Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Cohesiveness of Package
Amanecer de los muertos
It's a watching brief for now, but given the strength of Italy, I don't consider Spain's 60/1 odds as value.
Having internally selected Edurne in January, RTVE presented their Eurovision song, Amanecer, this morning.
Despite the hype, the market quickly discounted the annual Spanish fanboy fervour.
Ben Gray considers the current Betfair price of 60s as being too high and believes Spain could break this year’s top-10. Esceire argues that Amanecer is a big fanwank and reckons Spain will finish 14th-17th. Squall backs this up by highlighting Spain’s lack of voting power and history of “shitty” stage presentations.
Unless you are Spanish, I think there was a collective sigh when Edurne’s song was published on Monday. With Thomas G:son on board, we all anticipated a song that contained even the most basic of hooks, or a catchy element for international viewers to engage with. Instead we got the annual corazón bomb and a series of Yeaheeios during the chorus.
Amanecer is a dramatic 3-minutes, but it’s difficult to isolate a particular passage that stands out and leaves a lasting impression. If we identify the main ingredients of a top-4 Eurovision song since the reintroduction of the juries, they all tend to have a strong, discernible hook, and in most cases, were performed in English. The only recent song I can recall that has a vague, tenuous similarity to Amanecer is Željko Joksimović’s Nije Ljubav Stvar, but even that had stronger impact, in addition to greater diaspora to exploit and a significantly more famous singer.
I think the general gist from the comments posted so far is that we need to wait until Spain unveil their stage show in May, as Amanecer struggles in recorded form alone. Maybe an ethno-inspired stage show with live instrumentation and a dusk-to-dawn backdrop will propel Spain into the top-10 and beyond?
It’s a watching brief for now, but given the strength of Italy, I don’t consider Spain’s 60/1 odds as value and would be hoping for 90/1+.
Will Edurne be the dawn of something special for Spain?
- Final Performance
Highest score (since 2004): 97 (2012 – Partora Soler, Quédate conmigo)
Lowest score (since 2004): 8 (2013 – El Sueño de Morfeo, Contigo hasta el final)
Average final position: 17th
Average final score: 50 points
Albania – 4.5
Switzerland – 4.1
Portugal – 4.1
Greece – 4.1
Italy – 4.0
Cyprus – 3.6