Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Historical Support Strength
It’s a solid top-10, maybe top-5, but certainly not a winner unless the political situation reverses.
Having teased us earlier in the week, the Russians have finally published Polina Gagarina’s song, A Million Voices.
Much hilarity was shared among Eurovision fans when Polina’s song was released. Last year, the Tolmachevy Sisters sang about “Telling all the world to show some love”, while coincidentally cheerleading the nation’s incursion into the Crimea:
Living on the edge
closer to the crime
cross the line a step at a time
This year, Russia is again lecturing the world about peace:
Praying for peace and healing
I hope we can start again
We believe in a dream
I don’t usually find myself getting involved in lyrics, but when I listen to A Million Voices and watch the kitsch, politically correct video about love and acceptance, I can’t help feeling slightly angry. How will the rest of Europe react to Polina’s song? The Tolmachevy Sisters were roundly booed during last year’s final (not audible on the live feed) and the audience wasn’t just made up of single blokes, there were families there too. The Danes are quite restrained people, they don’t believe in using a car horn. Yet, during last year’s final, Denmark took a deep collective breath and booed the Tolmachevy Sisters.
Even the voting mirrored the widespread feeling of disgust, with Russia scoring just a handful of points from the West. That wasn’t limited to the televote either. The following juries ranked Russia outside of the top-10: Albania (25), Austria (15), Belgium (12), Estonia (24), Finland (22), France (25), Germany (19), Hungary (16), Iceland (13), Ireland (20), Israel (14), Italy (20), Latvia (21), Montenegro (23), Norway (24), Poland (20), Portugal (20), Romania (24), San Marino (24), Slovenia (18), Spain (23), Sweden (14), Switzerland (19) and Netherlands (17).
A number of national juries were quite deliberate in ranking Russia low, whereas the UK, Denmark and Sweden were more impartial. A Million Voices is a much stronger song than Shine, but Russia backers should acknowledge the political isolation Russia has suffered since its incursion into Ukraine. It’s not as if the situation has improved since last year either. Stockholm was searching for a Russian sub just a few months back. The Baltics, UK and Scandinavia are continually reacting to Russian military aircraft flying close to their airspace and commercial airliners with their transponders deliberately switched off. We’ve also had the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Donetsk Oblast. Tensions have escalated since last year and this will translate into an erratic distribution of points depending how objectively a national jury is willing to act.
I love the song, and without the political tensions listed above, I could see Russia doing extremely well. A Million Voices has everything Dina Garipova’s What If lacked. It’s a solid top-10, maybe top-5, but certainly not a winner unless the political situation reverses.
Can Russia inspire a million votes?
- Qualification History
- Final Performance
Highest semi-final score (since 2004): 217 (2006: Dima Bilan – Never Let You Go)
Lowest semi-final score (since 2004): 63 (2014: Tolmachevy Sisters – Shine)
Average semi-final finishing position (since 2008): 5th
Average semi-final score (since 2008): 107 points
Highest score (since 2004): 177 (2012: Buranovskiye Babushki – Party for Everybody)
Lowest score (since 2004): 57 (2005: Natalia Podolskaya – Nobody Hurt No One)
Average final position: 8th
Average final score: 148 points
Belarus – 10.8
Armenia – 10.5
Ukraine – 8.6
Moldova – 8.6
Estonia – 8.3
Latvia – 8.3
Lithuania – 7.7
Israel – 7.4
Czech Rep’ – 7.4
Azerbaijan – 6.7