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Podcast: Melodifestivalen 2016 Final Preview

It’s our Melodifestivalen 2016 Final podcast with good friends of ESCtips, Tobias Larsson and Aftonbladet’s Torbjörn Ek.

@ESCtips_Gavster
@ScandieAndy
@Tobbe_Ek
@TobsonHelsinki

Read our Final Preview article by clicking here.

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

21 comments

  1. “What would Ukraine do?” is actually brilliant and should become a thing.

  2. Iv noticed this year Bet365 have had cash out running on the MF markets.Have to say thats a very punter friendly move from them.I managed to cash out Ace level,and Lindgren at 36% of stake.All helps those %s creep up on the contenders.Hopefully they keep doing that on other ESC markets and others follow.Worth considering in future is 365 is the same price as others its worth putting the stake down with them with the cash out option.

  3. D’you know what? I’m going to stick my neck out and call WIKTORY.

    I think she’s got bucketloads more charm than Frans and the song is incredibly infectious and far more Eurovision (and jury) friendly. I believe the pros on the podcast as well when they say that Wiktoria doing well is a liaison mission for Bjorkman to attract world class talent to Melodifestivalen and secure its future. Where I think they’ve gone wrong is assuming that her winning isn’t a priority. Doesn’t that just weaken this buttering up campaign if she doesn’t?

    Tin foil hat time as well. Quite a few people watched that 3D demo of the Globen stage along with the pictures and said it looks like Wiktoria. Wouldn’t that be a funny coincidence…

    I know Gav likes to wage his wars on Betfair but how about I get mega kudos on the front page if I’m right? 😀 and if not then… I’ll do something really self-deprecating on the next Eurovision Wipe.

    • I think I might join you on the Wiktory train. That smile of hers is worth 200pts itself.

      • I know. I have not heard the end of this Frans buzz for the last 2 weeks and I’ve had enough. It’s time to end this absolute madness. His song has zero Eurovision winning qualities whatsoever. The package of If I Were Sorry is just so infinitely shite, and my family all agree with me.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knNWB9d4NIU

        I shared this video with our friends on Sofabet as well, but someone from this site chose not to pay any attention to it when I shared it with them.

        This is the problem when you get so bloody overinvested in Melodifestivalen, you fall under Bjorkman’s spell. It is expertly crafted television that leads you down a path, and when you’re betting on it and paying attention to all these Spotify statistics, it’s incredibly easy to fall victim to massive confirmation bias. Even if Frans does win MF, this is nothing more than a glorified Swedish version of the Axel Hirsoux effect at play. I’m dead serious.

        I have given 3 episodes of MF a miss this year and have done zero research into it. I’ve backed Wiktoria to win outright at 8.4 as my one and only bet on Melodifesitvalen.

        • Hi Ben, love your theories, but steady on with the self-congratulation and thinly veiled digs. On the podcast I said only Frans and Wiktoria can earn a respectable result for Sweden. As such, my own book is balanced between those acts. However, unlike when Robin Stjernberg won in 2013, Wiktoria isn’t the highest charting act.

        • Part of the Frans buzz is the psychological need to have a credible favourite (ie uncertainty reduction). But Sorry is no Heroes or Euphoria. In fact low key stuff, even of quality, will have a harder task among 43 entries than 12.

        • What a nice family you’ve got. Mine lost interest halfway through the recap, and then they said they only liked Panetoz and the “little box man”.

    • Personally when I first saw the mocked-up recap on the Sunday after AC, I thought that Oscar and Wiktoria were the ones that stood out the most, but I would put my money on Wiktoria being the one to upset the Frans Hype Brigade as she seems to have some level of momentum unlike Oscar. I’d agree that the pro-Frans camp seem to have the blinkers firmly one. I got into a pretty heated argument with a friend who’s firmly on the “Frans will win Eurovision” camp, I tried to argue “but what if he gets drawn #2 or #3 on Monday?”, they just completely brushed it off with a lame “anyone can win anywhere in the running order, Sertab was #4, running order is irrelevant”. Riiiiight, then explain to me how no-one has won being earlier than the #10 slot since the semi finals were introduced.

      At this point I’m sick of arguing with people who can’t see the bigger picture, I’ve already argued with people over MGP and the Margaret-hype and both times I was proved right.

  4. Ok, so merely collecting some stats:

    – Frans received the highest heat audience poll in Melfest history. Better than Zerlmerlöw and even in the same heat with Molly Sandén, called by many the most anticipated act of the year and a default winner just a couple of weeks ago.
    – Nearly 2 million youtube hits (1.3m live performance+600k official video clip) in less than two weeks
    – Nearly 6 million spotify streams in less than two weeks
    – Platinum and leader in Sveriges Topplista in less than two weeks
    – Landslide leader in itunes sales, every day since release.

    I don’t know how you feel about this, but every juror kiling it off or putting stuff like Kizunguzungu etc ahead of it should be banned from giving points in professional music competitions, because of not being in touch with reality and demonstrating shocking cluelessness about what people actually like.

    • Frans,the jury will give it a massive score i expect,Sweden will stay short until the rehearsals at ESC and probably favourite or second favourite.People who stake a lot of money on the outright market back songs that can win,and songs that have potential buried in them the market hasnt spotted or undervalues.The second part is more personal to the punter.The first part isnt.Trying to get your book into a good position with big reds on songs that can win is very difficult.Last year i had 50s for the 2nd 3rd and 4th at ESC yet lost on the outright that took out 60% of the years profits simply because i waited far too long to get Mans level/green.
      Every market has people who have different views and everything has a price,but on MF i see no value at all in taking on Frans,far better to sit it out if you think its hype,being wrong wont be costly then.
      Poland was hype not backed up with evidence and seasoned layers took them on or seriously considered taking them on because the odds were far too short.Frans has a fantastic song,backed up with amazing stats and there is no value going against him.Just my opinion.

    • The problem with Melodifestivalen juries is that they aren’t quite the same as Eurovision ones ,in that they are largely Heads of Delegations from various countries. This means that they tend to be middle-aged gay men and big “Fans of Eurovision”, which often gives uptempo schlager-ish songs a boost. It would therefore come as no surprise to see Frans not receive 12 points from several of the juries. Wiktoria and Molly should both do pretty well with the juries imo.

      • Sure, jurors are entitled to their own preferences and there’s nothing wrong about giving 12 points to their personal favorites. I’m not saying they have to comply with mainstream taste, they shouldn’t.
        But completely killing off an entry that has proven commercial relevance like no other would seem to me like a misinterpretation of their duty.

  5. this is i think a walkover. i was confident enough to go in under evens on Frans and tbh i think 1.5 still holds a smidgen of value. should be 1.3 imo.

    • I got him @1.6 a few days ago just as Wiktoria’s price dipped. The televote isn’t in doubt, but I’m just fascinated (also agitated!) to see which way the juries go. Frans doesn’t need to get 10’s and 12’s across the board from them, yet if he does than he’ll be a major threat in May.

  6. Knew frans song was special from the moment I heard the full version and swiftly took some 9.0. It’s so well produced and current juries should really have no problem complying with what should be a Avalanche televote.

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