So with over a week of rehearsals behind us, we’re now at the business end of our five-month Eurovision betting journey. Tonight we’ll get our first 10 semi-final qualifiers and 10 first/second half slots drawn during the post-show press conference. Russia drawing first half could shake up the market a little.
The mist is beginning to clear having seen three live-show rehearsals. Even so, there are still several nations with borderline qualification status that makes backing or laying incredibly difficult.
Now the fun bit – trying to find 10 qualifiers from this tricky semi-final and unearthing some value:
- Czech Republic
- Bosnia & Herzegovina
In terms of betting value, I think Bosnia & Herzegovina are the best price for qualification, and being amongst friends, they should be through in 7th-9th. At circa 1.25 this afternoon, Iceland did represent value. There is some value in the top-3 market given how much of a step forward Greta’s song has taken. Running order is on their side, though Douwe Bob may also be in contention for top-3 if the televote marries up with the anticipated high jury score. It’s should be one of those two with Russia and Armenia taking the other podium places.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, are playing with numbers, to quote last year’s Irish entry. It’s likely Azerbaijan’s price will drift out to over evens in-running, so laying odds-on and backing after the drift could be a wise play. The UK-centric Betfair market is always fast to react to a dodgy vocal performance. I have Azerbaijan just sneaking through, but if Samra does miss out, who would take her place:
I think Austria is too dated to appeal, though I fully expect the market to shorten in-play. Croatia could make it through on the back of Nina’s much improved jury-rehearsal performance last night, though I’m not expecting a strong enough televote. Greece could just save their 100% qualification record if their diaspora turns up to vote – they’re not the worst in this semi, but the numbers aren’t in their favour. Estonia would be the favoured backup qualifier in order to maintain the ‘four qualifiers from the last six’ rule.
The last place market is also of interest with the current Betfair leader, San Marino, offering great lay potential. Any one of the forgettable songs from Montenegro, Moldova and Finland are in the running for this accolade; the latter is 8/1+!
I hope you all enjoy the show which is packed full of the usual self-deprecating Swedish humour, as well as an off-key snippet of Amir’s rehearsal. Good luck all! I hope you all have a very profitable night. If you haven’t got betting accounts yet, you can sign up for some here.