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Melodifestivalen 2015: Heat 2 Betting Preview

So after last week’s low key start, we now move to Malmö and see the return of Linus Svenning.  SVT will be hoping for less negativity surrounding their new voting app, which Christer Björkman has since defended. Here’s to a higher quality heat…!

Heat 2 – Malmö

1. Linus Svenning – Forever Starts Today

Linus returns minus the family history and sombre ballad. Kempe and Gibson have instead given Linus a mid-tempo song they hope will wipe the slate clean and give Linus a new lease of life. Performing from slot 1 is dangerous given last week’s voting app influence.  I think this week will come down to who loves who more in this heat of nostalgia and viral youth.  Therefore, I suspect Linus might be destined for andra chansen, or an early ride home. Reaction in the press preview has been mixed.

2. Emelie Irewald – Där och då med dig

Emelie is probably more famous for being Danny Saucedo’s ex, but being sandwiched between Linus and Samir & Victor is certain sign of impending doom. Sorry, I think Emelie will be last.

3. Samir & Victor – Groupie

With the same writers on board, Groupie is rumoured to be similar to their summer hit, Success. The youth vote isn’t as split in this heat, so I can’t imagine Samir & Victor not making the final. The rehearsal wasn’t perfect and I suspect their performance on Saturday won’t be 100% perfect, yet despite that, there are thousands of kids waiting to vote for them.

4. Neverstore – If I Was God For One Day

Rock is a bit hit and miss at Medlodifestivalen, but with the likes of G:son on board, we should get a melodic, radio-friendly song. Unfortunately, the vocals sound flat and the refrain lacks the punch we hoped for. I think they’ll struggle to reach into andra chansen.

5. Marie Bergman & Sanne Salomonsen – Nonetheless

A hint of nostalgia now and Marie in particular should enjoy plenty of support, having won Melodifestivalen three times before. The song was described on our podcast as being this year’s Calm after the Storm. This duo are definitely dangerous and could make andra chansen.

6. Magnus Carlsson – Möt mig i gamla stan

This is Magnus’ eighth time at Melodifestivalen and he returns with a classic schlager sound. He has G:son on board too, so he shouldn’t be dismissed and Sweden’s affection for schlager is infinite. There might not be enough here for direkt, but could be good value for andra chansen.

7. Mariette – Don’t Stop Believing

To date, the spotlight has focussed more on the writer, Miss Li, than on Mariette. That could be an issue, because if people’s expectations aren’t met, Mariette’s charge halts in Malmö. The song has been described as beautiful and mysterious and if it’s anything like If Only I Can, then the final could be within touching distance. The press preview was mixed with some hacks raving about Loreen’s Euphoria and Madonna’s Frozen with others clearly less interested. The snippet suggests there are many more layers to this song, and with the last slot, I think Mariette should be making the final. 2.0 at UNIBET is a good shout and could be laid off on BETFAIR tomorrow or Saturday.

Roundup:

As predicted, Linus’ song has divided opinion, which suggests he might struggle to garner enough support at the start of the show, especially if voters are still cracking up their phone app. Other than Samir & Victor, I think the qualifiers will come from late in the running order. The market leaders are under evens, so for now, I recommend taking value positions before tomorrow’s snippets.

Initial prediction: 1. Samir & Victor 2. Magnus Carlsson 3. Mariette 4. Neverstore

Update:

My issue with Linus is that his song is somewhat schlager, so he crosses into Magnus’ territory. I also think the drumming choreography is distracting and isolates Linus on the stage. It also makes you think Linus should be doing more than just standing there. Nevertheless, I do believe he could sneak an andra chansen place and 2.35 at UNIBET is value.

Neverstore disappointed, as I expected a much livelier song. As did Marie & Sanne, whose Common Linnets comparison raised expectations. Even so, I can’t quite rule out an andra chansen place for Nonetheless.

Magnus is dangerous in this heat and it would be hugely disappointing to see him overhaul Mariette to take the remaining direkt till final place. As I alluded to above, Sweden’s love for schlager is enough to propel Magnus into the final, but something tells me he might just fall short.

So that leaves with with the following prediction:

1. Samir & Victor 2. Mariette 3. Magnus Carlsson 4. Linus Svenning

Share your predictions below…

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

2 comments

  1. Mariette the big mover in the markets today. Great vocals! I just hope she delivers with the final version. Elsewhere Linus impresses me, and Samir & Viktor sounds demo-delighting enough to reach the final.

  2. I took 1 pts bet on mariette to win @ 21 long time ago added another @ 15 today. This snippet is really promising.

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