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Sweden: Frans – If I Were Sorry

After months of analysis and coverage, this year's Melfest season came to a close with the coronation of Frans at the newly named Frans Arena. Frans will hope If I Were Sorry scores Sweden a record equalling victory on home soil in May. It’s safe to say that since Frans’ Melfest win, the naysayers have been shouting the loudest across various websites and social media platforms, while those who respected Sweden’s chances at Eurovision 2016 have had to reassess their positions. That’s the unpredictable - and often combative - world of Eurovision betting. The Sweden antagonists’ main argument focusses on…
Song Appeal
Vocal Strength
Staging Potential
Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Cohesiveness of Package

Frantastic!

If I Were Sorry is a commercially relevant song that has the sort of understated appeal of Ed Sheeran, who is one of the world’s biggest selling artists at present.

User Rating: 3.31 ( 88 votes)

After months of analysis and coverage, this year’s Melfest season came to a close with the coronation of Frans at the newly named Frans Arena.

Frans will hope If I Were Sorry scores Sweden a record equalling victory on home soil in May.

It’s safe to say that since Frans’ Melfest win, the naysayers have been shouting the loudest across various websites and social media platforms, while those who respected Sweden’s chances at Eurovision 2016 have had to reassess their positions. That’s the unpredictable – and often combative – world of Eurovision betting.

The Sweden antagonists’ main argument focusses on the fact Frans failed to win the jury score, or dominate the phone vote by as great a margin as Mans or Loreen.

So why was Frans’ winning score much lower than expected?

Last year SVT introduced the voting app, but the system crashed during the final, resulting in the voiding of all app votes. 2016 is the first final to feature app voting and its far-reaching effects warrant greater scrutiny.

Last year’s Melodifestivalen final attracted over 1.5-million votes, yet this year’s saw more than 12-million votes cast due to both the availability of the app and the ability to award five votes to each artist. This has skewed the scoring beyond recognition and has separated 11 acts in a 12-strong field by just 17 points. David Lindgren, who came last on the public vote with 28-points, would have finished as high as 5th in previous years. So discounting Frans because he compares less favourably to his predecessors whose victories were won under different conditions seems rather simplistic and rash.

Mans’ victory in 2015 was the most emphatic in recent years, yet had the voting app not failed, it’s reasonable to suggest the result may have been more inline with this year’s points spread.

To add more detail, let’s look at the last five winners and how they compare to their closest competitor:

  • 2015 – Mans’s televote was 1.9 times higher than his 2nd placed rival.
  • 2014 – Sanna’s televote was just 1.08 times that of 2nd placed Ace. Sanna finished 3rd in a competitive Eurovision year.
  • 2013 – Freak year.
  • 2012 – Loreen’s televote was 1.5 times that of Danny Saucedo. Won Eurovision.
  • 2011 – Saade’s televote was 1.6 times ahead of Danny Saucedo. Finished 3rd at Eurovision.

This year, Frans was 1.5 times ahead of 2nd placed Oscar Zia, which is still in the region of other Melfest winners who went on to win or finish top-3 at Eurovision. Plus, if we accept the app vote has levelled the field, then Frans could have won by a much greater margin under the pre-app rules.

So what about the jury score?

This year’s Melfest was more competitive than I had originally predicted, but the jury members were Eurovision aficionados and ranked typically Eurovisiony songs highly. Even so, it was Ace and Frans that secured the most 12-points, but the latter was punished by the likes of Belarus and Australia not getting the song. Rather than the public vote, this is the one red flag for me, as it’s unusual to see a Melfest winner score zero from an individual juror, let alone two.

Having said that, If I Were Sorry still feels like a top-5 jury song, and with more industry expert jurors to recognise commercial success and originality at Eurovision, Frans’ song should standout in what is a lower than average lineup this year.

Frans topped the Sverigetopplistan and Spotify charts before andra chasen had taken place. He also secured platinum status faster than Mans, in addition to appearing on the global viral chart, which measures social trends. That contrasts quite strongly with the vitriol and negativity directed at the 17-year old since winning Saturday’s final – mostly from the fan community who wanted Sweden to send a more formulaic schlager ballad or dance floor banger. And that ultimately overlooks what is a commercially relevant song that has the sort of understated appeal of Ed Sheeran, who is one of the world’s biggest selling artists at present. Justin Bieber’s Love Yourself also fits the genre and Bieber’s song achieved worldwide success late last year, so there is a strong market for this music.

With the likes of Aminata and Loic doing well last year, the Eurovision tide has been shifting to recognise modern music, and If I Were Sorry does feel very now in terms of the type of music people are digesting.

We also have to recognise Frans’ ability to connect with the audience, as the reaction in Gävle was immense for a virtually unknown boy from Skåne, but his sincere, childlike persona won people over. That ability to connect through the television, which was even stronger in the final, is a huge benefit and reminds me of how Lena won people over in 2010.

Sweden will face very little competition for votes from their Nordic neighbours in May, and if drawn into a beneficial running order slot, I wouldn’t be so bold as to say Sweden can’t win on home soil just yet.

Are Sweden on the verge of another victory?

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

87 comments

  1. Odds are acting strange. Frans was a likely winner which dragged the odds to as low as 2.26? Frans wins and Sweden odds rise quite rapidly and Russia goes down from 6+ (in which it had risen due to Sweden odds falling) to 4.6.

    Eurovision odds are like stock market it seems, almost impossible to predict 😛

  2. It’s his to lose. But I think he’s still vulnerable to country that can stage a decent song, incredibly well and nail it vocally. But is there such a candidate in 2016???

  3. The 0 from Belarus says a lot.
    I’m guessing the app crashed, so the margin was a bit smaller than expected.

    Either way, the highlight of the show for was Anakin’s mother and Mikael Blomkvist.

  4. Gav, are you saying if you had an open chequebook, Sweden will stay at the present price (ish) regardless of what you threw at it?

  5. What amazes me is the haters.Masses of thumbs down already on the Youtube vid.Maybe they dont have as open minds as people gambling their hard earned.Fantastic song,Frans is starting to be a master at getting the audience to buy in to the narrative as well,a narrative that has never been sold as well before for me,
    However,i dont think this is a certain winner yet at ESC (though deserves to be fav).Its a poor year,and Sweden have a fantastic contemporary package.It can be beat though if a few others can get perfect staging sorted out.I dont think Russia will be beating it though.
    On a side note i was glad to see Oscar win the jury.I thought his delivery was superb and i much prefer him doing quality songs than fluff.

  6. Fantastic show, I look forward to what SVT will treat us to in May.

    Kudos to those on this site who predicted the Oscar top three, and he should be tremendously pleased with the Jury win. Ace Wilder probably never saw a top three result coming, I’m glad for her.

    There’ll be plenty of time to analyse all this later, but Frans, I don’t think has this in the bag at all. Beforehand, I was thinking if this guy wins the jury vote and smashes the televote he’ll be a justified market leader for Eurovision. As it’s turned out, the jury scores were fairly inconsistent and for all the hype generated around him, he finished with a lower televote percentage than Anna Bergendahl. Not to disrespect his efforts, the song is catchy and the way he performs it is incredibly palpable, just I can’t say with much conviction that this will take us back to Sweden next year.

  7. Fact: since the proportional televote scoring was introduced in 2011 this has the LOWEST televote scores for any MF winner. Even Robin Stjernberg got around 76 points.

    Considering that he was expected to win the televote by a landslide I would say that is extremely underwhelming.

  8. I think the app just levelled out the votes each song got a lot more – other than Frans, there was barely any difference between the number of points each song got from the televote.

  9. PurpleKylie: agree 100% Was expecting that final score to be “92” and not “68.” This is NOT in the bag.

  10. Stephen Colville

    Gavin, why do you think Frans did so much worse than you predicted? He lost the jury vote and won the televote by a much smaller margin. Would you say that’s bad for his chances at Eurovision?

    • Wait for the review, though my initial reaction was that Oscar was very strong. The presentation was typically jury friendly. As for the televote, the app has already been mentioned, so I’d like to see a breakdown first. Even so, he won and the improvements shown in tonight’s show bode well. I’d just like to add for all the vultures hovering, Frans hasn’t won Eurovision yet, but in terms of a complete package traveling to a low-quality contest, Sweden’s position at the top of the market is justified. Personally, I wouldn’t want Sweden red in my book.

      • Ok I really don’t understand why some people think it’s a ”low quality” year. I disagree and think this year is amazing song-wise, as there are so many different song genres and so many favourites. In fact I find this contest one of the most interesting ones in the last years. Last year only Italy and Sweden really stood out and the winner was SO predictable. But this year it is not the case. Many songs can fight for the prize and that’s the point. So why do you keep saying it’s a low quality year?

        • A lot of possible winners often means lower quality. It’s very unlikely there are a lot of songs that can win and all are amazing. It’s a lot more likely that there are a lot of mediocre songs that are fighting for the win. I would have to agree that this year is not a very good year song-wise. Betting-wise it can still be good. And this way more interesting for sure!

          • Well I wouldn’t call the songs of Cyprus, Russia, Latvia, Hungary, Armenia, Germany, Norway, Estonia and Netherlands mediocre, but maybe it’s just me. I love all of these songs so much and I think they can do very well and even win.

        • Since this site is very betting oriented, we all often try to put our personal tastes to one side, (easier said than done!) So, by low-quality year, it doesn’t necessarily mean lots of terrible songs, it just means nothing has really WOWed us and it may be an open year with no clear cut winner.

          To be honest I’m with you Profitelol, (nice name by the way), I think this year could be more competitive than it seems at first glance. This year has a good share of decent songs but almost none of them show any qualities we typically look for in winners. You have to try and see the contest a different way on sites like this, which is what sets them apart from the conventional fansites.

          • Of course. I tend to forget the true purpose of this site as I’m usually fond of chatting around about the songs. It’s just that I’ve been reading similar comments here and there and I’m opposed to them as many songs wowed me personally. But yeah personal opinion isn’t the point when it comes to betting/predicting successfully. Thanks! I agree with what you’re saying. And this site is really good – even though I don’t like knowing the results I can’t help but visiting it at the end 😛

    • The market seems to agree it wasnt a great result even though he won. changing places soon with Russia. Croatia also plummeting hard.. soon to singles maybe

      • Absolutely, Sweden is too short, as is Russia. The Market still doesn’t know who to back and people are lumping on Croatia as the next best thing. This is what happens in a low quality year.

        • Yeah, odds are likely drifting and shortening quite a few times before we hit rehearsals. There is no clear favourite which makes odds more sensitive I guess. It’s going to be a fun two or so months!

          • And the one song that people appear to have forgotten is Latvia. If one song should shorten, it’s that one.

          • Well, this is where we disagree 🙂 My prediction is Poland will shorten once people get over the shock it actually won 😛

          • Stephen Colville

            Agreed. Considering recent results, Latvia could very well be our winner now. And considering the standard of songs, I wouldn’t be entirely opposed to it. I’m wondering though, Is Croatia a legit threat? The song is quality, but I find it hard to believe it could actually win.

      • Traders year this Archi,,first one for a long time,good to see you by the way.Im taking Russia on below 4.5,but not enough to get stuck,love Croatia but its too short now for me,sold my win side out,kept 16s a place,

        • Good to see you too my friend! I’ve built a risk free greens on Russia, Sweden, Croatia and Poland. Small greens so as of now, but I’ll be trying to build it until rehearsals! Trying to be active with back-lay before rehearsals.. it’s harder than one might think, predicting the movements seems to be very tricky :/ Also need to find out which country is actually winning and act accordingly :p

          • I cashed out my whole book Archi a few weeks ago,wasnt happy with some of the reds and book was a green close so i took it and started again.I cant remember a year where everything is so wide open and to play for.On the bright side it will make for a great rehearsals week and chat room,big value might be on the table somewhere.

          • *cough* Poland *cough*. Poland will be this year’s Common Linnets or Loic Nottet. Mark my words 😉 But yeah, it’s going to be very interesting, and with the rule change.. need to figure this out..

  11. In fairness to Frans, I thought he’d do a lot worse on the juries than a narrow second. However, he should have won the televote by much, much more. What was it, around 14%? Could just be voter complacency of course but still that’s a low score, app crashing or not. With a good draw, he is a contender but an outsider for me, the current odds are way too low on him.

  12. The rapid shortening of Croatia demonstrates that punters are in panic mode. People so badly want one big obvious as hell winner, but they’re not getting one. As for myself, I’ve got a few quid here and there on certain countries to get high results, but honestly I’m not ready to deposit big money until rehearsals, it’s too open to do so. To avoid that, I’m gonna take a break from these songs until then

  13. I don’t see the jurors rewarding a song with such an unusual structure. Especially the eastern ones.
    And why the hell is Croatia shortening, have people seen her perform? She has absolutely no charisma or stage presence, as good as the song is. Honestly, while she was in The Voice, she didn’t smile once.
    Gonna buy me some Latvia before it shortens.

  14. Okay, now that it’s officially Frans in ESC, I’m not going to frame my theories in such a way that I harshly oppose him to the point of self delusion, I’m instead going to just try and pose what I think are valid questions and doubts without writing massive essays and trying to answer them myself.

    First question, which would be nice if it was addressed in the review; Is Frans at any disadvantage in the televote by competing with several other potential heartthrobs such as Sergey, Douwe, Donny, Justs, Freddie, and at a DYLF-y stretch, Nicky Byrne?

    I know that each of these guys are relative to their own songs and that this isn’t a raw competition of looks – but when you’re trying to attract the young female vote in musical reality-style competitions, you don’t often see this demographic so spoilt for choice and potentially split. Frans being a cute 1D-ish type boy is a core part of his overall package as well. I don’t think it would have won if he didn’t look the way he does.

    • *Forgot to mention Joe and Jake as competition for the teen girl vote.

    • Don’t forget Serhat with the creepy rapist appeal. Don’t underestimate young girls’ daddy issues.

      Seriously now, Frans’s appeal is much broader than just teen girls. And that’s coming from someone who doesn’t get the hype.

    • Ben Gray, you take that back about Joe and Jake! As a young female, I would not tap Joe or Jake with a 50 ft pole. The whole classic “white guys with a guitar” is tired and they both look like f**kboy creeps who message me on OKC. Just something to consider when you thinking about the “teen girl” vote.

      • I am obviously joking. Forgot to put emojis in to take the edge off. I’m actually not that much of an angry person (LOL!)

  15. So what’s the evidence for this bot? Sweden drifts because Frans win was much less conclusive than had been predicted (apart from the fact that 2s was lunacy anyway). Russia shortens in sympathy. Nothing unusual there.

  16. Not only don’t I think this can win but with a early draw (2nd or 3rd) it could struggle to make the top 10. We seem to think that just because it’s Sweden it’s automatically a contender to win. If this was the Portugese entry we would be saying top 10 on a good day but just because it’s Sweden we think that its all tied up already.

    • Agreed. It’s the favourite only because it’s the only one that we know exactly how it will look like in May.

  17. Again, I think people aren’t quite understanding how the app has affected the televote in MF: it allows people to award up to 5 votes per song, so lots of people are chucking 2 or 3 votes to almost everything, meaning everyone ends up with a huge number of votes (over 12 million cast last night) with little between them. With that in mind, to have a 6% lead out of 12 million votes isn’t bad at all IMO.

    • I agree with this point. I don’t know exactly how the app-voting works, but if the worst song of the night can get 28 points already, it suggests that it’s more difficult to stand out than with normal televoting. All songs had almost the same score in the 30-45 range, except Frans who had 68 points. Also, if you take this 28 points for David Lindgren as the base score, then compared to that, Frans has a ‘mark-up’ that’s almost 2,5 times higher than the number 2 of the televoting Wiktoria.

  18. 1st off I really like this song but it’s the biggest red I have on Eurovision and that was
    Before it won. Had layed at average 3.05 and those that got matched at 2.26 must be delighted. The fact that it didn’t win the jury vote and only had 14.4% of televote with the amount of coverage given to it in Sweden says it all for me. As much as I hated heroes last year I could see the appeal even if I did take it on for a time. Frans for me is just too plain for a Saturday night audience in a 26 strong song contest. With an early running slot it’s not even a top 4 for me. Even with a late running order unless others flop its just about atop 4.

    • It’s a good point about commercial relevance and that may see Frans get a good slot via the “random” hat draw, if they decide to help him. I see his type of song as exactly what ESC needs, as was the discarded Margaret, regardless of all the fanboys that don’t like songs that are out of their comfort zone and want to keep the competition as one of diva shouty ballads.

      However I don’t think the MF result was good for Frans’ chances in ESC.

      Regarding “Mans’s televote was 1.9 times higher…” etc: Using multiples to compare only has meaning if the basline is equal in all cases. As they’re not then multiples are useless and unintentionally misleading.

      The multi-voting argument mistakenly assumes that everybody except Frans benefits from extra votes. But it works both ways. Many people who had Ace or Oscar favourite with 5 votes, for example, will have just as easily thought that Frans wasn’t bad and deserved 2 or 3 votes as well. Votes he wouldn’t have got under the old system.

      • But that still doesn’t account for the levelling of the field due to the app vote, which was actually 5-votes for each act, rather than 5-votes in total. Under the old system, I think it’s fairly safe to assume Frans would have had more daylight between him and Oscar.

  19. I have to agree with Gavster

  20. The review is fair… although I consider this a rap-pop song so I think 4 stars for vocal strength is on the generous side, but that’s trivial. I’m willing to believe the app voting had a levelling out effect on the voting and that explains the percieved low score he got. That’s quite surprising though, I would have expected the app to propel Frans instead, while the more traditional telephone voters are drawn to the field.

    Anyway, Frans did get healthy jury support in MF. Saying he “lost” the jury vote is an overstatement as he was only one point behind Oscar if I remember correctly. I wasn’t surprised Belarus didn’t give him any points but I was surprised that Australia didn’t either. You’d think it would be to their taste.

    As Gav says, zero points from two sets of jurors is unusual, and I think this sets the trend for ESC. I’m reminded of when it was argued that Il Volo would walk the jury vote at ESC even though it was Italian televoters who sent them to Vienna, the argument being “a more sophisticated jury in Italy.” But as it turned out, Il Volo were 6th with Eurovision juries while they ran away with the international televote, and it more or less mirrored things in San Remo.

    Therefore, I think it’s slightly misguided to imply the MF juries are just Schlagerboy types and assume Eurovision juries will be more commercially minded. They are still looking for some quality in a conservative sense, but they are also holding back their love for anything overly cliché. Like Lena, Frans falls a little short of both these criteria, and both acts are relevant in their respective years too.

    The difference, I think, is in the field. I don’t think this year’s contest is as weak as 2010’s was. As well as a total lack of the uplifting sort of song that typically wins, there were no other entries anywhere near as commercial as Lena, but the contest has since moved quite steadily towards a more global sound and this year is more competitive.

    It’s going to be nerve-wracking for Sweden backers if he ends up lower than 4th with the juries. This is the key question people should be asking themselves. Will he? The televote at the end will have to give him a breakaway lead in that case.

  21. My view :- Yes the ability to give 5 votes to each artist free has really messed up this voting. (They will surely change that.) Also the public could give a maximum of 20 votes to 4 artists by telephone and SMS voting. What happened to one man, one vote?

    However, it is clear that the public liked ALL 12 songs. Frans only won the televote by only 4.9% just 23 points and then quite weirdly the next EIGHT songs were only separated by only 2.1%, just 10 points!! The difference between 2nd and 12th was only 3.6 % and just 17 points!! Basically a draw!!

    So it was ALL down to the juries and they could not decide their favourite either. The top 3 were separated by just 6 points and the Top 6 by just 50 points!! So basically the juries decided the contest if you compare the jury points to the combined points. They went for 4 songs where a few words were basically repeated over and over again around 20 times, very lazy lyrics.

    Frans got 4 x12’s, 2 x 10’s, 1 x 8, 2 x 6’s, and 2 x 0’s from the 11 International juries. This spread of scores suggests they were undecided on the song’s quality and that is not a good sign. In the ESC the jury has set criterion to score on of course. Can they really give Frans 12 points based on that criterion? Hit potential is not one of the EBU guidelines to the juries of course.

    In the end, Frans came 2nd to Oscar by just 1 point in the jury vote and beat Wiktoria by just 23 points in the televote. In the combined score Frans beat Oscar by just 24 points!! These results nevertheless suggest there was no standout song and it was not a convincing win. It would be good to see a split between App votes and other votes though. This of course does not mean Frans cannot win the ESC, he could.

    Bjorkman took over in 2002 and has had different scoring systems, but in those 15 years Frans has the lowest televote points and lowest combined points, the second lowest for both was Robin Stjernberg. That is how history will show it. We will see whether that will prove relevant??

    At the moment outside Sweden it is just the Bookies that say Frans will win, it needs to be completely validated outside Sweden of course. If this song charts across Europe on iTunes and does well in the more credible public indicators outside Europe that will tell us a bit more.

    With Sweden hosting and not singing live in the Semi, I’m not so sure Sweden are going to walk this. The last host to win was in 1994, 22 years ago.

    Food for thought and early days of course. I just feel something will emerge from the pack in the live rehearsals. Perhaps Ukraine or even the Czech Republic…………who knows?

  22. How much will ‘vocal capacity’ scoring be an issue for Frans with the jury vote. Because he doesn’t really show any in his song. Are the jury permitted to penalise him for not showing his vocal capacity in a song that does not require it, or do they just look at the overall package of what is on offer.

  23. Sweden have drawn 9th. That rules them out in my opinion with such a low key performance as well as my other concerns.

  24. There’s been too much written on social media today about how Fran’s 9th position will ruin Sweden’s chances of winning. “It’s too early in the order and too fragile a song to be remembered”. I’m not convinced by that argument.

  25. @Dickbits:

    It’s worth mentioning that my country Netherlands failed to get a single point from running order spot #24 from countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Israel, Montenegro and Albania. These…low-key, intimate entries are simply not so well understood in Eastern Europe. Having said this, I think Sweden’s 9th starting grid is indeed a disadvantage.

    • I think it was the fact that The Common Linnets performed an Americana song that it didn’t get votes from those countries, not that it was low key. Basim didn’t do well in that region either, which is something I said would stop him doing the double for Denmark in 2014. Music of a strongly American flavour such as Motown and Country isn’t part of the palette there, unless of course it’s huge global stars like Michael Jackson.

      • Hmmm, could be. But I think it’s a certain refined music taste that is more predominant in western countries. Take for instance this year’s Russian entry. That isn’t exactly a very ‘Russian’ song either (for me Russia 2009 was a more typical Russian flavored entry). In fact, it’s like a dated potpourri of Western flavored pop music elements from 10 years ago or so.

        The fact that music is American or not American doesn’t really make a difference for me. Nor does it make a difference for televoters and jury’s (You could also ask yourself why Macedonia gave 7 points to Netherlands). In fact, I think Eastern-European televoters didn’t know at all that ‘Calm After The Storm’ was an Americana/Country entry. I think they simply were a bit bored by it.

        Hence why I think countries like Sweden, Netherlands and Germany will this year struggle to gain lots of East-European votes. These entries are just a bit too genre specific for the ears of Eastern Europeans. Eastern Europe wants music that’s catchy and ‘straight in your face’. Not a well-aged wine, but a strong liquor.

  26. Remember for the eastern televote,in 2011 Sweden finished 3rd from slot 7 in a tight year and got very few points from the east,or the Balkans.They also didnt even get a 12 from any Scandi neighbour.Azer won that year by getting a good spead of 8s and 10s.Tight years dont need the slew of 12s or even the usual picking up mid range points from everywhere.
    I think it comes down to price though.The contest is wide open,but Sweden have a song that “could” win.7.5ish looks a fair price to have them green,or at least keep them from being red.

    • Yes, but if we look at recent winners, then Germany 2010, Sweden 2012, Denmark 2013, Austria 2014 (10 points from Ukraine and Georgia) and Sweden 2015 got points from all over the place. Most remarkable…..high points from Eastern Europe.

      Sweden 2015 -Frans- for me lacks a certain power to cross easily the 290 points margin (in the old system. In new system perhaps 580 points). A winner need to cross that margin. 238 points is then simply not enough. Add to that a relatively early running order draw, and I don’t see Sweden to easily exceed the 200 points mark.

      Lastly…..let’s see what the rehearsals can do. In just two weeks time a new hot top favorite can emerge that has everything to receive points from all countries….or at least 39 out of 42 countries. Just look at Austria in 2014.

  27. you go away for a week and everything goes pear shaped. i think a lot of people are overthinking this. personable non-threatening male + singing established big hit = high finish. plus the competition, such that it is, is fragmented and will cancel each other out causing a wide spread of votes. i’m expecting a 2010 type result. certainly this will not finish outside of the top 4 so the value seems obvious.

  28. I am the only one who sees value at 8s? Really Frans has only 12.5% chances to win at this point? I doubt it.

  29. Not the only one mate – but lets keep such thoughts on the downlow for now. Once he has charted all round Europe, these days will be just be happy memories…

  30. Absolutely no point backing Frans at current odds. The jury results will be announced first and he’s highly unlikely to score well with them and will drift markedly

  31. The gamble with this one is whether or not it will chart high and become a hit pre-contest all over Europe, If it does, it will probably win.

    If it doesn’t, it won’t have a chance.

  32. Great song and a strong contrast to many others. The real danger to Russia if both the voters and juries get it. However the draw and possibly jury vote may make this task difficult and Russia is the more likely winner at this stage. needs a top stage show to help.

  33. I’ve been thinking back to the double bagel Frans scored with the Australian and Belorussian juries. Does anyone here think it’s conceivable, especially with Belarus, that they were counter-voting against Frans i.e ranking him low to try and prevent his high quality song getting to the contest and likely beating both of the aforementioned countries once there? Again, just an afterthought.

    • We’ve seen similar practices at the contest before. Remember how in 2014 as I recall it, the Armenian and Azerbaijani juries ranking the Netherlands and Austria outside each of their top 15 rankings. Surely, that too was an acknowledgement of the victory threat each of those countries carried, hence the low rankings.

      • Hmmm what chicanery is afoot? Interestingly I’ve done some maths and if you take out just those 2 results Frans’ average jury score is almost the same as Loreen’s and just a point behind Mans’.

        • Exactly. I’m much less worried by the juries given the commercial success so far. I still think we have a top-4 jury song and potential televote top-3. We just need to see how Frans’ song connects with the rest of Europe during the rehearsal period.

  34. I still can’t see it even coming top 5 especially with 9th in the running. Ive listened to it about 10 times probably more and its leaves no impact what so ever, I’m actually trying my best to like it but I just can’t. I’d say if I listened to it on my iPod maybe my opinion will change but in a live TV show I can’t see this working.

  35. I sort of agree with Cathal. I think, like France, it’s a song that’s better for listening than for a big TV show. Obviously they’ve done something quite nice in the visuals department, but with an increased number of eastern jurors to win over, I do think it has an uphill struggle winning the whole contest. It has to be top 4 at least with the juries and then pretty much win the televote. With Sergey being a televote magnet in the east and other, more broadly appealing songs capturing audiences who aren’t teenagers to those in their early 20’s, Frans doesn’t have this in the bag even if he is doing well on Spotify. This is, like Cathal says, still a TV show, not a radio contest.

  36. Something else against Frans is the fact that a lot of the countries in which he could be expected to do well on the televote are those with high diaspora populations. Instead of getting 12 from the UK and Ireland for example, which will be hard enough given the running order, he’ll more than likely be looking at 8 below Poland and Lithuania (if they make the final).
    Frans needs every western 12 he can get to make up for what will be a significantly weaker Eastern score, and all things considered I can’t see him being dominant enough to do so.

    • With that theory, surely Lithuania and Poland would have been awarded the UKs 10s and 12s every year pre-2013?

      2012 – 12. Sweden 10. Ireland 8. Spain
      2011 – 12. Ireland 10. Switzerland 8. Moldova
      2010 – 12. Greece 10. Turkey 8. Romania

      Last time I looked out my window, the UK was majority English, so it’s highly unlikely we’d be overruled by residents of Eastern origin.

      It’s also looking up the scores for last year’s contest that have been redistributed under the new format. We didn’t get a different winner, but significantly, Russia were demoted to 3rd place.

      • I’m looking at last year’s split results. I find it highly unlikely ‘This time ‘ won the televote through merit or that Poland would have come second. These diasporas are a small minority of the population, but their votes seem to make up a larger percentage of the total and the greater concentration of these votes does have an impact.

        I agree we can overthink the voting change and at the end of the day Frans getting 8 out of 12 televote points from a few countries may be neither here or there- especially if the 10s and 12s are going to countries that aren’t a threat.
        It’s just a little thing I’m bearing in mind.

    • There’s still a jury to win over and if you come dead last there, the televote will make little difference.

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