Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Historical Support Strength
Germany have chosen newcomer band Elaiza to perform “Is It Right?” in Copenhagen. In a remarkable Cinderella story, from applying via a youtube selection process and winning the wild card ticket from an unfavourable draw in the small NDR club concert, Elaiza have managed to fight off huge German household names like Unheilig and the, in some areas of Germany, very popular shanty rockers of Santiano. With that result German televoters have thrown yet another curveball at Eurovision punters who are left puzzled and wondering how to deal with such a left field entry in what is shaping up to be a very uncharacteristic contest.
If one tries to analyse Elaiza’s surprising success story one has to consider the sympathy votes they were gathering during their national final. Although sympathy will also play a role on the international stage, the emphasis and thematisation of the David/Goliath aspect is obviously unlikely to repeat itself in Copenhagen.
It has also been mentioned by some that Germany has shown a tendency to be a little bit more eccentric than the rest of Europe when they awarded their 12 points in 2013 to the modest Hungarian hipster entry “Kedvesem”. So is Elaiza’s victory in Germany just another case of German televoters being a little weird or are the viewers of one of Europe’s biggest nations onto something here, possibly foreshadowing a trend of a gradual change of culture in the contest?
“Is It Right” is everything a successful Eurovision song is not. The song’s vibe is neo-folkloristic, it is anti-climactic, it is bohemian, it is post-industrial and it is honest. This can’t possibly do well, one would be inclined to say.
But on the other hand “Is It Right” also does something right where other left field entries failed in the past. It is instant and catchy, it offers a very accessible structural simplicity. It has proven to work for first-time listeners in the German pre-selection and that is an aspect that shouldn’t be underestimated. There is undoubtedly some audience for this kind of song, how large that audience really is that remains to be seen.
It also remains unclear how the international juries will deal with the German entry, as they have shown last year a trend to mark everything down that doesn’t fit the norm of commercial pop music. One can not expect Elaiza to score well with juries on the basis of last year’s jury results. On the other hand, juries have also shown a tendency to reward true musicianship on stage, as Italy’s 2011 jury result indicated, and with Elaiza it is very visible that they actually do know how to play the instruments they bring to the stage.
Germany does not possess historical voting strength and considering this amongst other unknown factors one has to remain pessimistic towards Germany’s chances in 2014 and predict another bottom10 finish. It would be wise to watch out for how they are received in the hall in Copenhagen and evaluate if they might be able to pull off one more of their surprising upsets. .
Where will Germany finish this year?
- Final Performance
Highest score (since 2004): 173 (2010 – Lena – Satellite)
Lowest score (since 2004): 04 (2005 – Gracia – Run & Hide)
Average final position: 15th
Average final score: 71 points
Spain – 5.0
Denmark – 5.0
Portugal – 4.5
Belgium – 3.8
United Kingdom – 3.8
Netherlands – 3.7
Italy – 3.7
Austria – 3.6