Home / Eurovision Tips / Melodifestivalen 2015: Heat 3 Betting Preview

Melodifestivalen 2015: Heat 3 Betting Preview

Last week brought us our first glimmer of quality from this year’s Melodifestivalen lineup and heat 3 promises another big step forward with Kristin Amparo & Jon Henrik Fjällgren boasting decent songs.

Heat 3 Östersund

1. Ellen Benediktson – Insomnia

First in the running order and a full 180 in terms of style and genre. Will Ellen Benediktson’s edgier and more grownup style work with the fans that voted for last year’s nice girl? I think it’s a massive risk, but maybe this year’s image refresh is designed to reset Ellen’s relationship with Sweden and propel her into a pop career.

2. Kalle Johansson – För din skull

Kalle was this year’s automatic qualifier from Svensktoppen Nästa 2014. Last year’s winners, Eko, had a song written by Joy & Linnea Deb, so don’t get excited by G:son. I think by winning Svensktoppen Nästa, these artists get access to high-profile writers who offload passable B-sides. Kalle describes his song as fun and energetic but I’d say andra chansen is the limit. The press were excited by the return to form for G:son during today’s preview, but again, I think Kalle will struggle to muster enough support to trouble the top two places.

3. Andreas Weise – Bring Out The Fire

Andreas says he has a song to win Melodifestivalen. To me, his running order slot doesn’t. The press preview suggests a Robbie Williams/Olly Murs pastiche.

4. Andreas Johnson – Living to Die

How many times will Andreas Johnson enter Melodifestivalen? Interestingly, Andreas has a new writing team in Thomas G:son and Anton Malmberg Hård af Segerstad, so there might be a more up-to-date sound this time. In my opinion, if Christer wanted Andreas in the final, he wouldn’t be performing from slot 4. I would take andra chansen for now and lay under evens on Betfair where available.

5. Isa – Don’t Stop

This year’s new Ace Wilder? Don’t Stop has a great opportunity to stand out at this point of the heat given the songs in slot 6 & 7 are reported to be at the slower end of the tempo scale. The markets massively underrate this song and I think it has the potential to surprise.

6. Kristin Amparo – I See You

Kristin has already had a massive #1 single last year when she teamed up with John De Sohn, having previously graduated from the X-Factor franchise. She wasn’t chosen for the live shows, however. Her writers worked on Undo, Yes We Can and well as Leona’s Footprints in the Sand, which is a healthy back catalogue. Kristin has been well backed over the last few weeks following growing confidence in Sweden. We also tipped it on our preview podcast and today’s press preview added to that confidence.

7. Jon Henrik Fjällgren – Jag är fri (Manne leam frijje)

Jon is the winner of lat year’s Sweden’s Got Talent and enjoys huge public affection, even though the show’s ratings were low. I think we can expect more of the same, but with a little more pace. Jon is a 100% qualifier in my opinion, but his appeal may wane in the final when Sweden’s thoughts shift to Eurovision.

Wednesday Roundup

In this heat we’re looking for the second direkt qualifier behind Fjällgren and the two andra chansen candidates. I’d say it’s between Kristin and Isa, given she has the big Taylor Swift upbeat song from slot 5. The value at the moment is backing Kristin Amparo 2.75  at BET365.

Initial prediction: 1. Jon Henrik Fjällgren 2. Kristin Amparo 3. Isa 4. Andreas Johnson

Saturday Update:

Yesterday’s snippets did very little to change my mind from Wednesday’s press preview. I do think Jon Henrik Fjällgren is a guaranteed finalist – Sweden really loves this guy. The second qualifier is between Kristin Amparo and ISA. Last night’s rehearsal show saw a massive audience response to Amparo’s song, which makes me believe the SVT snippet has held a lot back.  I am in the lucky position of having ISA covered at 7s with a near free run, so whoever finishes second, I’m happy. I also laid Andrea Johnson at 1.95 with BWIN a few months ago, which was a poor bet for them to offer.

Going into tonight’s show, I recommend getting involved with Unibet’s last place market. The favourite at 1.45 is rightly Kalle Johansson, but there’s good value backing Ellen Benediktson (5.25) and Andreas Johnsson (5.0).

Enjoy the show!

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15 comments

  1. From what I’ve read in the reviews, Isa’s song is a bit like Shake It Off with some Katy Perry thrown in.

    As for Jon Henrik’s song, I’ve heard it being compared to Nocturne, The Circle of Life from The Lion King and Adiemus, so it’s going to be very New Age sounding and evocative judging by those comments, which means I’m going to love it.

  2. I backed Amparo direct a while ago with Betsafe at 3.5 and that will be all i have on the heat.
    However my three main bets on the outright in order were Mariette,ISA and Amparo so this heat is really important for me.I love Ellen and think she is a very talented singer.I also think she is a bit deluded.Telling the world Songbird wasnt her bag is a bit of an insult to all those Swedes who voted for her and it.She could be amazing as she has the talent, but i think this is more a way for her to build a solid fan base and position herself.Iv got a small stake on the outright from expecting her to have a Debs song.
    ISA i have on the ouright at big prices and added a little more today at 67s.I really like this girl.Genuine talent.She needs moulding a bit but her dancing and energy are fantastic.I also dont think AC would be a disaster for her.So far it looks very weak and ISA has the talent to go there and really grow.Amparo or ISA direct and if she misses direct ISA to AC id be very happy with.Id love to see Fjallgren finish 5th,but il have to wait for the final probably.

  3. Looks pretty straightforward, numbers 6 and 7 really should be through again this week. Hoping Isa doesn’t spring a surprise, although I have backed her a little. Happy to lay Ellen and all of the others, if anyone wants any 😛

    • I wouldn’t be too confident about number 6 Tim, on SVT official facebook site Amparo’s snippet is the least liked snippet out of the 7. I’m not saying those “like” numbers are the holy indicator of what will happen but it says something at least. I agree with you on 1 2 3 or 4 if one of these entries would make it direct it would be a shock.

      • I noticed the facebook likes. To be honest, they don’t bother me because the bloggers were super super positive about Kristin’s rehearsal.

  4. The audience poll:

    Jon Henrik Fjällgren – 27,5% (93 röster)
    Kristin Amparo – 25,1% (85 röster)
    Isa – 19,8% (67 röster)
    Andreas Weise – 11,8% (40 röster)
    Ellen Benediktson – 6,2% (21 röster)
    Andreas Johnson – 5,3% (18 röster)
    Kalle Johansson – 4,1% (14 röster)

    • Some people like to descripe ISA as the younger Ace Wilder I at least agree that they are both suited for the younger geographic. Ace Wilder got 8 % from the audience poll last year, so my educated guess is that the younger geographic is in minority in the friday rehersals. Things are looking good for ISA in my opinion.

      • Hi SirMills. I think Oscar Zia absorbed much of the youth vote that night (41%), which was reflected during the Saturday night show when Oscar finished top of the vote with Ace Wilder a narrow 2nd. It was a close heat and you could argue that heat 3 was more suited to a young audience with State of Drama 3rd and Outtrigger in 4th.

        • Yes that’s true, though Oscar’s song had arguably more broad appeal due to the 90’s sound of it, something Backstreet Boys had been proud of in their early days.

  5. I think last place market is very interesting to spice things up a little. My pick for the night was Andreas Weise, due to his untelegenic nature and the song is comparable to Molly’s song in 1 semi which flopped.

  6. I was looking forward to Jon Henrik’s song, must say I’m a bit disappointed. The Sami people do have a language of their own, I don’t understand why he staunchly relies on the yoik to carry a whole three minutes. Oh well, there goes my wish for a Sami double from Sweden and Finland at Eurovision this year. Fingers crossed for Solju!

    • I agree Ben I just don’t get this song though I have it green in my book. Solju for the win in Finland!! That would be amazing for me 🙂

  7. My prediction is 1. Jon Henrik, 2. Kristin Amparo, 3. Andreas Johnson, 4. Isa

  8. I’ve been backing Fjallgren in the win market again. Laddies best price of 4.33. I think Fjallgren is showing winning form here.

  9. A bit against the grain i really thought ellens song stood out from the snippets, catchy tatu meets euphoria style chereography looked slick too. Took some 12.0 and 14.0 on this as a speculative long shot.

    Fjalgrens song if u can call it that should sail through.it reminds me more of the sort of thing that would be opening ceremony at a world cup or something.

    Also layed amparo. Think its a decent ballad. Prob more suited to uk x factor then sweden, i think sweden prefer the fun bubble gum pop type so isa could take the other spot here.

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