Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Cohesiveness of Package
Historical Support Strength
My educated guess is that Montenegro will likely muster around 35-45 points and subsequently miss out on qualification.
Montenegro have become this year’s final country to release their Eurovision song. Knez was unveiled back in October, and in February, it was announced that Zeljko Joksimovic would write his song.
The fruits of that partnership have now been published in the form of Adio, which will compete in the first half of semi-final 2.
Zeljko has delivered a typical Balkan ballad in a similar format to his own Nije Ljubav Stvar and Croatia’s 2009 entry, Lijepa Tena. The only problem is that he won’t be performing it in Vienna; Knez will be.
A further problem is that this year, Montenegro will need to rely on less allies; they lose Albania’s 12, Armenia’s 8 and France’s 6, while also lacking the level of Balkan allies required to push them remotely close to the qualification threshold.
Ballads are out in force for the second semi-final and Montenegro’s Adio lacks the hooks and relateability for the rest of Europe to support. My educated guess is that Montenegro will likely muster around 35-45 points and subsequently miss out on qualification.
Will Montenegro qualify for the second year in succession?