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Eurovision 2014: Running Order Published

Following tonight’s second semi-final, the EBU have just published Saturday’s Grand Final running order in full.

  1. Ukraine
  2. Belarus
  3. Azerbaijan
  4. Iceland
  5. Norway
  6. Romania
  7. Armenia
  8. Montenegro
  9. Poland
  10. Greece
  11. Austria
  12. Germany
  13. Sweden
  14. France
  15. Russia
  16. Italy
  17. Slovenia
  18. Finland
  19. Spain
  20. Switzerland
  21. Hungary
  22. Malta
  23. Denmark
  24. The Netherlands
  25. San Marino
  26. United Kingdom

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  1. San Marino finished last in the semi by the look of this and should be considered for backing for last place.
    The order is to help the Netherlands as much as possible.Best slot followed by the song that will take nothing away from them and show their quality.
    The UK in last is designed to hide the fact they are getting winners pyro curtains etc.It will now simply look like the end of the show so all the wow bits.
    Ukraine in slot 1 isnt a shock.Have the delegation said to the EBU we dont want it this year?.Maybe.Still a top 4 slot might still just be in reach.Was she second in the semi?.I think it might of been NL then Ukraine (hope it was).

    It also looks like Sweden didnt do that well in the semi.Getting 13 is a bit of a leg up.

    My top 4,
    1.Netherlands 2. UK, 3. Ukraine, 4.Austria

  2. “The UK in last is designed to hide the fact they are getting winners pyro curtains etc.”

    I think it’s much simpler than that: they want to give them the best starting point possible. Pimp slot AND after San Marino? Good God.

  3. It may be worth splitting them up to see who is likely to hit the top 10 and higher.

    These are the market leaders – running order first (position in betting in brackets)

    Ukraine 1 (7) – also usually finishes top 10
    Norway 5 (10)
    Armenia 7 (4)
    Greece 10 (9) – also usually finishes top 10
    Austria 11 (2)
    Sweden 13 (1) – also usually finishes top 10
    Hungary 21 (6)
    Denmark 23 (8)
    Netherlands 24 (3)
    United Kingdom 26 (5)

    note: UK, Hungary and Netherlands rarely finish Top 10

    Other nations that usually finish top 10:

    Azerbaijan 3
    Romania 6
    Russia 15
    Italy 16

    And I’ll just note two outsiders that may just benefit from the draw

    Finland 18
    Malta 22

    There’s two ways to read Sweden’s position – either they scored low in the SF and therefore can be given a late first half running order because they are no threat or TPTB are giving the best placed Scandi country a fair chance.

    It could be that this is a year when the majority of the Top 10 are from the lower half of the draw (i think that happened in 2011?)

    If we are to accept the conspiracy theory that the running order is a reaction to the SF results then we could surmise the following:

    1st SF
    Ukraine and Azer did well and therefore extra effort is being made to dampen their vote
    Russia also did quite well but not as well as the two already mentioned.
    Netherlands also did well as they look like the chosen ones
    Hungary didn’t do so well as thought and TPTB are happy to let it have a decent draw

    2nd SF
    Greece did well but not so scary as the organisers felt the need to panic with their placing
    Norway didn’t do so well and are being written off in favour of Sweden (if you go with the 2nd Swedish theory above)
    There’s really nothing else to come out of the 2nd SF except that Finland and Malta look to be getting a leg up.

    of course all speculation which may be completely wrong. please chip in with any further theories

  4. Just one other way I’ve thought of looking at the running order from Hungary onwards. Not saying this is the EBU’s intention – just one way the audience may percieve it.

    Hungary at 21 is in prime position to win with a full throttle, exhilarating performance of a highly credible song. Hungary have never won and would make a very affordable trip for many delegations in 2015, but equally, might not be the most spectacular place to hold a 60th Anniversary for the very same reason. Andras’ telegenic looks and “I’ll protect the girl” narrative is going to get him some big televote. The structure of his song is unconventional in Eurovision terms but would be a major reputation boost to the contest should it win. With regret, I also feel the need to remind people of the colour issues. I say it as a plural because Hungary also has possibly the most red staging of the contest.

    Malta is also in a good position with a song that I did think would be capable of doing very well due to its family, summery feel. It’s commercial, radio-friendly and uplifting, with relatable (although mature) performers. Maybe a bit on the cheesy side and their performance last night was by no means amazing. I believe the market has constantly underrated Malta and I’m disappointed they have not ended up as any back to lay value.

    Denmark at 23 is going to have the “host nation” roar in the audience, and I’m hoping that Basim’s similar heartthrob looks with a much more commercial, safer song will contribute to pushing Hungary down just a little bit, but if his performance isn’t strong enough it could only serve to help Andras come out on top of the cute boy leagues.

    Netherlands at 24…. hands up who saw this coming? If I had known this was a contender for the win at this point, I’d have been like a kid in a candy store with those three-figure odds available before Tuesday night. It’s doing well in the iTunes charts, but it isn’t going to be to everybody’s taste. It’s touching on a trendy style of music for sure and it’s not cheesy or Eurovisionny at all. Will the millennial generation vote for this? It’s top 5 I think. The camerawork for this performance is mesmerising.too, but it’s also quite the comedown after Denmark, and it’s hard to say whether or not that’s a good thing. I do see it as a threat, it stands out, but it’s difficult to watch it and really get a feeling of “winner”, I just get a feeling of “beautiful.” It’s artistic.

    San Marino at 25 is no threat, but its significance is in it being part of a two sleepy ballad streak. Some people are going to love the Netherlands, others are doing to find it duller than bread and water for breakfast on a February morning. The Dutch entry is, in my opinion, fantastic, but this is my main point…

    Are the Netherlands and San Marino being used as a 6 minute breathing space before Molly comes to finish up proceedings?

    I am most definitely nervous right now, I’m more or less covered on the outright for Hungary, Denmark, Netherlands and my biggest green is the UK. I see Hungary as Molly’s main competition, and I maintain that the UK has the traditional Eurovision winner, but do these only win for the lack of anything more to mainstream tastes? I believe they do. Still – Molly isn’t from the Eurovision bubble, so please God she connects with the camera and knocks it out of the park. If ALL of Europe are more impressed by Andras’ power and emotion despite the ‘danger danger’ stage colours and his race, then c’est la vie. I’m confident Hungary will at least place.

    Fingers crossed for tradition.

    Armenia should also still be knocking on the door of the top 5, and Austria will probably be 5th – 10th if Conchita wins a good amount of people over, but there is nothing about this song which says winner to me. It’s visually powerful, yes, but as an act, it’s extremely niche, extremely alienating to many people, extremely self-indulgent and very very very gay. It’s price in the outright is frankly, laughable. Sweden will float quietly anywhere into 6th-15th without troubling anyone. This is a Hungary vs UK duke-out for me, with Netherlands being a dark horse.

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