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Sweden: Sanna Nielsen – Undo

Sanna Nielsen has won Melodifestivalen with her song Undo and will represent last year's hosts in Copenhagen. Before the Melodifestivalen heats got underway, there were several names I disclosed to close punter colleagues.  The most prominent post-contest names were Ellen Benediktson, Outtrigger, Ace Wilder and Sanna Nielsen. When I first heard Sanna’s one minute clip, I admitted to being slightly underwhelmed, but given her popularity, Sanna was a cert for the final. With Helena Paparizou in the same heat, most commentators assumed Yohio would fall short and suffer the indignity of going to andra chansen, but it was the former…

Review Overview

Song Appeal
Vocal Strength
Staging Potential
Likely Televote Appeal
Likely Jury Appeal
Historical Support Strength

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With the strength of Denmark’s fun kiddie-pop and Norway’s moving ballad, is there room for Sanna’s rather ordinary ballad in the reckoning for top-10?

User Rating: 4.09 ( 68 votes)

Sanna Nielsen has won Melodifestivalen with her song Undo and will represent last year’s hosts in Copenhagen.

Before the Melodifestivalen heats got underway, there were several names I disclosed to close punter colleagues.  The most prominent post-contest names were Ellen Benediktson, Outtrigger, Ace Wilder and Sanna Nielsen.

When I first heard Sanna’s one minute clip, I admitted to being slightly underwhelmed, but given her popularity, Sanna was a cert for the final. With Helena Paparizou in the same heat, most commentators assumed Yohio would fall short and suffer the indignity of going to andra chansen, but it was the former Eurovision winner that was humiliated.  In my opinion, either Christer Björkman made a gross error of judgement, or he played a blinder depending on whether you thought Helena’s song was stronger than Sanna’s.

I am of the persuasion that it was Helena’s Survivor that possessed the greatest potential as a Eurovision entry, but after much toing and froing on the leader board, it was Sanna’s Undo that took the chequered flag with Ace Wilders Busy Doin’ Nothin’ a close second.

As a pop-ballad, Undo is a gripping three minutes with some wonderful haunting moments, but as a Eurovision entry, it’s a bit formulaic and passé. Furthermore, the yodeled refrain is somewhat hard to accept on first listen, which will surely put people off outside of Sanna’s ardent Swedish fan base?

As has rightly been pointed out in the comments section already, Undo is a Eurovision-ballad-by-numbers similar to Georgia’s Waterfall – also written by a Swede. For those with similar memory lapses as me, Georgia finished 15th last year.

Georgia is thought to be a strong Eurovision nation, but when you dig deeper, it’s apparent that Georgia tend to do well when their big Bloc allies send duff songs.  The same pattern is repeated in the Nordic bloc.

The Nordic nations have enjoyed a strong record of late, but it amazes how often the markets overrate their collective chances.  One has to go all the way back to 2003 to witness three Nordic nations in the top-10.  Furthermore, it’s quite rare to witness two nations from the Nordic block in the top-5, which has only happened twice in recent history and with exceptionally strong songs.

With the strength of Denmark’s fun kiddie-pop and Norway’s moving ballad, is there room for Sanna’s rather ordinary ballad in the reckoning for top-10?

The debate is open to you…

Where will Sweden finish in Copenhagen?

  • Qualification History
  • Final Performance
  • Allies
Since the introduction of the new semi-final format, Sweden have failed to qualify once times in six attempts. 84% qualification success.

Highest semi-final score: 214 (2006: Carola – Invincible)
Lowest semi-final score: 54 (2008: Charlotte Perrelli – Hero)
Average semi-final finishing position: 5th
Average semi-final score: 128 points

Sweden has finished in the top-10 four times since 2004.

Highest score (since 2004): 372 (2012: Loreen – Euphoria)
Lowest score (since 2004): 30 (2005: Martin Stenmarck – Las Vegas)
Average final position: 11th
Average final score: 124 points

Average Points Received

Denmark – 8.2
Norway – 7.4
Estonia – 6.9
Iceland – 6.0
Finland – 5.3
United Kingdom – 4.5
Malta – 4.2
Slovenia – 4.1

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94 comments

  1. I suppose it was her time. It was very close but she won it fair and square. YOHIO will be the winner of my heart though. <3 It was a good night.

  2. Since Ace won the jury vote and people continue to vote (stupid rule btw) that could have given extra incentive to Sanna’s voters. I thought it’s all over after juries and it’s possible that Ace voters thought the same. Or am I making things up just to explain Sanna’s vote that was always there? Anyway I’m glad I didn’t back Ace in-running at low odds.

    • I think that at least explains part of Sanna’s televote win, and definitely the 2pts difference. Too bad I was too dumb to think of this effect during the show, or I would likely have laid off more of my Ace green to Sanna… on the positive side, I apparently have a lot of stuff still to learn when it comes to Eurovision punting 🙂

      • Germany not giving Ace any votes as well,even a 4 would of seen her home.I must admit keeping the phone lines open after the jury and all the other goings on this year over the televote says SVT care more about the revenue from the votes more than anything.
        What we can see though from Ace winning the jury vote is that juries are looking at the whole package as a stand alone item rather than splitting down vocals/structure etc.
        ESC has gone more that way since probably Lena winning.
        We saw it last year even more.The juries vote like the televoters on mainstream contemporary songs.
        The Swedish chattering classes decided they didnt want to send a fantastic contemporary pop song.They went for the safe ballad.It was always going to be that fight to decide things.

  3. Damn that was close! I laid off some of my Ace @1.50 after they said it was so close they had to re-count (if I had been convinced that was the truth I would have laid off a lot more of course), but still ended with a twice as big green on Ace than on Sanna.

    Congrats to all Sanna-backers, anyway!

    • Nightmare of a final if you don’t speak Swedish. There were a few insiders playing on Betfair tonight. Glad I didn’t back Sanna on Betfair else I would have probably laid during jury points. Bet365 had a bad night lol.

      Shocked Ace didn’t win televote and astounded she didn’t win after coming so high on jury leader board.

      Thank god this strange Melfest season is over .

    • I had a great + on Sanna squall but 3.5 times higher on Ace but shut betfair down once id laid off Helena.Im pleased for Sanna and happy bets wise but you have to ask if MF is getting too middle class on the televote.That middle class vote has served me well over the season but it will make me look at things a lot more next year.

  4. Im really pleased for Sanna and its a great song.From a betting point a great win,BUT grrrrrrrrrrr soooooooo close to landing a 100/1 shot with Ace.Saying that 1 and 2 from the bets places withing 10 minutes of the markets opening in November im happy with.
    Ace was a much bigger win for me,but Sannas song and performance deserved the win.Happy with a good win,but so close to a fantastic win.
    As for ESC,great top 10 song that wont win.

  5. Lots of wins in my post but iv sunk 14 cans of Fosters)

  6. that was painful. convinced Ace would win during jury vote so took out more than i should of. not really that disastrous but healthy profit turned into a modest loss on pesky swedish televoters. can’t see sweden getting very high with this song though. maybe another shock non-qualifier for them?

  7. Sanna will do well in the final as shes a top drawer artist but cant win ESC with that song.
    Its high quality middle class fodder.
    5-12 id expect.
    This keeps playing into Ukraines hands as far as im concerned.

  8. Really, you think Ukraine has a better chance to win than Sweden? Maria is vocally mediocre at best and the song is nothing special. Ukraine has stronger diaspora of course and I dont know if there is such a thing as sympathy vote(?) but if there is I guess Ukraine is gonna get a bunch of those this year.
    Out of the chosen songs so far I really do think Sanna is the strongest. I also think that Sanna can beat Carl Espen, who is the most likely to be chosen from Norway… I might be underestimating ‘Silent Storm’ though…

    • It depends on the staging i think Archi and how the reworked song ends up for Ukraine.So far i still think it has the best potential.In its present form it wouldnt win of course but if everything falls into place i think they have a great chance.Im waiting to see what Russia and Azer come up with before i commit more to them though.
      Iv already backed Sweden on the outright a little and il probably keep it for now but i dont expect Sanna to win ESC.
      Im very tempted to sit back the rest of this year as the quality is so bad its a minefield.Things might improve as songs develop though.

  9. “undo” will be in the top 6, I think Hungary and Silent Storm will be going neck to neck…..
    Hungary is storming votes on all message boards!!

  10. Eurovision is becoming more and more manipulative.

  11. 2007 was the best year for Eurovision, but everything has been destroyed. Eurovision is now dead.

  12. Fair chance of top ten, but nothing higher.

  13. I think the main thing to remember about this song is that there’s no way it would have won without Sanna singing it. Partly to do with the quality of her voice, but mainly to do with her popularity amongst the Mello-voting part of the Swedish public. When you have a Svensktoppen number one at the age of twelve and make your Mello debut aged 16, certain people don’t forget.

  14. More trouble in Sweden?Looks like a large number of people wanting to vote for Ace couldnt get through and it was her phone line that bore the brunt of the technical problems.
    Seems from experienced traders that some very strange trades went through betfair on Ace losing after after the jury vote as well.I wasnt watching the trades so cant confirm.
    I thought sour grapes and just a headline but SVT seem to be confirming it was Aces line that bore the problems.Andy might be able to translate things better for us.

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/nojesbladet/melodifestivalen/article18507709.ab

    Looks like its made the front pages as well.

    • There’s actually nothing in the article that says Ace was disproportionately affected. On the contrary, the SVT rep says that the downtimes always hit a whole region when they do happen, and then for every entry. Who knows if that’s the case, but it makes sense actually – I don’t think the numbers themselves have assigned capacity, it wouldn’t make sense.

  15. It’s also logical that only Ace fans were calling and complaining as it was so close for her. Why would Sanna’s supporters complain as their girl won anyways? Probably any downtime that happened didnt affec the outomce. Only way it could have (if it actually went down like squall says) affected is if the downtimes happened in areas where Ace is hugely more popula than Sanna. Quite unlikely, huh?

  16. It seems to me the press in Sweden have an axe to grind with SVT and MF for some reason.A lot of it is probably down to the nepotism involved.It has been a poor season on the publicity front for SVT thats for sure.

    • i was watching betfair very carefully and i couldn’t understand why Ace wasn’t shortening significantly after the jury vote which sort of persuaded me to ‘fill my boots’. obviously as an inexperienced BF trader i came undone. it wasn’t just me who noticed Ace didn’t shorten as much as anticipated – Rob over at entertainmentodds also noticed. he felt some of the large money lays were suspicious.

    • Could also be that some anticipated the effect Ace’s slight lead would have on Sanna’s fans propensity to vote. And after they announced it was extremely even, laying one candidate @1.50 doesn’t really take insider info… just wish I’d been more adaptive myself here.

      That being said, there was really a huge post on offer at that time, quite something different than previously seen on that market.

  17. as far as Sanna Nielsens hopes for EV are concerned i can’t see this song flying. slow burn ballads have suffered recently at the finals as i think they are now seen as a bit old fashioned. also SN doesn’t have the same kudos she has in Sweden in the rest of europe. so far it is the best of the ballads so it can expect a high-ish finish but i wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the the top 5

  18. I can see only two types of people vote for this. Eurovision fans or Swedes. This is far too generic and formulated for the average eurovision viewer. For me this is Georgia last year. It might get a top 10 from the juries but televoters will ignore this big time. This is a lay all day.

    • Agree 100%, though I expect a better result that Georgia at this point.

      • So which country do you guys think can take it down?! Market seems to believe Norway is the easy front runner, but I need to disagree. Sure a possibility but the market has to be wrong with the price available at the moment. I’ts discouraging to hear you guys are not giving sweden a chance, as I myself feel like it’s one of the top3 contenders right now.. :/

        • Hungary is without doubt the value bet. It was 20-1 a week ago and is now 12-1. The country has no “enemies” (Romania may object to that), the song is very popular on Youtube entries already and consistently scores in the top three across a wide variety of people and countries. He performs well “live.” That is my only doubt about Carl Epsen (how very Johnny Logan is this song!)…..his vocal delivery seems more than a little ragged compared with the recording I heard. I can definitely see Norway and Hungary both in the top three. Sweden?? Top six, but it feels “formulaic” and I bit like a few others one has heard over the years.

        • Malta are sticking out to me as a seriously underrated top 5 contender at the moment.

      • Yes indeed Sweden should finish higher than Georgia last year but that’s mainly due to the lack of competition this year. For me Sweden’s range will be 8-18th, depends on running order and how strong the rest of the entries will be.

    • Undo is catchier than Waterfall but the key change is, in my opinion, lazy and unnecessary. It will probably come 8th or thereabouts.

  19. Sweden is reviewed. Actually, so is Denmark but no one has noticed!

  20. Like Gav mentions in the article we were scrambling to back Sanna,Ace,Ellen and Outrigger within minutes of the markets opening.This is a really nice ballad.The problem is thats all it is.Not a lot they can do with the staging.It is what it is.
    Sweden had the chance to send a hugely contemporary pop song but lost their nerve.Or the Germans crazy jury did.
    I dont think the Scandis can get 3 in the top 10 though even in a terrible year.Iceland saw that last year with a better ballad.
    Id lay this for top 10 if its 1.6 or below.
    Id been buying Sweden from early and wanted Helena or Ace but i sold out as soon as Sanna won.
    This cant win ESC.

  21. Voting figures from the heats are available here:

    http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melodifestivalen_2014

    Some interesting observations:

    In heat 3, dr Alban scored 37730 votes to Outtrigger’s 38586 – a 2% difference! In fact, even Ace Wilder (direct qualifier) only scored 43704. It’s safe to say that those dr Alban bets for AC @ ~6.00 and Top2 @ ~11.00 were very strong, even if the margins were not on our side this time. Ace’s qualifying numbers of course also illustrate what a grower that song apparently was (and what a shit heat she was in).

    In heat 1, Panetoz (2nd) got 57401 votes to Stenmarck’s (3rd) 51897. Not as close a call as in heat 3, but the 6% difference is still small enough to justify any bets for Stenmarck to Q or Panetoz to reach AC at odds around 3.00.

    Also in heat 1, Yohio won with 117219 votes. This was more than Sanna’s winning heat score of 109592, and corrected for total number of votes in each heat the margin was even bigger. Quite clearly, Sanna managed to gain momentum wheres Yohio’s engine sputtered after the heat.

    • What’s also interesting is how they fucked Alcazar in the final – was there ever slot 3 given to a heat 4 winner !?

  22. The DJs of the Finnish Swedish-language radio station X3M have identified another weakness with the song – it’s impossible to sing along to. (Video features both Pernilla Karlsson (Finland 2012) and Krista Siegfrids’ hen-pecked boyfriend):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYzDF7j8DR8

  23. I took the willhill offer for sweden @ 6,5 EW for a hefty’ish bet. Top4 @ 2,375 is OK especially since someone is willing to back at 1,75 in betfair. So almost getting a freerun for the win. Or might just trade away for win and let it run free on top4. We’ll see..

    • How does this EW thing work Archi. Let’s say if I were to put 30 euros on Sanna for the win @6 EW I would be charged 60 euros, then what would I get in return if she would finish 3rd?

      • It means that half of the bet (30€) is for outright win and the other half (30€) is for top4 with 1/4 odds. So if you bet at 6 EW it means that if Sanna finishes 3rd you’ll win 67,50€ (odds 2,25 if EW bet is on 6.0) for the EW bet, but lose the outright. So overall you win a little bit.
        If Sanna wins you obviously take home both bets, so you would cash 180€ for outright and 67,50€ for EW bet, making it a decent profit overall.
        If you want to make it a freebet with no risk you can do this in betfair if there is someone willing to back at right odds. The drawback of this is that you need to have quite a bit of money which you are fine keeping tied until the final is over. I hope this helped!

      • I had this nightmare when I was learning the ropes a year or two ago…

        Basically you are charged 60 Euros, but it’s actually 2 bets of 30 Euros each. One of them is to win – the other is to come 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th (some bookies only go to 3rd.)

        The bet to finish in the top 3 or 4 is set at (usually) one quarter of the odds – so one quarter of 6 is 1.5. So you’ve got a bet for Sanna to finish in the top 4 of 30 Euros at 1.5. On top of that you have a bet for Sanna to win of 30 Euros at 6.0.

        If she only comes 3rd, then only your place bet will win, so you’ll get 45 Euros. If she wins, then you’ll get your winning bet 30 Euros x 6 = 180 + 45 for the place = 225.

        If Sanna wins, you win 225 Euros.
        If Sanna comes 2nd or 3rd or 4th if the bookie allows it, you win 45 Euros, but since you spent 60, it’s a loss of 15 Euros.

        • Well you are getting it wrong. With decimals it’s not as intuitive to count the 1/4 EW odds than it is with fractions. If the decimals odds are 6.0 in fractions it’s 5/1. With decimals you need to minus 1 (basically your own bet) and then divide it by 4, so in this case 6-1=5. 5 divided by 4 = 1,25, then add 1 to it, making the odds 2,25. In fractions it’s indicate that you win 5 with bet of 1 (5/1) so in the case of fractions you divide the 5 by 4, making it 1,25. So now your fractions odds are 1,25/1. Meaning you win 1,25 when you bet 1.
          You can also think it this way: in EW bet you are supposed to win 25% compared to the outright bet, right? Now if the odds are 6.0 and you bet 10€ you would cash 60€ so profit is 50€. 25% of this profit of 50€ is 12,50€. So when you bet EW you should win 12,50€, so when you bet 10€ to win 12,50€ the odds need to be 2,25. Just check at willhill, if you try to bet 10€ outright it says ”estimated return 60€” but then when you click the EW box it says ”Estimated return 82,50€” So it’s 22,50€ more, but also your initial bet is now 20€ so the extra profit is 12,50€.

          I remember a few years back some bookies had a different way to claculate the EW bet. I dont remember exactly how it was different, but two bookies with same 1/4 1-4 EW bet gave different return. It was confusing. But this is the way it goes. If you bet 6.0 on Sanna to win EW you make small profit as long as she gets to top4.

          • I had a lay on Sweden for the win @6 and also in top 4 for same amount on betfair @1,75, then I backed Sweden at William Hill for the same amount @6 EW. Basically I am freebetting for Sweden in top 4. (amount * 2,25 – amount *1,75. Such an excellent advice Archi

        • I think we had this topic last year.
          You can’t divide decimal odds by 4, that only works for fractional odds.

          The formula for e/w calculation with decimals is:
          (odds-1)/4+1

        • Thanks for your reply Ben :). I think the actual formula is (6-1)/4 +1, basicly a quarter of the profit.

    • Iv traded out of Sweden now they have shortened and iv been laying her at 6.2 and hopefully 5.9 as well.Il run the lay unless they drift back out to 10s.
      If Sanna couldnt win a jury vote in MF i cant see her winning one in ESC and her televote wont be anything special.

  24. Could Sweden win jury vote?

    • It didn’t win with juries in melfest. Bubblegum ballads haven’t worked with juries so far, I’d say no.

      • She came second though 😀 And none of these songs are of “Busy Doing Nothin'” level. 🙂
        But yeah, probably it’s not the most jury friendly song.

  25. Finally, a contender! I have a fun bet for you guys. In two weeks time who will be the market’s favorite? You get @2,5 Norway @2,5 Armenia @3,75 Sweden @7,5 Azerbaijan @19 Russia. The stakes are invincible units made of incredible honour and great respect!

    • The contender thing was obviously supposed to go under the Armenian article just to clear that up! But the bet offer still stands 🙂

    • this is a good bet, sirmills.. i think armenia will be in the leed, sweeden second and azerbajdan the third.. im going to put 10 units on Armenia 🙂

  26. Sounds like a winning song to me

  27. I’ve had a change of heart about Undo today. It’s been pointed out by a number of people that it’s not a well crafted song (lacks a middle eight) and is just a bit bland, not to mention the very narrow victory it won in Melfest… which I maintain is only because it was Sanna singing it.

    But today I’m thinking “so what?” They obviously have some ambitious stage plans for it, and Loreen’s legacy has obviously left a big impression on Bjorkman, he’s keen to create memorable images. It’s also been revealed that Sanna will be styled to appear her own age (which I find kinda hard to imagine at the moment) and at the end of the day, it’s a simple, nice, accessible ballad. The yodelling chorus hasn’t proved an obstacle for me at any point, nor has it for any non-Eurofans I’ve showed it to, including my mother.

    I’d say yes the market are overrating it – but not by much. I think Sanna is this year’s Zlata.

    • (by which I mean it’s the song that the market gets, many of us don’t, and may just stump us by getting to 5th or 4th.)

    • These pointers you mentioned won’t affect televoters but it will affect the jury. I have gotten results from 4 music professionals (from a different age, and background) in Iceland that I asked to rate the top 10 of the market leaders. All of them had Sweden in the bottom 4, which is interesting as it is a very possible jury result from Iceland which is one of Sweden’s best friend.

      Having said that I still expect Sweden to get support from female televoters in Iceland. Sanna didn’t do well in Sweden because she is Sanna though that might have given her the extra push to win. Sanna did well because she is nice looking in a none threatening way, a middle aged woman singing about a broken heart. Women relate to her.

      • Except she’s not middle aged, she’s 29. 😛

        • Yeah Ben I know, and that’s quite funny when you think of it :). But her stage persona is middle aged, which I think is just right for her target audience. An experienced and sophisticated woman telling a story many women relate to. I don’t think it is a good idea making Sanna more sexual.

  28. I still think quite highly of undo, its a solid eurovision style ballad and in a way is the oppisite of the worrys armenia have with the unconventional structure, undo is the type that usually does well at esc, my main problem is the fact that it has very very stiff competition from the other 2 big scandy entries from norway and denmark, each song has differant strengths and are all great in there own way, its quite hard to decide which will sink and which will swim as it would be very unlikely for all 3 to do well

  29. Any news here, or is the shortening on the outright simply Sweden filling the void created by Armenia drifting?

    • Sanna was shortening slowly even before yesterday’s concert and I was also curious why. My guess was because she is winning the Bigpoll but at this moment surely filling the void as you say. Btw I see Carl’s shortening due to his more confident/less wobbly voice comparing to the national competition.

    • Id say 100% when Armenia drifts the scandi entries shorten.Its a reaction from people that if Armenia is drifting then the scandis are the likely winners.As we enter the rehearsals id expect both Sweden and Armenia to drift and quite a lot of other entries to shorten,some by big amounts.Armenia might keep getting support though around the 2.5 level on Betfair until the bookies break ranks.Iv had my nerves tested trading the outright market so far this year averaging down on drifters but its starting to really turn nicely now.

  30. This should be the Swedish staging. If Sweden use that backdrop, Sanna certainly would get my vote:

  31. Here is a recent live performance of Undo. I really can’t imagine Sweden troubling the top this year. Her performance seems pretentious and somehow too aggressive. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ-R7lq5XBM

  32. I would love to hear a version with no backing track assistance.
    Sweden’s success clearly depends on delivering a superb vocal.

    I don’t think it will win, but I think the hate towards Sanna has gone a bit too far in the betting community.
    I’m certainly not a fan of Kempe’s generic consumer goods, but at least Undo is not as schmaltzy Swede schlager like basically all other Sanna songs in the past, including the Empty Room that people seem to like for reasons which are beyond me.

    Sanna crushes the OGAE voting and I think there’s a little more to it than just the fact that it’s Sweden and that it’s Sanna.

  33. Dont think theres any worrys with the vocal shell sanna is crystal in that aspect.
    This entry is the box ticker for me likeabilty in droves, song is a proven genre in esc that works
    Has a good mix of emotion and sweetness and the vocal great too, what else ticks boxes as much as this ?

    • Was amazed to hear you Gavin, and the panel on the recent podcast contemplating the idea that Sweden may not even qualify for the final. I think this is one of those songs where a gap opens up between the “experts” and the rest…….it will fly into the final and I expect AT LEAST, a top five finish. Best odds at the moment though are UK to finish the top song of the Big Five…at 11-8.

      • Hi Mark. I think that was our first podcast and our views have mellowed a tad since. That said, I doubt many predicted Bergendahl wouldn’t qualify.

        That first semi-final is very congested and it pays to be open minded, especially when dealing with one of the favourites if you think it’s status is overrated.

        Already on UK to be top big-5 at 15/8 (2.88).

        • Gavin

          Well done you on those 15-8 odds on UK. I think Sweden 2010 paid the price for being a “plateau” song. Started OK but went nowhere. no progression and build. Several songs this year will not fulfil their potential as they don’t go through any gears…I think Italy, Azerbaijan, Israel all fall foul to this……I am not mad about “Undo”, but in a year with no obvious winner on show, I think one dismisses it at one’s peril. She is solid vocally and the song does make some shifts (annoying as those key changes can be.) The OGAE votes are a distraction.

          My big negatives are Denmark and Rumania…vapid and plastic. Soft spot for Montenegro, but I made lots of money on Lane Moje, Molitva and Nije Ljubav Stvar (2012) that I may be prone to Balkan ballad bias….!! Not betting on Balkans in 2014!

    • The box SWEDEN is not ticking at the moment is “originality”. Russia’s ‘What If’ last year was a highly competent package and scored from all over, but was only ranked 10th by juries in the final, most likely due to a lack of originality.

      • I dont want to back myself into a corner to much over sweden as its more my LEAN then cast iron winner in a open year.. but anyway to reply to you tim you only have to go back to last year emilie de forest was the more traditional safe package vs margaret bergers cool edgy exciting package, you will probably come back and say they are completely differant but both were treading the kind of safe proven path and with singers oozing likeability and ticking simular boxes at the end of the day.

        Russia 2013 was never on my radar from the word go last year it was a played out x factor winner song, dina wasnt a very exciting performer with much charisma either, i think ben summed russia 13 up very well in last years wipe with the word TRITE,

        Sanna offers more then that for me,its not totally dated i think the chorus brings a little contemporary edgyness to it and i love the way it builds before the key change going quiet with the pulsatating heart beat sounds before ramping up the power and emotion to its peak.

        As i said im trying to keep an open mind so i dont want to start nailing my colours just yet, but as it stands sanna is answering a lot more questions for me then anyone else it might not win but im pretty sure its going to right up there near the end.

  34. Iv always like Sanna and the first bet of the season was lumping on her to win MF.However people need to remember what happened in the jury voting.Ace Wilder beat her.If Sanna couldnt beat Ace in a jury vote what chance does she have winning an ESC?.
    The other problem she has from the jury side is that Dilana delivers a real ballad.The juries who want to score a ballad high will go for Dilana as its superb and not generic.

    I have to be careful with my thoughts on Sannas chances though as her beating Ace cost me a lot of winnings.

  35. I think a lot of people are probably judging sanna on not being a very clear cut winner db,
    She did pick up decent points across the board though.i think this could score pretty solidly across the board in esc too and it might be enough, the new voting system can really favour a song like this thats nearly impossible to dislike for both viewers and juries alike.

  36. Sweden suddenly charting in a bunch of countries:

    http://esctracker.com/

    Legitimate cause for concern for Sweden-layers?

    • Still only a few and remain unconcerned at this point. If the list grows to include many more countries, I might start reducing my liabilities, but still fail to see the attraction.

  37. Good spot tim.with him being alone on stage how he comes across becomes very important.
    Unless the staging looks so spectacular you forget about that.

  38. Thats a huge gamble from the delegation.It might seem very dramatic and effective him being alone but having no instrumentation is surely missing out on much of the advantage of the song.This will mean the viewer is 100% drawn to him only.Its now down to will they connect or not.I can understand why they have taken this huge risk,but thats just what it is,hugely risky.

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