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Eurovision 2014 – Final Betting Guide

So this is it, six months work will reach it’s end later tonight when the Eurovision 2014 winner is crowned. If it was up to the new arrivals in my hotel, Austria’s Conchita Wurst would be the runaway winner. We have to operate in the real world though and looking at the voting order published this morning, I think we should prepare for the ‘The’ nations taking the win: that’s (The) UK or Netherlands.

Below is my annual Eurovision Final Best Bet Guide where I have isolated the best bets for each country based on my opinion of their eventual finishing position. There are one or two value positions thrown in too.

1. Ukraine

Maria put in a strong jury rehearsal and opening the show shouldn’t necessarily be a disadvantage.
 Ukraine top-10 circa 1.4

2. Belarus

In a Eastern-Bloc sandwich. I can’t see Belarus doing well, but nor do I see them coming last.

 Who Will Russia Give their 12 points to? ‘OTHER’ @ 21.0

3. Azerbaijan

Poor draw. Insipid song. Forgettable staging (having watched other nations).

 Lay top-10 under evens.

 

 Who Will Russia Give their 12 points to? ‘Azerbaijan’ @ 6.0

4. Iceland

Bright staging, catchy song, but hampered by a strong collection of songs from their Nordic neighbours.

 Iceland to finish last @ 13.0

5. Norway

Fifth slot isn’t the best and I feel Carl Espen’s quality song will be overshadowed by bigger entries.

 Lay top ten circa 3.0

6. Romania

Romania should perform well on the televote, but I fear the juries will rank this desperate song quite low (aka Germany 2013).

 FINLAND vs Romania @ 2.1

7. Armenia

Aram not given the best running order slot and you’d have to conclude that he failed to win his semi-final. Maybe he didn’t even place.

  Lay top-3 circa 2.5

8. Montenegro

Sergej should enjoy plenty of support from the vast Balkan diaspora spread across Europe. Doubt it’ll feature to highly on the jury chart, but I expect a finish 15th-20th.

No Bet.

9. Poland

Should be a fan favourite and predict 8th-14th finish.

 Back to lay – current price 330+.

10. Greece

Should be another fan favourite and I predict a sharp price contraction once the UK punters get involved during  the show.

Top Balkan @ 1.45

 

 Top-10 finish circa 1.6

11. Austria

Probably came top-5 with many Western jurors. Eastern support is still debatable. Could be top-5. If you think Conchita isn’t winning Eurovision, then lay lay lay!

Lay top-3 circa evens.

12. Germany

Below par jury performance and somewhat overshadowed in the running order. Plus, all the Germanic votes will go to Netherlands and Austria.

Germany to finish last – 6.0 @ SportingBet

13. Sweden

Sanitary Sanna and her sanitised Scandi-ballad. The voting order suggests she’s not winning, so keep on laying!

Lay Sweden to win circa 3.8

 

Lay Sweden top-3 circa 1.7 or…

 

 Sweden not top-3 @ 2.3

14. France

Impressive and memorable staging. Jury rehearsal was greatly improved. Can see it earning support from a number of a number of floating voters.

 France top-10 back-to-lay circa 10.0

15. Russia

Will be roundly booed and support from the Baltics will be thin.

No bet.

16. Italy

Strong visual package with plenty of diaspora. Will be marginal, but top-10 is a decent bet.

Italy top-10 @ 3.75

17. Slovenia

Will struggle for support, but one hopes she should get enough love from the juries to clear last place. Even so, the bet is worth covering.

 Slovenia last place @ 10.0

18. Finland

Cracking jury rehearsal and the Softengine boys have a strong indie/rock USP this year.

No bet.

19. Spain

Ruth Lorenzo displayed far more passion than Sanna, and her TV performance appears more authentic.

 Finishing position 6th-10th @ 3.25

 

 Spain’s finishing position 13th or better @ 1.75

20. Switzerland

An explosive song with an earworm whistled hook. Should have jury support and plenty of love from female voters.

 Switzerland +130.5 handicap @ 13.0 (was 21.0)

 Switzerland top-10 @ 4.2

21. Hungary

Dark song with a dark stage show. Not feeling the love, though I understand I might be in the minority. Don’t see a placed finish.

 Lay top-5 circa 2.2

22. Malta

Vastly superior jury performance last night. The camera angles really captured Firelight’s arena-sounding chorus.

 Malta +70.5 handicap @ 21.0

23. Denmark

Basim and his Cliché Love song was back to its national final form last night. With a strong pop package, the host nation should receive decent support.

Denmark win e/w to 4-places 1/5 odds – 41.0 @ Coral.

Denmark top-10 – 1.5 @ Coral.

 Denmark top Nordic nation @ 5.5

24. Netherlands

Voting order suggests a Western nationwon the jury vote, and with Sweden on in the race, I’d have to say Netherlands vs Sweden is a good shout. Plus, if you think Netherlands can win, 5.0 is the best price on the high street.

 NETHERLANDS vs Sweden @ 2.26

 

 Netherlands win @ 5.0

 

 Netherlands/United Kingdom duel forecast 17.0

25. San Marino

Valentina qualified. For San Marino, that’s a win! I don’t see much support for San Marino outside of Italy and even those points are expected to be low. Having said that, San Marino’s historically dodgy jury might do a deal, so expect one or two questionable points.

San Marino Last – 5.0 @ Coral

26. United Kingdom

Molly stole the show at last night’s jury rehearsal, so expect at least a top-5 jury placing. Now it’s down to the televote and I have to admit to being reasonably confident.

 United Kindgom to win @ 11.0 e/w 4-places 1/4 odds.

 

United Kingdom over 1.5 maximum points @ 2.5

 

 Netherlands/United Kingdom duel forecast 17.0

 

 United Kingdom top-10 @ 1.6

That’s it from us this year. Good luck with your bets and I hope you enjoy what is expected to be an excellent Eurovision 2014!  For what it’s worth, this time next year, I think we’ll be in Amsterdam/Rotterdam or Manchester. I’m 100% certain it won’t be Malmö or Stockholm, so get stuck in!

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

48 comments

  1. There’s also THE Ukraine lol
    Do you think there’s a chance for a nil points? It’s been a while. I believe San Marino can do it.

  2. Nice tips Gav. I would like to add to the Sweden’s lay list. Denmark to give Sweden 12 points @1.65 on betfair (best friends). Translates into 2.85 that they award any other nation than Sweden their 12 points. For example Netherlands which is charting higher than Sweden in Denmark.

  3. Gav, thanks for everything this season, it’s been invaluable and a great learning experience. I’m just going to paste in some of my final thoughts on the other contenders adapted from a comments on Rob’s site;

    At this point in the game, all sorts of wild suggestions start flying about and things can get so confusing, so it’s helpful to just take one big step back to square one. If the Netherlands really had a chance to win this year with that song, we would have known and the betting odds would have reflected it before Tuesday. I agree that staging can make or break a song, but to turn a rank outsider into a winner is a little hyperbolic, isn’t it? I actually think it would stand a far better chance in the first half in amongst all the craziness from the Eastern bloc, Austria and Iceland… but while slot 24 makes them dangerous, I think that after Basim’s (I know it’s dirge but let’s face it) televoter catnip – too many people are going to find the 6 minute streak of Netherlands and San Marino too mature and pedestrian for their tastes.

    And then along comes Molly, dressed, and showered in gold. I was listening in on escXtra’s stream last night and I’ve also seen two in-stadium video recordings of the jury final performance. She performed with so much gusto and is really making her claim to the trophy. Being on last does slightly convert that “winner” edge into more of a “wow what a great ending” – but at the end of the day, it looks and sounds like a winner from top to bottom, even if it isn’t the song with the most impact, the most emotional uplift, the most commercial relevance, (though it has a fair amount of all of these,) it’s going to end up being the most agreeable. When I force myself to ignore all the doubt, all the hype, all the second-guessing and wild suggestions from within the bubble, I can’t see Molly getting beaten.

    In less than 24 hours time, we will know the winner and we will then sit back and watch YouTube clips of the other contenders and a part of our brain will come alive and we will think “why did we think this was going to beat that?” Try to put yourself in that mindset right now while watching the Dutch and Austrian performances. Of course it’s lovely, but really, what is there in those 3 minutes that really screams winner? I am feeling the unnerving pull of that hype for sure, but if I keep my impressions staunchly independent and go over all my notes, all I can find is that it’s sailing through to the final despite the lack of market faith but my gut suggested it wouldn’t best Anouk’s result. I do now think it will get higher than 9th for being more broadly appealing and radio-friendly than Birds, but even on Tuesday night, I was not watching that and thinking winner. I was just fascinated by the camerawork and beginning to understand what you guys were all talking about during rehearsals. I think Hungary is a more likely candidate for the trophy to be honest, but the current Betfair odds seem to be distancing him from the other favourites, which is reassuring for me.

    Moving on to Austria, I do believe there is potential for a Babushki effect in the voting, especially given the overwhelming amount of coverage Conchita has received. I’m actually irritated that I don’t go a single day in the last few months without seeing a picture of her. No, I don’t hate her at all, I’ve warmed to her via interviews, but if I think back to the Austrian national final in 2012 when I saw her for the first time, I was just so caught up in expressing my highest levels of WTF that I had a slew of “homophobe!” comments coming my way. I just had no idea what to make of Conchita, is it a drag queen, is it a transsexual, should I be amazed or should I be repulsed? That’s all cleared up now – but while the Babushki were universally appealing and loveable figures that brought instant smiles and fun, Conchita is not relatable unless you’ve faced similar discrimination in your own life. It’s not about homophobic or not homophobic. I’ve seen comments of Icelanders who haven’t got a clue what to say when they see her. Conchita herself has said in an early interview with Eurovision.tv “people don’t have to like it, they just have to accept it.” So the reality is, those people of the western audience who are liberal only have one less barrier to overcome than everybody else. Just because you’re liberal, it doesn’t mean you instantly love Conchita. The beard is ultimately going to be her best ally and her worst enemy simultaneously. If she really wanted to win, she should have entered a song that’s going to launch a pop music career for her. What she has entered instead is pure X Factor fodder, except with no VT that communicates her “story” to prep the viewer beforehand. All she has is 3 minutes on stage and a very equalising postcard to win all of Europe over, and she has to count on pan-European positive press coverage to act as her X Factor sob story video. It’s just not going to work.

    To Gav and everybody else in the ESCtips community, good luck tonight and may the best win.

  4. Great to read all the contributions on here and thanks as always to Gav. Good luck to everyone and enjoy the show.

    As always I have a myriad of different bets on all different kinds of markets, so I’ll just cover the main themes.

    Lay Sweden (in as many ways as possible) – I’ve never understood this song as a Eurovision contender and understand it even less now that it’s favourite. The song is very unoriginal which will dent the jury vote that a song like this relies on, while the performance is so polished and clinical that there is very little connection with the viewer. I envisage an underwhelming televote and a lower top 10 finish.

    Switzerland Top 10 – been taking a lot of this one @ 7/2-4/1 since yesterday. It will be marginal and is a little hampered by being so close to Denmark, but the happy go lucky song and Sebalter’s connection with the camera draws parallels in my mind with Malta last year (less engaging but more telegenic)

    In terms of the winner market it’s the tightest of years and there’s so many western European contenders that as others have said it will be a question of which has crossover appeal in the east. So in the absence of giving a 1-2-3 all I’ll say is that Hungary @ 29 are overpriced imo. It’s probably a little dark to generate the mass Saturday night appeal to win but every song has its price. They have done nothing wrong all week despite being continuously drifted by the market and I think it might be fishing in a slightly different pond to the other contenders.

  5. Oh and the final thing which I say every year – the various crazy odds movements in the markets during the show are usually based on nothing whatsoever. Trust the months of research rather than the impulsive urges 😉

  6. OK, Here’s Shell’s Top4:

    1. Austria
    2. Netherlands
    3. Armenia
    4. Hungary

  7. 50-1 semi 1 winner tipped Gav, nice work!

    • ^this
      and the 24/7 availabilty for answering any questions from the community. Gav is the man!

      Sadly, we didn’t get the community board really started, I was too busy with my own bets, but it was probably also a tight year where there was lots of differing opninion. Onto next year with the hopes of Ireland sending the duchess of value, the one and only #CarCrashKasey again!

  8. I’m also giving a shout out to Archi and Johnny Ludlow, who were spot on with Austria really early from the start, when it was still trading at 40-1 or higher.
    The market was extremely blind for how popular this entry was until the semi and I know it’s really difficult and worrying to follow one’s own way, while the majority of people go the other way.

    • Not just that, but I’d also like to commend Archi and pimp (and others I’m sure) for sticking to believing in a good Swedish finish, despite all us others talking about finishes at 6+ place. Man, that top3 finish cost me a big chunk of this year’s winnings 🙂

    • Thanks shell! Last year I think I let other peoples opinions affect my judgment at least a little bit, so this year I decided to follow what is written about different countries and what othres think but also made a conscious effort to not let them affect my decisions. So therefore when I saw this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBpgIrI9cDQ I pretty much decided to put money on her outright. Me and Johnny both came to the same conclusion pretty much on our own also. We are twins so maybe we just think alike, but it was a bit reassuring for sure that he believed the same.

      Seeing the “My heart will go on” video made me feel even stronger that she will do well. At the beginning of the song people look quite reserved but by the end of it they are on their feet applauding her. She managed to win the whole crown on her side within 3 three minute performance. I bet she managed to do the same last night to a lot of casual viewers. The key is to make you feel something, and she made me tear up, that’s rare. Such a captivating character she is. A deserved winner for sure! Realy happy for her.

      Another thing I wanted to touch is the fear of her not getting points at all from a few countries. She got points from all but 4! Ukraine even gave her 8 points and russia 5! I dont know who voted for her, but I believe I did say that even a small vocal minority can make a difference. Maybe regular Ukrainian and Russian people voted for her, but could very well be that the minorities had a big part in it. It’s very reassuring to see how she managed to get points all over europe!

      Also, who in their right mind believes San Marino wasn’t bribed by Azerbaijan? Like there is a chance they decided to give Azerbaijan 12 on their own without any foul play? 🙂 Glad to see them fail miserably with all the buying of votes scandals.

      Thank you all for a great eurovision season! It’s been a lot of fun and this year it also made me a nice chunk of money! Such a great event, can’t wait for Eurovision season 2015! See you all once the national finals being.

      • One more thing. according to a finnish newspaper Austria was third in Russia’s televoting. Havent seen the numbers myself yet (are they visible somewhere already?) but if this is true then it pretty much confirms that these countries are either not as close minded as people seem to think, or that small minoroties can make a difference.

        • Split results jury/televote here Archi,Austria was 3rd in Russian televotes.Oh and i managed to sell all that Poland outright in running at 150s,)

          http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results?event=1893&voter=RU

          Or the direct link for the rest of the vote splits for each country,

          http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results

        • It’s true. All of the rankings by each individual juror and the televoters are on Eurovision.tv, as promised.

          • So it seems. I didnt do a thourough research on those results yet (Need to do that at some point for next year) but it seems that in two countries Austria got placed number 1 by all jurors which were Slovenia and Finland (my country). Austria also won televote in both of these countries

            Hate between Azerbaijan and Armenia was also pretty clear as Azerbaijan ranked Armenia 25th by all jurors and in televote 🙂 Armenia returned the favor by doing the same to Azerbaijan.

            Armenia seemed to get shafted mostly by jurors, they did remarkably well in televote (Glanced through the results so not 100% sure about this. I’ll try to analyze these results via super cool excel sheet some time in the future)

  9. Yeah great call on Austria from pimp,Archi Johny and shell.I had no cover on it in the outright until pimp really pushed me before the semi while it was still 20s to cover it so thanks for that pimp.

    I was a bit miffed The Netherlands were so close but happy with the 50s a place.Them winning the semi made up for it as well at 67s.Great result.

    My strike rate this year on winning bets was pretty poor in the final.Only landed 40% of my match bets and 1 out of 4 top ten bets (Russia).Thats poor.Hungary and Ukraine also i had top 4 getting 5th and 6th.

    So im very happy with the final cash out figures,but im not very happy about how i got them.

    ie mostly through trading and 2 high odds decent stake lands on The Netherlands.Hopefully next year it will be more spread.Then again iv never seen an outright market trade like this years did.I hope its the same next year.

    The interesting thing going forward as well is the Big 5.Apart from Spain they all had a disaster.

  10. Yes, thanks to all for the contributions this year, and for Gav’s indefatiguability in Copenhagen! Well done to those who tipped Austria early, those who retained confidence in Sweden in the face of almost universal dissent, and the NL long odds tipsters.

    Will be interesting to see how next year shapes up – will we get some pull outs from countries in the east given that Conchita will be very prominent in next years show, and given the way they were treated in the running order this year? The booing for Russia and current political situation may reduce their appetite as well.

    It’s possible that the BBC will also come under some public pressure re: the contest after yet another lacklustre showing. My guess is that as the biggest contributor to the contest they applied some pressure to the EBU this year which is why we saw such favourable actions towards the UK this year as they see the need to re-engage the UK public into believing in the contest. That a good result didn’t materialise (and that it was one by a drag act with a beard) leaves this perception at an all time low, and while it’s not going to be a threat to their funding/involvement next year, it’s a trend that needs to be reversed for the long term prospects of the contest.

  11. *yawn* once again the uk entry is hyped to the max, and once again the uk flops, the next time someone says the uk have a good chance to win I’m just going to ignore it as its now obvious that eurovision fans will rate any entry that says United Kingdom next to it shockingly high even if the entry sucks.

    • I’m just curious what you’re going to say next time someone says the Irish entry is awesome and that we punters completely underestimate it?

    • Curiously this year was probably the first time in a decade that a UK entry had any kind of buzz about it on Eurovision betting sites (with the exception of 2009 when it largely met expectations.) In general betting sites such as this and sofabet have read UK song performance very well over the last few years.

      Often overrated by fan polls and the outright market price, but seldom by betting sites.

    • Being Irish myself I didn’t think that we were in a particularly strong position to take pot shots at another nations entry. At least the UK tried something new, we sent another dated entry that bored Europe …again.

      • I’m sorry but the uk entrys are constantly overrated by fans year in year out, and it will be the same next year just you wait and see as expectations for the uk are so incredibly low that if they send anything that isn’t complete trash they will be loved….

        • Cathan, you were vehemently defending your own country’s song as well. Pot kettle black.

          • I’m saying it’s hypocritical.

          • its not really, we were liked 20th in the betting and weren’t really expected to do well, i may have said that we could do well but the betting didn’t say that…. the UK however were 3rd! in the betting and were expected to do well, in the end ireland did finish around the place the betting suggested and the uk finished way below the place the betting suggested. you forget that there are a huge amount of british eurovision fans out there and they all put there money on there entrys which is why there always overrated by bookies so its not really a good indicator on british entrys. the one time ireland were predicted to do well in betting we delivered, and with the uks last 4 predictions with the bettings they flopped.

  12. Another enjoyable esc season comes to an end, id like to say thanks to gav for his tireless work and coverage over the whole season.
    Well done to shell johnny and archi and anyone else believing in conchita from a early stage
    And thanks to all the other commenters and experts that make the esctips comuunity the place to be.

    One big lesson i think we can all take into next year is KEEP A OPEN MIND.
    This year we have had both austria and netherland come from tripple figure odds to finish first and second in the outright,
    The people who are bold enough to make predictions like these at a early stage should be respected for looking outside of the box.

  13. Well. The last time the UK closed the show – Austria won. The next year, Vienna 1967, the UK won with Sandie Shaw. Onwards and upwards eh? 🙂

  14. I would like to thank you all guys for this exciting journey, it would not have been the same without you. Congratulations everyone that believed in Austria from early stages.

    I am quite satisfied with my overall result’s having almost doubled up my balance, I have a lot of regrets though, selling out on Austria only to keep a decent profit. I remember buying it for 110 but decided to keep the high greens on UK and NL.

    I read the half of the anti-russian climate correctly and the juries didn’t punish Russia and I got a nice @4 hitting home at the top ten market, and a nice back to lay odds on the winner market. The other half I didn’t read as well was Austria being pushed all the way to win it.

    My worst bet was laying Romania for top 10. Ironically I won it, but it was so close and I was so sure this was free money. I consider Romania’s result to be the most shocking I have ever witnessed since following the competition.

    My best bet was taking NL @81 for the semi final win, absolutely beautiful though I obviously should have put more on it 🙂

    I refuse to admit my British bets were solely bad judgements to blame. Eurojury had UK winning the competition. Everybody that is doubting the eurojury as a good indicator of the actual result should look into the eurojury top 10 and the actual jury top 10. The eurojury had 9 finalists out of the 10 from the actual juries, only the UK to miss out! For me that proves what a horrendous show UK put on the final night, the raw, immature version was far superior. Such a shame bbc couldn’t hire a decent stylist and a stage manager, they put their effort in wrong places.

    I’m going to miss esctips and my eurovision friends. Hopefully I see you all well next year.

  15. Hi, I’m a longtime lurker on this site but I just want to express my thanks for your always interesting coverage.

    I did OK this year but messed up a bit with Switzerland – I thought it would perform better than it did and now I’ve seen the results I can see it was punished by the juries who seemed to love the dull Mumford and Sons Malta entry (which bombed in most countries, UK excepting). I’ve not got round to analysing the data yet as I’m not all that keen of cutting and pasting every entry into Excel – hopefully someone in the fan community can download it more effectively and make that available. But I have seen that Malta was 5th in the jury vote and 25th in the fan vote!!. It’s also interesting how the UK and Ireland destroyed the Polish diaspora vote. While I sort of approve I do think those voters have been ripped off. We had deserved winner though.

    And finally I live in Vienna so if anyone wants some tips etc next year about what to do and where to stay I’ll be happy to give any advice.

  16. the UK flop is one of the most delicious moments for me in eurovision for a long time…

    • Schadenfreude – from German, literal translation ‘to harm joy’….think about it.

      • what? p.s stop pretending your irish we all know your a brit pretending to be irish…

        • Should have known that you wouldn’t understand…

          • i get what it means, having joy from a countries misfortune yes? thanks a lot for that…

          • But that is -exactly- what you just expressed. Especially with words like “delicious”.

            Anyway, onwards and upwards. The UK’s got the right man for the job, we tried to do our own version of what’s been winning Eurovision lately and it didn’t work out. We’re in good hands with Guy Freeman who I’m sure will be thinking very carefully about what our next move is. He is out to change the British public’s perception of the contest and re-define what kind of talent it attracts. As long as he is our Head of Delegation, the UK are well and truly in it to win it, and there’s no reason we won’t be a country on people’s lips next year too. I doubt anyone vehemently defending a country so woefully out of touch that every entry they have sent since Dustin the Turkey was either written by Jonas Gladnikoff or was performed by Jedward(!) is in a position to claim any kind of self-affirmation at the moment. The UK may have fallen, but good god, at least we didn’t appear to be completely out of ideas this year.

          • Listen… the uk are the big 5 version of sweden a country that could send anything and be loved by the fans, secondly please stop trying to change the conversation on about ireland cause i really don’t care ireland being neighbours to a fanwank nation like the uk will always get abuse. 4 times you were high in the bookies and 4 times you flopped, ireland 1 time we were high in the bookies, and that 1 time we delivered, its a pity your the uk because if your entry is shit none is going to tell you until the contest ends…

  17. For anybody thats interested Stan James has the UK at 50/1 to win Eurovision 2015. Unfortunately Stan only accepted a little wager from me. I had better luck with Paddy Power where I managed to get 120euro on at a whopping 66/1…. Paddy has now thought better of this and slashed their odds to 20/1.
    I feel certain that the UK will not be anything like these long odds come next year and surely this represents a golden opportunity to lay off for a handsome profit.

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