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Sweden 2015: Måns Zelmerlöw – Heroes

Måns Zelmerlöw has won Eurovision 2015 with the song Heroes, written by: Anton Malmberg Hård af Segerstad, Joy & Linnea Deb.

With a points total of 365, Måns beat second placed Russia by 62-points.

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About Gavster

ESCtips Owner   I’m a qualified designer and dedicate a lot of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.


  1. thanks gav for your insights and for this site.

    press conference starting any minute now.

  2. It seems that we have a scandal! Italy won the televote by a storm, Sweden came 3rd!

  3. On average points he’s a bigger eurovision winner than Loreen, On average he scored 9.3 points per country compared to Loreens 9.0 points, Fun fact.

  4. Stephen Colville

    Juries have disgraced the contest, and that’s coming from someone who voted for Sweden.

    • Black 'n' Blue15

      +1 Stephen, Personally I’m not as such agitated by the fact that Italy were robbed, more so that a country with an 80 point surplus in the Televote did not win. I’d feel the same if Sweden were in Italy’s position TBH. Also, is there any official confirmation of the provis, I’ve seen on Twitter, that Sweden only topped the Televote in three countries? Absolute madness if that is the case.

  5. Gav, thank you for the great coverage of Eurovision. Can I ask you since when you are watching Eurovision and since when did you start betting on Eurovision?

  6. Not sure if these figures are right,but if they are there is going to be massive debate.


    1st – Italy – 356
    2nd – Russia – 286
    3rd – Sweden – 272
    4th – Belgium – 190
    5th – Estonia – 144
    6th – Australia – 124
    7th – Israel – 102
    8th – Albania – 93
    9th – Latvia – 88
    10th – Serbia – 86


    Sweden 353
    Latvia 249
    Russia 234
    Australia 224
    Belgium 186
    Italy 171 ———————
    Israel 77
    Cyprus 63
    Georgia 62

  7. You were robbed Gav! Russia supporters too

  8. Well in a way you were right, Gav. No one could have known that the juries will rank Italy so low. It’s a depressing thing that “music professionals” say Heroes was the best song/performance of the night.

    Anyhow, I’m quite satisfied with how I did this year. It’s mostly thanks to Esctips. So thanks Gav for all the good info and amazing advice.

    And thank you everyone else here for making the best week of the year even better. I’ve had a lot of fun.

    Until next year, cheers from Serbia!


  9. Well I stuck ardently with my belief that a combination of diplomacy from the EBU and determination from Team Australia and a little bit of good-humoured curiosity and irreverence from the voting public and juries would have resulted in the win for Guy Sebastian. But yes, it looks like their performance must have been heavily toned down since the first rehearsal. I managed to trade my way to a small but sweet profit on the Swedish win.

    I am surprised that Italy romped the televote and not the juries, and this will absolutely contribute to any future thinking, but it was Sweden’s night ultimately. The scoreboard was incredibly polarised and I think we need a return to the old 50/50 system. Germany and Austria did not deserve nul points.

    Not sure yet if I will be betting again next year as I’ve come away from two years of doing little better than breaking even wondering if all the months of analysis and stress is worth it for me. It also depends on my financial situation as I’m graduating from University this summer and will be properly fending for myself.

    Thanks to everyone for a great 2015 and have a lovely summer!

  10. My best year to date financially, but feels like the worst now. I assumed Sweden won the televote which I could live with and understand. But to win the jury vote by such a distance is an absolute disgrace in my opinion. The best song over the 2 nights (Italy) didn’t win which is a pity, and I wasn’t even an Italy backer.

  11. Thanks for great coverage Gave, and congrats to everyone who did well in the betting! Special credits go to those (and there were a lot of you) who saw the Latvian and Belgian top 10s early and got great odds. Me, I got on late and had to settle for what was available then.

    Regarding the jury/tele split, I must say I’m very surprised – well done to anyone predicting the Italian popularity, unfortunate that their jury loss from San Reno was repeated.

    I can’t quite understand the indignation though. Surely it comes as a surprise to no-one that juries can affect the outcome – otherwise they would be pretty meaningless. If we don’t want that to happen, our only option is to ditch juries altogether, but then eg UK would have given 12p to Lithuania and 10p to Poland. Is that really preferable?

    Regarding the jury ranking, I can’t fault them there either. As I understand it, vocal ability has been removed from the criteria (can definitely be discussed of course), and instead we have “hit potential”. Someone’s crushing the charts now, and it’s not Il Volo (currently 4th)…

    Thanks again, and see you guys next year (or for x factor, for those of you into that)!

  12. Yep, great coverage as ever. Hope all had a good year.

    Once again esctracker proves a pretty reliable indicator, and likewise with the increasing number of sources of info the betting markets are increasingly accurate. Almost makes me hope for a rule change next year to shake things up a little 😉

  13. I would like to thank you for all your hard work Gav, Eurovision would not be the same without Esctips being there. I also wanna thank all my great seasonal friends for this amazing journey and I hope you all made a filthy profit.

    This was the best year ever for me profit wise, though I as a music fan I’m really disappointed with the winner. Though I was on the Polina train all along, I would have thought Il Volo were more of a worthy winner than Heroes and I really feel for Italy backers. Looking in the future, it will be interesting to see how Heroes will be judged through the eyes of history, I personally doubt it will grow old well.

  14. Just a quick thank you for the kind words. Website wouldn’t be the same without the massive contributions from the dedicated readership.

    I’ll have a full analysis in the week, but I would like to say well done to Sweden backers. In the end Italy winning would have only amounted to a few more grand, so I’m not disappointed, but feel vindicated in my assertion that Europe would fall for Il Volo. Great calls on Latvia and Belgium too, plus non-qualification on the likes of Iceland and Ireland, to name a few.

    It couldn’t really have gone any better. Hotel is already booked for next year, so stay tuned as we prepare for Stockholm 2016 (Friends/Globen).

  15. Gav thank you for everything you done. You are super professional and a very nice guy! Your info are very much appreciated.
    See you next year!!!
    Have a nice time

  16. Brilliant year – my best yet- and even better coverage. The work of Gav and ESCtips is invaluable as is the knowledge and expertise of many of the contributors here. See you back here in seven months!

  17. Good evening, I’ve been following this website and I have to say congratulations on the very accurate pre-final thoughts! Spot on with Belgium. And Italy in some way.
    I was looking through the result of Il Volo last night, in particular in the televoting, and since I like to over-analyze things… I came up with some conclusions I was stunned with.

    – first of all, 366 points is the 2nd highest amount in history of the contest, behind Rybak’s 378. Only 12 points less, and 2 more countries were voting in 2009 (42).
    – they got around ~78.2% of the possible televoting points (366 out of 39*12=468). This is more than Rybak had back in 2009 (~76%) and only lower than Katrina & The Waves in 1997 (~78.8%) since the introduction of the televote.
    – The overall result of 292 makes “Grande Amore” the highest scoring 3rd placer in history, and the 5th biggest scoring song ever together with “Hard Rock Hallelujah” (which also got 292 points). Also, it’s more points than any of the previous winners bar Loreen, Rybak, Måns and Lordi.
    – Conchita Wurst scored 311 points in the televoting last year. Even considering less 3 countries voted in 2014 than in 2015, if those same 3 missing countries had all given Conchita their 12 (12*3=36, 311+36=347), it still wouldn’t have beaten Il Volo’s televoting 366 points. I guess you could say Il Volo were more popular than Conchita.
    – Highest scoring Non-English song in ESC history. Quite an achievement in a year like 2015.
    – Best ever result point-wise for an automatic finalist since the introduction of semi-finals. Best ever result in the televote for a Big 5 entry (they outscored Lena).
    – Needless to say, best ever result point-wise for Italy.

    Still regarding the televote:
    – 12 points from 14 different countries, 10 from 8 and 8 from 6. This means Il Volo were top 3 in 70% of the countries (28 out of 40). In comparison, Sweden only won the televote in 3 countries, 2 of them were Nordics. Even Iceland voted Italy over Sweden.
    – Il Volo’s worst televote ranking was a 6th place in Lithuania and Ireland. They made the top 5 in every other country.
    – They won the televote of 5 of the most populated European countries: Germany, Poland, France, Spain and Russia.
    – They did all of this despite performing last (considered by many as an unfortunate running order, given the ballad-heavy 2nd half + longest ever final) and not having performed in a semifinal (surely performing before the final is an advantadge since it can generate more momentum). The fact that the other automatic finalists did poorly (with the exception of Australia, but that, as someone once said, was supposed to be this year’s “beard”) just proves that you need huge impact to do well in the televote in the final, let alone landsliding it.

    The truth is: Last night, Il Volo performed once, at the end of the (very long) show and they won the public vote. Very impressive.

    Not taking any merit from Måns and Sweden of course. Even if they were only 3rd in the televote, they still got points from every country as well. Would be wrong to call it an undeserved victory.

    You might have not been right about the winner of Eurovision this year, Gav, but you certainly knew Il Volo’s potential to take Europe by storm. Great job!

    • Thanks for doing the work on the stats Peter.Im pretty sore this year with the juries.My book was structured in the exact order of the televote top 5 and although i scraped a profit it was the lowest for many years, (ironic i angled it on the likely jury result,yet it became the televote result).I am still amazed at the jury ranking of other songs like Estonia as well.
      The EBU had the chance at a Big 5 winner,in a language not English,from a country whos’s classy Sanremo format probably wont throw up an ESC challenger for a long time,that the European public wanted,yet the juries destroyed.
      This can only mean one of two things.RAI instructed the EBU they didnt want to win and host,or the jury system isnt working as it should.Some jury members were marking Italy 24th etc.That needs explaining,as it would if Sweden was in the same position.
      On a brighter note, im really pleased that a Sanremo winner slaughtered the televote in an ESC.

    • Pimp slot in the finals has been considered by many as a relatively poor slot (I’ve considered it myself, too), but I really think it’s time to bury that theory now. It was based on hugely overrated entries like UK 2014 and Ireland 2013 achieving poor results, and little else. With 25-27th positions this year all smashing the televote, there simply exists little indication that slot quality should go from best around 20-23th to poor 24-27th. In addition to that, closing the show is a huge boost for memorability.

      • Looking at the esctracker now, number of his no.1 positions is insanely high. In my eyes this proves that Mans had the most chart hit potential of all the acts, he was hampered by the running order in the final and had to perform in a much stronger half – luck is a part of the game of course but it seems that the juries recognized that hit potential.

        • Winning Eurovision gives a huge boost at the charts. Had, for instance, Italy won, Il Volo would be topping the charts now.

          • Getting a boost doesn’t mean that every act would achieve the outcome Måns does now – Conchita for one had 5 first-place positions (Common Linnets had 9) on iTunes the day after the finals, while Måns had 20+.

            It seems to me that at least when it comes to the hit potential, the juries had their ranking about right.

          • I can side with both of you here, but what I will say is, vocal capacity was included in the market criteria, which has been misquoted in the comments section earlier.

          • Gav, thank you for your wonderful work. Its truly been a pleasure to visit your site.
            I have one question, after Sweden’s win is it fair to assume that hit potential trumps vocal capacity song originality with juries because like you I never doubted IIVolo’s ability to top the televote.

          • This quote is how DB once explained the Sanremo result:

            “Most websites were claiming the opposite before the results,that it would be the jury who would win it for them.That was never going to happen.Malika Ayane was always going to win the Italian jury and rightly so.However Il Volo matched Chiara for 5th in the jury rankings following Nek,Annalisa and Zilli.The jury wont of liked the weakness of the lyrics for Il Volo,but scored them up for delivery and the power of the arrangement.That matters for ESC because ESC juries arent marking on the same as SR juries.They wont spot the weak lyrics.There also will be no Malika in Vienna.”

            In hindsight the most simple explanation would be that esc jury score was just in line with the local one.

          • Thank you Boki, thats a perfectly reasonable explanation.

            An outcome that I hadn’t anticipated, you live and learn.

          • Very true Boki,it is almost a carbon copy of the SR jury positions.I had expected the ESC juries though to score higher for two reasons.First SR always lean towards classy, very Italian songs.Second the ones above Il Volo were very strong jury songs and suited to the make up of the SR juries.However they didnt.
            It is interesting though to question how some jury members could place Italy last.That simply cant be explained.There is also the worry that the voting system is forcing the contest down a very narrow alley.The Scandi/Baltic block is very strong,but the return or Turkey,Ukraine and maybe Bosnia might turn things east again.Next year could be a cracker.

  18. I took the needed day off from the madness and was surprised this evening seeing the split results, you never know what’s going to happen with the juries.
    One thing that people suddenly seem to forget is that ‘robbed public favorite’ Italy performed from a pimp slot which clearly still has power (if the act is a high quality televote package as Italy was). I wonder what the televote result would be if Italy got 1st half and Sweden 2nd.

    Thanks again Gav for the hard work!

  19. Some thoughts about this year Eurovision.

    First of all music quality was very high comparing to 2014 or 2013. I truly enjoyed most of the songs this year and I will not forget songs from Belgium, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Israel, Australia, Italy for a long time.

    I think for the third time in a row market proved to be very accurate. I think this has something to do with the new voting system introduced in 2013. I gotta say this system if so far the best because it helps good songs to get good results. It really decreases diaspora voting. Greece didn’t give 12 points to Cyprus and Cyprus didn’t give 12 points to Greece. The system must be working and I think we’ll see similar results in 2016 where good songs will be in top 10 despite the country they are from.

    Italy proved that pimp slot in the final is as good as in the semi if the song is good.

    I feel so bad for Switzerland. Last place in a semi with only 4 points. I can’t remember any other country to score so few points. Totally undeserved result. It must have something to do with the draw. Performing after Sweden must have hurt a lot.

    I just hated fake applause and cheers. Who was so dumb to think of this idea?

  20. A bit ironic, isn’t it? Last year, Italy won JESC thanks to the juries, but they didn’t want to host it. This time it’s the juries that cost them the victory. How cruel fate can be.

  21. Oh how wish some country sent reggae song next year. That would be something new in Eurovision.

  22. Huge thanks to Gav for excellent coverage! I had a great time chatting with all of you guys and analyzing everything possible. Special thanks to SirMills, you really are a great guy!

    It was a solid year betting-wise. Belgium was a goldmine for me this year, Latvia’s success was also very nice. On Saturday I fortunately caved in and bought a big chunk of Sweden. Cyprus top10 was the biggest misstep. It’s really curious just how poorly Cyprus and another kind of old fashioned ballad, Austria, did in televote. Both had sufficient quality all around. Now we just need to think about this and billion other details about the results and we’ll be even better next year. Living in Finland, it would be so easy to travel to Sweden. Maybe I’ll meet some of you there! Anyway, see you all next year!

  23. Black 'n' Blue15

    Just some extra thoughts ahead of next year.

    – I’m the slightest bit apprehensive in regards to staging plans for next year. Not to disrespect the team behind “Heroes”, but I fear the influx of Projection mapping could come into fruition for many countries next year looking to bolster themselves up the leader-board. Also, the use of such graphics is something the Juries comprised of “Musical Experts” shouldn’t fall for, but thinking about it, many a Juror are just like you and I, listening to whatever catches them on the radio, dipping in and out of genres, before eventually, by Eurovision season, being sucked back towards a whirlpool of unadventurous numbers that won’t upset majority.
    -The overly-reliant use of graphics at this year’s contest I feel masqueraded what was quite an unexciting posse of songs, which resulted in the more stripped back standouts of Belgium and Latvia not cracking the top three and the prevention of the uncompromising flag bearers of “Ol’ Skool” punk, Finland, Not qualifying. A part of me, wants an Oslo 2010 style setting whereby only lights were used to generate mood, limit visual distraction and highlight the permanence of songs that should stand up and speak for themselves.
    – I would like to think the Jury ranking system is in need of a good and thorough shake up ahead of the 16′ contest. The fiasco this year with Tele-Vote winners Italy not taking it outright, reminds me of the estranged aggregate Qualifying format Formula 1 used for the first half of the 05′ campaign. Qualifying times were set on Saturday, and then once again on Sunday morning with the Driver setting the lowest aggregate time taking Pole Position. What duly happened at a few races was the instance of a driver taking Pole despite not being quickest at the end of the final Qualifying session on Sunday Morning. Similarly, with Sweden, they won overall despite coming 3rd on the vote that took place on Saturday night.
    -As excellently put by commentator Hans over at ESC Insight, “If the most popular performance/Competitor loses due to some archaic rules that no ordinary person can understand, than that Sport/Contest will be in deep trouble”. I’m not suggesting the Juries should be scraped, but their influence on the result, the criteria they use, should be more in line with what the Public wants, and should reward Songs/Performers within a varied number of genres that challenge audiences with different song structures, sounds and deliveries instead of rewarding “Hit Potential”, the musical equivalent of salad dressing that I should be listening to on the radio or downloading on itunes. Dear Juries, let radio do it’s thing, and start endorsing Eurovision again as an opportunity to showcase musical culture and diversity. If a song from ESC just so happens to become a radio hit, let it run it’s course, we shouldn’t have to be told so by a Jury if it’s that good.

    • Clearly the juries marked Il Volo down to a highly deserving 6th place because Grande Amore, as a song, was simply banal. The televoters lapped it up because, and this is hindsight speaking here, it was in many ways the perfect Italian Eurovision entry. It was misguided to think of the San Remo juries as higher brow than Eurovision juries, we knew Grande Amore was not high class Italian music, but nor was it any better than a simple stereotype. It was simply not as good as its supporters said it was. The juries’ primary purpose is to reward entries that are a bit more deserving of the win, not simply neuter the East.

      Yes, Heroes is musically unoriginal as well but the staging makes up for it. If juries aren’t supposed to fall for that sort of thing, then Russia would have won obviously. Belgium and Latvia did well to place where they did but neither of them ever had a winner’s aura. I really wish Australia had been a bit more ambitious with their staging.

      I think my scepticism towards Heroes at first is because I expect that empty flashiness from Melodifestivalen. It’s hard for me to tell just how good something really is in that environment, and it’s always difficult to see how it measures up at Eurovision against everyone else. My Twitter and family were talking about how clever and creative the staging for Heroes was, so it definitely had that first time effect, and that’s something I was wrong about.

      • That is right Ben i think in regards Il Volo.It was not high class Italian music.The juries in SR saw it as a parody of Italy.That is the reason i thought Malika Ayane might take them down in SR by winning the jury.However the televote potential was huge,and also there was a big chance the ESC juries would miss the negatives and really go for them.
        I do think “hit potential” needs removing from the jury scores though.That is sending ESC down a narrow alley.The televoters should decide that,not juries.

        • all things taken into consideration Russia should probably have won in the same way Azer took the title in 2011. It was as perfectly constructed a mid-tempo song as has ever appeared in Eurovision and could only have been marked down on originality (same as Sweden). It was in the end (as Gav cleverly predicted) a political result.

          I of course offer this comment in with the caveat that I would have made a monster profit if Russia had won, rather than the modest profit I did make… so I might be biased 😉

  24. As previously discussed, “hit potential” was not one of criteria. Some people may have missed it, but I have corrected this twice already.

    The marking criteria for Vienna was as follows:

    vocal capacity
    the performance on stage
    the composition and originality of the song
    the overall impression by the act

  25. From our friend at Aftonbladet:

    • And tonight Jarmo Siim has announced his resignation. His Eurovision role will terminate next week.

      • I’m curious what was the reason of Jarmo’s deeds btw? I doubt it was his personal animosity towards Heroes… I heard a theory that Bjorkman and Jon Ola Sand are fighting over influence in the EBU but have no idea if it’s true or somehow related to this Jarmo incident.

        • I don’t think Jarmo’s intentions were deliberately malevolent. I think he made stupid mistake of voicing opinions to the wrong person. Maybe he got complacent. Even so, in his former role, his focus should have been on his job, not encouraging a Greek hack to bash the Swedish entry. He shouldn’t have lied either!

          Given the stream of evidence, and the misguided way in which the EBU defended Jarmo, I think Bjorkman wanted to get PwC involved at the next Reference Group meeting. That would have potentially backfired on Sieste, who employs Jarmo at Wow! Works, in addition to EBU chief, Jon Ola Sand.

          If there’s a lesson to be learnt, it’s that the public face of Eurovision shouldn’t be run by fanboys.

          I think it’s safe to say that if Jon Ola Sand’s position came available, Bjorkman would be in the running. However, given Sand is Norwegian, there might be pressure to appoint a non-Nordic person.

  26. When you take a look into the jury scores, you see that two lithuanian jury members put Russia on the last place. That looks very suspicious to me. No way someone who only gives points regarding to the music puts Polina on the last place.

    I hope they will rework the jury vote for next year. let’s say like 25% jury 75% televote, because you will never find 200+ non biased jury members

    • But the public are more biased than the juries. 50/50 is fair. Prior to contest, Russia’s politics was always going to influence a number of jurors. To be honest, I think Italy have more to complain about.

    • The Lithuanian jurors were just countering their huge Russian population who were always going to be blindly patriotic.

  27. I take the opposite view of BnB above about the visuals. I think they are as important as the audio. It’s in the name of the competition, it’s in the fact that when it started TV was new (take-up of TV was new, not the invention). It’s not a radio show.

    It’s a shame that juries promoted a block country over a big 5 but with hindsight I realise that that couldn’t be avoided and that the juries did their job excellently. Juries have to try to be above the running order. Their note taking and analysis help this.

    The public however are mainly emotional. This was an ESC with loads of good stuff. Confusing. So at the end Grande Amore made it easy for them.

    Personally Heroes is not something I’ll listen to again but it introduced something really new and did it slickly and that has to be rewarded. And it raises the bar for future entries. Long gone are the days when bright clothing was considered enough.

    • Black 'n' Blue15

      In hindsight Henry, the Oslo contest was about as languid and forgettable as this year’s Dutch entry. It is TV as you say, and Visuals do help the show, keep it fresh for 3-4 hours. The influence they have though, is a little unprecedented, and especially annoying for us betting, gambling on some sort of musical horse-race without knowing how strong a horse/jockey combination will be until the stands are packed.

      I think this situation, with “Heroes” having won is quite alien to us. I can’t recall another winner before that had projected imagery as such an integral part of the performance. Sweden’s win has ripped up pages from the ESC predictors guidebook in respect to the above, and will ultimately help us adjudicate future entries with better accuracy (Fingers Crossed!).

      Like you’ve said, it should raise the bar for forthcoming contests, not only from a technological standpoint but also from a style/genre pool of thought. Sending something representative of the industry in Pop culture appears to be a new-founded enamour for Juries, and something Tele-voters are often happy to abet. It (Projection Mapping/Heavily integrated visuals) could become a trend not too dissimilar to that of Choreography in winning entries from 2002-05′.

      I agree with you also on the point of the juries being left with no choice other than to vouch for Sweden. Next year we’ll get a competent well produced show in Stockholm instead of one held in a country most people hate or one that couldn’t have cared less about ESC for fourteen years and the one that just turned down the Junior Contest. Much more to their decisions than the ordinary joe-soap might perceive ehh… 😉

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