Home / Eurovision Tips / Melodifestivalen 2016: Heat 1 Betting Preview

Melodifestivalen 2016: Heat 1 Betting Preview

The Melodifestivalen 2016 season is here and the pre-lives market leader, Ace Wilder, will hope to build on her favourite status in Göteborg.

Heat 1 – Göteborg – February 6th

1. Samir & Viktor – Bada Nakna

Since last year’s Groupie, Samir & Viktor have grown from strength to strength with another summer hit, Saxofuckingfon. With Kempe on board, we should expect a stronger hook. The title of the song is quite suggestive, so expect a stage show packed with scantily-clad guys and girls.

Groupie qualified via andra chanson last year, so it’s not worth taking the skinny ‘direkt’ prices if, as expected, Ace has the better upbeat party song. Early press reports suggest a much stronger package, so they should have a pass straight to the final. Having said that, with strong songs in slots 6 and 7, it makes Samir & Viktor’s job much harder.

2. Pernilla Andersson – Mitt Guld

Pernilla first hit Melfest in 2011 with the song, Desperados, which went out of the contest at andra chansen. Early reports on this year’s song suggests a non-standard chorus. Maybe one to pencil in for last place.

BACK PERNILLA LAST PLACE – 3.75 @ UNIBET

3. Mimi Werner – Ain’t No Good

Ain’t No Good is rumoured to be a Country song. Cut out those sighs though, as Sweden can be quite receptive to the genre, with Hasse Andersson the most recent popular example. Mimi’s lower profile will probably count against her in a heat packed with other popular female stars, but she could nab an andra chansen place.

4. Albin & Mattias Andreasson – Rik

Albin is in need of a hit, and with former EMD singer, Mattias Andreasson, he’s hoping to make an impression in the final. EMD qualified ‘direkt’ in 2009, but Mattias Andreasson finished a lowly 5th in his heat in 2012. It appears former popularity will help neither artist. Something tells me they might be overshadowed and finishing 5th.

5. Anna Book – Himmel för två

30-years since her first participation in 1986, Anna Book returns to Melfest for the fourth time. ABC finished 5th back in the 80s, but her more popular hit, Samba Sambero, only finished 9th. It seems Anna will be returning with her stock schlager disco offering. If it’s fun, it could sneak past Samir & Viktor, especially if there’s a repeat of last year’s app-voting fiasco.

ANNA BOOK DISQUALIFIED.

6. Robin Bengtsson – Consolation Prize

Robin was the third-placed runner-up to Kevin Borg in Idol 2008. More recently he’s been trading under the name B Robin and released the EP, Under My Skin. The writing isn’t exactly legendary, but for Melfest, he’s teamed up with an experienced writing team and has promised a catchy chorus. A quote from SVT reports that “it’s not a typical Melodifestivalen song”. The press screening was encouraging, with many bloggers making it their favourite track. The problem is Robin has to overtake one of Samir & Viktor and Ace Wilder to make the final. I recommend holding fire until the snippets and staging are released.

If you want to take a position on Robin making the final, there is a double-qualifier market at UNIBET. The Ace/Robin double is 7.5.

7. Ace Wilder – Don’t Worry

Ace reunites with Joy & Linnea Deb, and are joined by Anton Malmberg Hård af Segerstad, who also co-wrote last year’s Melfest and Eurovision winner, Heroes. Early rumours suggest a highly competent song that should be guaranteed a high finish.

Ace went away quietly following her narrow loss to Sanna Nielsen in 2014 and has tried to forge a pop career. Several songs later, she’s been given a second bite of the cherry and should not be underestimated. Early conversations with connected Swedes suggested Ace is a contender, but this song lacks a strong enough hook. This was confirmed in the press screening. There’s a huge stage show, so again, I recommend holding fire. If you do want to back Ace to win though, LADBROKES have the best price at 5.5.

BACK ACE DIREKT – 1.35 @ UNIBET

Pre-snippet prediction:

  • Ace Wilder
  • Samir & Viktor
  • Robin Bengtsson
  • Anna Book

Thursday Snippet Update:

The songs are worse than I expected and even Samir & Viktor have failed to meet the low threshold I had in mind. The duo’s following is huge, but given the strength at the backend of the running order, Samir & Viktor look the most likely shock non-direkt from the two big names. If you’re aged 14+ what is there to invest in here?

Pernilla has done little to convince me she can escape last place and 2.5 at Unibet still looks value. Had she not been performing from slot 2, I might have felt different. Mimi Werner may also be value at 4.25, as her country vibe Ain’t No Good, but with Anna being disqualified, TV viewers may get behind the song.

Albin & Mattias looked set for 5th place before Anna got disqualified, so they should find themselves battling for the final andra chansen place with Mimi Werner.

Robin is the best of the rest, but appears to be lacking a stage show. The harmonica provides a great memorable hook, and there’s a sense he’s the most capable act to boot Samir & Viktor into andra chansen.

Ace has a song that should win this heat, but maybe not win Melfest. Until we hear the full song, it’s difficult to gauge opinion.

Prediction: 1. Ace 2. Samir & Viktor 3. Robin Bengtsson 4. Mimi Werner

Share your predictions and thoughts in the comments section…

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33 comments

  1. Ace on the outright and also a small stake on Mimi Werner.Reason ,she has superb connections within the country song writing scene including being related to Jill Johnson,MF royalty and huge country star.That 4th place for AC might just be in reach as i think Albin and Mattias are vulnerable.

  2. Great as always to see the return of the Melfest betting previews Gav. Looking forward to seeing your verdict and helpful tips for the remaining three shows. As for Goteborg, it’s bursting with competition for the top four slots. It seems five to six entrants could easily get out of the semi with a decent enough package, not to mention a few who could finish first.

    Samir and Viktor. The pair will be charged up to the max for three minutes, younger viewers will vote for them in their droves. What helps their bid for Melfest glory, as you’ve alluded to is the way with the summer anthem Saxofuckingfon they’ve gathered more and more momentum and go into this contest likely to build on their already strong commercial success. Since it’s televoting only, I think this could win the semi (I’ll explain more once I get to Ace). This to me is going direkt and the snippet should indicate whether they get first or second.

    Pernilla Andersson. Without sounding disrespectful I think 6th is the ceiling for Mitt Guld. Being a country artist almost doesn’t come into the equation when her recent songs just aren’t memorable enough. It surprises me considering the vast amount of submissions this year that she slipped through the net so to speak. Not expecting much here.

    Mimi Werner. With her songwriting ties to Nashville, Ain’t No Good surely has to be a country song. As a fan of this style I would like to see some representation of it in the final. Although, from this order it looks as though Pernilla and Mimi are being used as a buffer between the (likely to be) loud and upbeat entries of Samir and Viktor with Anna and Ace. I could make a case for Mimi getting to A.C if the snippet is decent.

    Albin has had commercial sucess but it has been over a year since his last big selling single. His pairing with Mattias could be akin to the Behrang Miri, Victor Crone effort from last year’s first semi final. I agree that they should contend for an A.C spot.

    I’m gonna need help figuring out Mrs. Book. I don’t know a lot about her, her sales, popularity, exact style etc. When the entrants were first announced I saw her as being a slice of comic relief that would end up fifth in Goteborg. I’d like hear how people rate her chances because I have no clue. Could she come last? Could she go direkt? Who knows?.

    Bengtsson. I agree Gav that his discography isn’t great. Although in a tight semi he does have more going for him than others. For instance, he’s the only male soloist here, not to mention that the sixth slot should be of benefit to him. Consolation Prize isn’t your run of the mill song title which indicates perhaps there’s more to this entry than we think. I think it will contend for top 2.

    Our lady who doesn’t like working overtime or the 9 to 5 is back. Ace Wilder with the Debs and Segerstad on-board have penned Don’t Worry, a song from whispers I’ve heard that’s a fusion of Pop with some Blues/Jazz influences thrown in to the mix. The issue I have with Ace is that Busy Doin Nothin’ was the archetypal song for her, and I haven’t heard anything since (i.e Riot and Stupid) that is on that same level of quality. She’s telling us with this song not to worry, but my pre-concern is that she’s quite experimental with her sound, and Monkey on my Back is a recent example of where this has slightly backfired. I believe this could go both ways, if we get the next best thing after BDN, she’ll sail through, another MOMB and I think Andra Chanson awaits. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_DtSaZssU
    Samir and Victor should battle with Ace for best uptempo song of the night.

  3. Gav, with Ace I’m in two places, for me she’s not guaranteed to go direkt, just because her first time went so well, although I could be very wrong. I’m not yet in a financial position to back/lay her now, really want to see the snippet before the show. My theory with Ace is that I think she needs Melfest more than Melfest needs her. Her recent material since her 14′ appearance hasn’t sold a lot. Provided S&V and Bengtsson produce the goods, I think there could be a Paparizou style shock for Ace, but I’m not brave enough to lay her yet!

    Kylie, sorry! should of clarified that I think S&V have a strong chance of topping Goteborg show, not the final itself. The Juries definitely would destroy them there.

  4. I wouldnt have Ace red in any outright book until we know how good Molly Sanden’s song is.Highly likely this year is a three horse race.Ace,Molly and one yet to show themselves.Going into the first heat with Ace red when she sails through would be a disaster in my opinion.
    I agree Ace needs MF ,but MF also needs her in the final challenging the win to keep the interest for Molly later.

  5. Based on the running order and the song writers involved Ace is the clear favourite in the semi and it appears SVT who have likely heard the entry tend to agree.

  6. Off topic regarding this year, but just for interest’s sake: Do you think Ace would have done better than Sanna at Eurovision? As much as I loved her song, the performance might have lost much of its impact because of the live backing rule at Eurovision, and so I don’t think she could have challenged Conchita or the Common Linnets. It will be interesing to see whether this song is more “Eurovision-friendly” with regards to technicalities as dancers and backing vocals, just in case she really does win this time. SVT will not want to embarrass themselves come May.

  7. Icebreaker > Don’t Worry at this moment

  8. It’s clear that ESC is about whole show, but song always firmly establishes performance. Look at Il Volo (background changed during the choruses) or Alexander Rybak (here the dancers dance all the time but they change moves during choruses) or Mans Zelmerlow (background changes and also some choreography enters).

  9. Generally jury in the Eurovision Song Contest is better from year to year, but for me the key issue is that they still like more the West than East, and I hope they will sacrifice Sweden for Norway this year.

  10. Anna Book disqualified! What will now happen with the bets people made on her, and what will happen with other bets in this semi?

  11. Back Ace direct 1.35 where?

  12. I don’t bet on MF, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say Robin Bengtsson wins this heat. Ace’s post-MF failure may just be saying that Busy Doing Nothing was just a one-off.
    Samir & Viktor sounded like shit in that snippet and I wonder how many votes can Albin & Matthias snatch off them.
    Mimi Werner probably popped a champagne the moment Anna Book was disqualified.

    1. Robin Bengtsson
    2. Samir & Viktor
    3. Ace Wilder
    4. Mimi Werner
    5. Albin & Matthias
    6. Pernilla Andersson

  13. Ace snippet is a little underwhelming to me. But it will probably look fantastic on the night judging by pictures and reports, the chorus sounds awfully repititive though.
    I think Samir and victor can take second place in the heat, chorus sounds extremely catchy and a bit like a football chant that everyone can sing along with.
    Robins song is also fine and has a chance to go direct,staging looks decent enough and with a good running order he looks Andra chansen at worst.

  14. Aces song sounds way below whats needed,the chorus simply highlights the weakness.However from the photos kicking around its obvious the staging looks really strong and that should see her ok.Pernilla has a high quality song that will appeal to a good many older viewers and if she does come last it probably shows if you dont aim at the younger demographic your out with the new app voting.SVT might have to revisit that as the final needs to appeal to a broad spread not just under 30s.
    On quality Albin and Mattias look like they should be last to me.
    Anna Brook is lucky she has been kicked out,the song sounded terrible.No wonder Moldova didnt want it.

    • I didn’t mind really Ace’s snippet. I can still remember the refrain from yesterday, which is a good thing. That’s an interesting point you’re onto with Pernilla. Essentially with Anna gone, Pernilla is the conventional choice for an older viewer. To nab the 4th spot she only has to beat a Swedish rap song and a strange Shania Twain meets Schlager effort from Mimi. It’s not inconceivable you know!

  15. Unibet won’t void Anna Book bets when I asked them by e-mail.

    “Hei Oskar,

    Kiitos yhteydenotostasi Unibet asiakaspalveluun!

    Vetoa ei valitettavasti mitätöidä, vaikka Anna Book hylättiinkin kilpailusta.

    5. Tuloksen ratkaisu

    11) Kun “Voittajavetoja” tai “Sijavetoja” lyödään, panoksia ei makseta takaisin osallistujista/tuloksista, jotka eivät osallistu tai vetäytyvät tapahtumasta (sekä ennen että sen aikana), ellei toisin mainita. Unibet pidättää oikeuden oman harkintansa mukaan soveltaa Tattersallin sääntöä 4, kuten on selitetty, mihin tahansa kilpailuun, ja tämä mainitaan vastaavuussuhteessa vetotarjoukseen ja/tai asiaankuuluvaan urheilulajikohtaiseen sääntöön.”

    I’m too lazy to translate this to English but you can always use Google Translate. But the main point is that they refused to void any bets concerning Anna Book.

    • The translation is as follows:

      “Hello Oskar,
      Thank you for contacting Unibet customer service!
      unfortunately, does not void the bet, although Anna Book being rejected in the competition.
      5. Conversion Solution
      11) When the “Winner Bets” or “Place” bets, no stakes will be refunded on participants / outcomes that are not participating or withdrawing from an event (both prior and during), unless otherwise stated. Unibet reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to apply Tattersall’s Rule 4, as explained, in any competition, and this is mentioned in correlation to the bet offer and / or the relevant Sport-specific rule. ”

      They didn’t publish any rules for the event, so they have complied with their terms. Not every bookie is the same. I’m still waiting to find out from the bookmaker I used. Chalk it down to experience – this is freak occurrence.

  16. Audience poll:

    1.Ace Wilder – ”Don’t Worry”: 39% (364 röster)
    2.Samir & Viktor – ”Bada nakna”: 29% (270 röster)
    3.Robin Bengtsson – ”Constellation Prize”: 21% (199 röster)
    4.Albin & Mattias – ”Rik”: 5% (44 röster)
    5.Mimi Werner – ”Ain’t No Good”: 3% (33 röster)
    6.Pernilla Andersson – ”Mitt Guld”: 3% (30 röster)

  17. Having just listened to the full versions of this semi .There is one song that stands out for me and that is Robin Bengtsson with Consolation Prize. I think it’s a possible contender if it makes the final. It’s my only green for the outright in this semi. Disappointed with Samir and victor’s song as I liked last year’s entry. In big danger of not going direct. Don’t think much of ace either but should go direct. They are the contenders for going direct for me.

    • Like Robin’s song too, but other than the harmonica rift, I struggle to find any other memorable parts that would do well at ESC.

      I think there are better song to come.

      As for my predictions, I have always wanted to relegate S&V to 3rd, but their popularity has prevented me. They have come a long way since Groupie.

  18. Quick Prediction for tonight:
    – Ace
    – Samir and Viktor
    – Robin
    – Mimi

    It looks rather predictable on paper but I genuinely feel that there’s three songs competing for two spots with any one of them capable of winning the heat. I’ve heard two minutes of Don’t Worry on SVT’s site. Although catchy, I’m not blown away by it. The performance should give a clearer perspective of what the song can achieve after tonight. It’ll be intriguing just to see who the gets the last A.C spot. Any of the six can make it out, really.

  19. perfect result all ways had faith in the swedes doing the right thing.

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