The Melodifestivalen 2016 season is here and the pre-lives market leader, Ace Wilder, will hope to build on her favourite status in Göteborg.
Heat 1 – Göteborg – February 6th
1. Samir & Viktor – Bada Nakna
Since last year’s Groupie, Samir & Viktor have grown from strength to strength with another summer hit, Saxofuckingfon. With Kempe on board, we should expect a stronger hook. The title of the song is quite suggestive, so expect a stage show packed with scantily-clad guys and girls.
Groupie qualified via andra chanson last year, so it’s not worth taking the skinny ‘direkt’ prices if, as expected, Ace has the better upbeat party song. Early press reports suggest a much stronger package, so they should have a pass straight to the final. Having said that, with strong songs in slots 6 and 7, it makes Samir & Viktor’s job much harder.
2. Pernilla Andersson – Mitt Guld
Pernilla first hit Melfest in 2011 with the song, Desperados, which went out of the contest at andra chansen. Early reports on this year’s song suggests a non-standard chorus. Maybe one to pencil in for last place.
BACK PERNILLA LAST PLACE – 3.75 @ UNIBET
3. Mimi Werner – Ain’t No Good
Ain’t No Good is rumoured to be a Country song. Cut out those sighs though, as Sweden can be quite receptive to the genre, with Hasse Andersson the most recent popular example. Mimi’s lower profile will probably count against her in a heat packed with other popular female stars, but she could nab an andra chansen place.
4. Albin & Mattias Andreasson – Rik
Albin is in need of a hit, and with former EMD singer, Mattias Andreasson, he’s hoping to make an impression in the final. EMD qualified ‘direkt’ in 2009, but Mattias Andreasson finished a lowly 5th in his heat in 2012. It appears former popularity will help neither artist. Something tells me they might be overshadowed and finishing 5th.
5. Anna Book – Himmel för två
30-years since her first participation in 1986, Anna Book returns to Melfest for the fourth time. ABC finished 5th back in the 80s, but her more popular hit, Samba Sambero, only finished 9th. It seems Anna will be returning with her stock schlager disco offering. If it’s fun, it could sneak past Samir & Viktor, especially if there’s a repeat of last year’s app-voting fiasco.
ANNA BOOK DISQUALIFIED.
6. Robin Bengtsson – Consolation Prize
Robin was the third-placed runner-up to Kevin Borg in Idol 2008. More recently he’s been trading under the name B Robin and released the EP, Under My Skin. The writing isn’t exactly legendary, but for Melfest, he’s teamed up with an experienced writing team and has promised a catchy chorus. A quote from SVT reports that “it’s not a typical Melodifestivalen song”. The press screening was encouraging, with many bloggers making it their favourite track. The problem is Robin has to overtake one of Samir & Viktor and Ace Wilder to make the final. I recommend holding fire until the snippets and staging are released.
If you want to take a position on Robin making the final, there is a double-qualifier market at UNIBET. The Ace/Robin double is 7.5.
7. Ace Wilder – Don’t Worry
Ace reunites with Joy & Linnea Deb, and are joined by Anton Malmberg Hård af Segerstad, who also co-wrote last year’s Melfest and Eurovision winner, Heroes. Early rumours suggest a highly competent song that should be guaranteed a high finish.
Ace went away quietly following her narrow loss to Sanna Nielsen in 2014 and has tried to forge a pop career. Several songs later, she’s been given a second bite of the cherry and should not be underestimated. Early conversations with connected Swedes suggested Ace is a contender, but this song lacks a strong enough hook. This was confirmed in the press screening. There’s a huge stage show, so again, I recommend holding fire. If you do want to back Ace to win though, LADBROKES have the best price at 5.5.
BACK ACE DIREKT – 1.35 @ UNIBET
- Ace Wilder
- Samir & Viktor
- Robin Bengtsson
- Anna Book
Thursday Snippet Update:
The songs are worse than I expected and even Samir & Viktor have failed to meet the low threshold I had in mind. The duo’s following is huge, but given the strength at the backend of the running order, Samir & Viktor look the most likely shock non-direkt from the two big names. If you’re aged 14+ what is there to invest in here?
Pernilla has done little to convince me she can escape last place and 2.5 at Unibet still looks value. Had she not been performing from slot 2, I might have felt different. Mimi Werner may also be value at 4.25, as her country vibe Ain’t No Good, but with Anna being disqualified, TV viewers may get behind the song.
Albin & Mattias looked set for 5th place before Anna got disqualified, so they should find themselves battling for the final andra chansen place with Mimi Werner.
Robin is the best of the rest, but appears to be lacking a stage show. The harmonica provides a great memorable hook, and there’s a sense he’s the most capable act to boot Samir & Viktor into andra chansen.
Ace has a song that should win this heat, but maybe not win Melfest. Until we hear the full song, it’s difficult to gauge opinion.
Prediction: 1. Ace 2. Samir & Viktor 3. Robin Bengtsson 4. Mimi Werner
Share your predictions and thoughts in the comments section…