ESCtips – Eurovision Analysis & Betting Eurovision Betting Analysis, Odds & National Finals
It’s the Melodifestivalen 2015 Final preview podcast where we discuss the likely winners and losers in Saturday’s final from the Friend’s Arena in Stockholm.
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Thanks guys for this excellent podcast.
How do you like this one @betsson: Magnus to finish higher than Samir and Viktor @3,55.
It’s a pretty much given Magnus will finish higher in the jury vote and let’s not forget he has already beaten them once in the tele.
It’s a value bet, I agree. Not enough to tempt me though, as the final kind of resets the field. Samir & Victor will storm the televote and we’re kinda relying on the juries to reward a song they don’t understand with Mans, Mariette, Isa, Saade and maybe JHF higher in the reckoning.
It’s a strong value bet. Let’s say andra chansen momentum brings Samir and Victor ahead of Magnus in the televote, Magnus will most likely outscore them with a greater margin in the jury tally. I can’t see the reason they should punish him that bad for singing in his own language while we can all see why S and V could be badly punished.
By your own predictions you give Magnus more total score than Samir and Victor, his realistic odds should be 1.85 and 3.55 is exactly triple more payout for the same amount put in the pot. Triple value is a great value in my book.
I heard some rumours Magnus were singing in English for the jury is that correct Gav?
Nice work lads, looking forward to the Eurovision podcasts later on.
Just a quick plug, I’m talking about sexualisation at Eurovision with Nathan from escXtra and Sam Ross on Glen Bartlett’s radio show tonight from 8pm GMT. 🙂
Sexualisation? I assume you’ll be covering the Babushki then?
Cake mix and all.
Do you know if Melodifestivalen will be broadcast on the Internet? I’ve never watched Melodifestivalen but I’d like to watch it this year because Swedish have very strong songs to choose from.
Yes it will be broadcast from the SVT website Montell.
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/
Any gossip of tonights performances in front of the juries?
I read in some liveblog @escgo that in the end of Samir and viktor’s performance that one of them fell of the screen pedestal and said “shit” quite loudly. Not sure if that impressed the juries.
Audience poll results:
1. Måns Zelmerlöw (261 votes, 42.9%)
2. Eric Saade (75 votes, 12.3%)
3. Samir & Viktor (72 votes, 11.8%)
4. Jon Henrik Fjällgren (70 votes, 11.5%)
5. Hasse Andersson (48 votes, 7.9%)
6. Mariette (34 votes, 5.6%)
7. Isa (24 votes, 3.9%)
8. Magnus Carlsson (21 votes, 3.5%)
9. Jessica Andersson (17 votes, 2.8%)
10. Linus Svenning (13 votes, 2.1%)
11. Dinah Nah (11 votes, 1.9%)
12. JTR (10 votes, 1.8%)
Also, Poplight have rather interestingly conducted their own “International jury” poll.
Måns Zelmerlöw – 116 poäng
Jon Henrik Fjällgren – 53 poäng
Mariette – 48 poäng
Eric Saade – 39 poäng
Linus Svenning –36 poäng
Magnus Carlsson –36 poäng
Jessica Andersson –25 poäng
Isa – 22 poäng
Samir & Viktor – : 20 poäng
Dinah Nah – 19 poäng
JTR – : 10 poäng
Hasse Andersson – 6 poäng
Details here: http://poplight.se/2015/03/13/sa-tycker-poplights-internationella-jury-om-finalen-av-melodifestivalen-2015/