at the younger crowd. This is another way Samremo is attracting younger viewers and getting the Neapolitan style out there than pushing for the win.

Best odds 16/1 @ BET365

Alessio Bernabei – Nel mezzo di un applauso

Like Guisy, Alessio has Casalino as songwriter. Thats a huge plus as mentioned earlier. Nevertheless, it doesn’t change the fact Alessio has sung out of tune both times at Sanremo. He doesn’t really deserve a third appearance and the jury probably wont give him any help.

Best odds 28/1 @ BET365

Chiara – Nessun posto è casa mia

Chiara won the 6th season of X-Factor and appeared at Sanremo twice, coming 5th in 2015 in a very strong year where Il Volo romped the televote. She has struggled in the limelight and press/paparazzi cruelty has forced her to step back from the spotlight for a year. Rumours are that Mauro Pagani has arranged and produced her song for the writers, Niccola Verrienti and Carlo Verrienti. Pagani arranged Arisa’s La Notte, which finished 2nd in 2012 – a song considered a masterpiece by many Sanremo purists. I rate Chiara as the most talented artist in this year’s lineup and we might have something special here. A stripped back arrangement to show off her vocal qualities is rumoured. If she can score highly with the jury she might be able to challenge the podium.

Best odds 12/1 @ BET365

Francesco Gabbani – Occidentalis

Franchesco won the newcomers section of Sanremo last year and returns to the bigs section this time around. The 34-year old will need an amazing song to challenge the big guns in this lineup.

Best odds 12/1 @ BET365

Bianca Atzei – Ora esisti solo tu

Most of the Italian press questioned whether Bianca deserved a place at Sanremo 2015 and have the chance to complain again this year. Bianca is well liked from fellow artists though and has good contacts in the industry. Her song is by Kekko Silvestre of Moda. She has appeared with Kekko a few times and it’s obvious he likes her. He will have written her a radio friendly song with plenty of hooks. Even so, it will still be difficult for her to win.

Best odds 30/1 @ BET365

Marco Masini – Spostato di un secondo

Marco is very well liked and is a cracking singer, which helps. Over the years he has released many different styles and always seems able to re-invent himself. He is no stranger to Sanremo, but isn’t here to make up the numbers this year. In this lineup I would expect Marco to do very well and could be the surprise package that challenges the podium. He’s one to watch very closely once we hear the songs.

Best odds 12/1 @ BET365

It’s a very tough year to try to work out who will challenge the top three podium places without first hearing the songs. Gun to head, I’d say the ones to watch are Guisy, Chiara, Fiorella and Marco Masini.

Who do you think might win this year, and could they get Italy back in the Eurovision top-4?

Make sure you follow the ESCtips FaceBook & Twitter accounts!

About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

7 comments

  1. The Italian press have heard the songs and its looking very very tight as expected.You have to take their thoughts with a very large pinch of salt though as they are often way out and tend to show a lot of nepotism.However,
    The only song applauded by journalists who have heard the songs,,,,Ermal Meta.It looks like Ermal might win the critics award and that usually opens up a good jury score.The podium is in reach for him maybe if the public take to the song as well,so id add him to the likely challengers list.

  2. Lyrics to all the songs

    http://www.sorrisi.com/musica/sanremo/sanremo-2017-testi-delle-22-canzoni-gara/

    I have to say im really looking forward to Ermal Meta’s song.Im not sure if it will be too melancholy for the televote,but maybe the melody is uplifting with a message of hope over adversity (domestic violence) that can connect.That text looks very strong for the jury.
    As expected it looks like Guisy has a very hooky song that should be a big hit.Sanremo result will depend if she can sell it live and nail the televote.
    Masini,Chiara and Fiorella pretty much as expected.

  3. As expected a hard to call year where betting was around keeping Fiorella on side while trying to find a couple of likely challengers for the podium.Fiorella is still the one to beat,but if the jury do their job and vote down her far too safe song there might be a door open for someone.The likely televote acts like Guisy have had a terrible festival and are out of it.The only one who delivered was Gabbani and might do well.The talent show acts like Elodie and Sergio Sylvestre gave solid performances of average songs.They would have to landslide the televote and that doesnt look on the cards,though still slight chances.Chiara easily gave the best interpretation of a classy song and should score very well with the jury,but it isnt a televote song for the crowd.
    So in such a tight year if Fiorella is to be beat you would need a song that wins the jury and gets a good televote.The two most likely to have the firepower for that are Fabrizio Moro and Ermal Meta.Ermal winning the televote covers night might just give the jury the green light to make him the jury winner,and with the Italian public warming to him that might be enough.In tight years sometimes Sanremo winners grow over the week and he fits that.
    So my prediction in a very difficult year to call,
    Podium Fiorella,Moro and Ermal Meta,
    Winner Ermal Meta
    Critics award Ermal Meta.

    • Last year in the newcomers section the expert jury pretty much ruined Ermal’s chances with 6% to Gabbani’s 45%. Couldn’t the same thing repeat this year?
      I gotta say I was very much surprised not to see Mannoia or Moro in the top3 in the cover round. How the f did Paola Turci get 2nd there, her Anna Oxa cover sounded like shite to me?
      Thanks a lot for your insights btw, helped a lot.

      • Thanks Keyser,its a very tough year to work out.Looking at things i think Mannoia’s song is too safe to deserve a winning jury score (she might still get one however through nepotism).The jury is 60% of the final vote split between 30% pro jury and 30% public jury.The public jury is 300 members of the public from different ages/demographics.Ermal probably did so well in the covers due to the press vote,so we cant know if he also had a good televote or not.The press dont vote in the final,so he could flop.However in tight years sometimes songs grow over the week and gain traction.Arisa beat an odds on shot,and last year Stadio grew through the week.There is no doubt Mannoia will be very tough to beat,but if she is to lose then it might be if someone walks the jury vote by enough to put light between them and her (i dont see a runaway televote winner).Widows and orphans should not be betting on this years SR thats for sure.
        I guess the question for the jury is simple.Do you want to reduce Sanremo to a crowning ceremony?.If not, Mannoia gets turned over.If they do,she wins.

        These are the latest itunes positions.

        1 Fiorella Mannoia
        2 Michele Bravi
        4 Francesco Gabbani
        5 Fabrizio Moro
        7 Elodie
        8 Sergio Sylvestre
        15 Paola Turci
        16 Ermal Meta
        17 Bianca Atzei
        21 Chiara
        27 Samuel
        30 Giusy Ferreri
        33 Alessio Bernabei
        34 Marco Masini
        36 Nesli&Alice
        40 Gigi d’Alessio
        41 Michele Zarrillo
        47 Raige&Giulia
        49 Lodovica Comello
        55 Clementino

        • I agree with you that it is up to how Fiorella will be treated by the juries. It is slightly annoying that the expert jury is so hard to predict, but that also creates back value even this late into the festival. I also think that Sanremo is all about momentum, Stadio being the perfect example for that.

          Michele Bravi’s studio version is superior to the orchestra version, which explains doing so well on iTunes, Spotify and YT. I feel he could take the road of Michielin last year (who similarly had a far better studio version), although more likely is the road of Fragola.

          I am very torn on Ermal Meta. Stadio won the cover round. Il Volo came 2nd to Nek (who in the end lost to them). Which does make me think he is top3 material. But he isn’t charting well and his live singing is could be a reason for expert jury to lower his score.I feel like they pay more attention to younger artists’ vocals.

          At the moment I think top3 is Mannoia, Moro and Gabbani. But can see Bravi, Meta or Marco Masini taking that third spot. For the win, I must give the edge to Fiorella, although I think her odds are way too low now.

          On a side note, Italy could be contender at ESC with a few of these songs. I hope they win and get to host. That would be a glorious mess of a show 😀

  4. Again, not an easy one to predict at Sanremo this year.
    It’s difficult to decipher who the expert juries are going to get behind. Last year, they were dead set on crushing the chances of most previous talent show contestants so if I were Michele, Chiara, Elodie or Francesco, I’d be feeling the heat.
    Fiorella isn’t exactly inspiring me, but she has a sort of star power novices to Italian music like myself wouldn’t really understand. The expert juries got behind Stadio for what felt like old time sake, and maybe the same could happen with Fiorella this time.
    The one act I’ve got my eye on is Francesco Gabbani. There’s something telling me he could smash the televote on Saturday night, just on the pure outlandishness of the performance along with what is a great song. The juries loved him when he ran as a newcomer, but I doubt a gorilla doing interpretive dance is on their marking criteria for a good entry.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Close
Show Us Some Love ♡
Please Like & Follow ESCtips.com
Social PopUP by SumoMe