So this is it, six months work will reach it’s end later tonight when the Eurovision 2014 winner is crowned. If it was up to the new arrivals in my hotel, Austria’s Conchita Wurst would be the runaway winner. We have to operate in the real world though and looking at the voting order published this morning, I think we should prepare for the ‘The’ nations taking the win: that’s (The) UK or Netherlands.
Below is my annual Eurovision Final Best Bet Guide where I have isolated the best bets for each country based on my opinion of their eventual finishing position. There are one or two value positions thrown in too.
In a Eastern-Bloc sandwich. I can’t see Belarus doing well, but nor do I see them coming last.
Poor draw. Insipid song. Forgettable staging (having watched other nations).
Bright staging, catchy song, but hampered by a strong collection of songs from their Nordic neighbours.
Fifth slot isn’t the best and I feel Carl Espen’s quality song will be overshadowed by bigger entries.
Lay top ten circa 3.0
Romania should perform well on the televote, but I fear the juries will rank this desperate song quite low (aka Germany 2013).
Aram not given the best running order slot and you’d have to conclude that he failed to win his semi-final. Maybe he didn’t even place.
Sergej should enjoy plenty of support from the vast Balkan diaspora spread across Europe. Doubt it’ll feature to highly on the jury chart, but I expect a finish 15th-20th.
Should be a fan favourite and predict 8th-14th finish.
Back to lay – current price 330+.
Should be another fan favourite and I predict a sharp price contraction once the UK punters get involved during the show.
Top Balkan @ 1.45
Top-10 finish circa 1.6
Probably came top-5 with many Western jurors. Eastern support is still debatable. Could be top-5. If you think Conchita isn’t winning Eurovision, then lay lay lay!
Lay top-3 circa evens.
Below par jury performance and somewhat overshadowed in the running order. Plus, all the Germanic votes will go to Netherlands and Austria.
Germany to finish last – 6.0 @ SportingBet
Sanitary Sanna and her sanitised Scandi-ballad. The voting order suggests she’s not winning, so keep on laying!
Lay Sweden to win circa 3.8
Lay Sweden top-3 circa 1.7 or…
Impressive and memorable staging. Jury rehearsal was greatly improved. Can see it earning support from a number of a number of floating voters.
Will be roundly booed and support from the Baltics will be thin.
Strong visual package with plenty of diaspora. Will be marginal, but top-10 is a decent bet.
Italy top-10 @ 3.75
Will struggle for support, but one hopes she should get enough love from the juries to clear last place. Even so, the bet is worth covering.
Cracking jury rehearsal and the Softengine boys have a strong indie/rock USP this year.
Ruth Lorenzo displayed far more passion than Sanna, and her TV performance appears more authentic.
An explosive song with an earworm whistled hook. Should have jury support and plenty of love from female voters.
Dark song with a dark stage show. Not feeling the love, though I understand I might be in the minority. Don’t see a placed finish.
Vastly superior jury performance last night. The camera angles really captured Firelight’s arena-sounding chorus.
Basim and his Cliché Love song was back to its national final form last night. With a strong pop package, the host nation should receive decent support.
Denmark win e/w to 4-places 1/5 odds – 41.0 @ Coral.
Denmark top-10 – 1.5 @ Coral.
Voting order suggests a Western nationwon the jury vote, and with Sweden on in the race, I’d have to say Netherlands vs Sweden is a good shout. Plus, if you think Netherlands can win, 5.0 is the best price on the high street.
25. San Marino
Valentina qualified. For San Marino, that’s a win! I don’t see much support for San Marino outside of Italy and even those points are expected to be low. Having said that, San Marino’s historically dodgy jury might do a deal, so expect one or two questionable points.
San Marino Last – 5.0 @ Coral
26. United Kingdom
Molly stole the show at last night’s jury rehearsal, so expect at least a top-5 jury placing. Now it’s down to the televote and I have to admit to being reasonably confident.
United Kingdom over 1.5 maximum points @ 2.5
That’s it from us this year. Good luck with your bets and I hope you enjoy what is expected to be an excellent Eurovision 2014! For what it’s worth, this time next year, I think we’ll be in Amsterdam/Rotterdam or Manchester. I’m 100% certain it won’t be Malmö or Stockholm, so get stuck in!