Home / Eurovision Tips / Melodifestivalen: Heat 3 Snippets & Odds

Melodifestivalen: Heat 3 Snippets & Odds

It’s heat 3 and we’ll be watching this from a pub in London, so don’t expect out usual fast turnaround in publishing the result!

Snippets will be added once they become available.

1. Outtrigger – Echo


Rewind to last Eurovision and you’ll remember Outrigger for their brilliant rock version of Robin Stjerberg’s You.  Well the writers of You, Joy & Linnéa Deb, have joined forces with Anton Malmberg Hård Af Segerstad (Begging) and produced a hook-laden hard-rock hit. Is Echo too heavy for Melfest? The Swedish blogging core seem impressed and most have tipped Outtrigger to qualify direct.  If you think going first in the running order might hamper Outtrigger’s qualification chances, then 2/1 for andra chansen is good value.

 Bet on Outtrigger to qualify to final @ 1.95 (we tipped 4.33)

 Bet on Outtrigger to proceed to andra chansen @2.85 

 Bet on Outrigger to win @ 36.0 (we tipped 100)

2. Eko – Red

EKO progressed from Om Svensktoppen nästa 2013 (in the Swedish charts next).  Will this electronic 80s, Kim Wilde influenced track attract a flood of nostalgic votes, or will a 90s Dr Alban hog the retro vote?

 Bet on EKO to qualify to final @ 20.0

 Bet on EKO to proceed to andra chansen @ 11.0

3. Oscar Zia – Yes We Can

Writer Kempe is on Oscar’s writing team, but will also provide backing vocals for the 17 year old. Yes We Can is a cross between Backstreet Boys, N’Sync and Britney Spears, which should appeal to reminiscing middle-aged women.  Yes We Can also features a Saucedo-like dance break that will add a more contemporary edge to the track.  As mentioned in our preview podcast, Oscar stands out in this heat and he should corner the youth vote.  If, as expected, he progresses to the final, he’ll prove to be a huge thorn in Anton Ewald’s side!

 Bet on Oscar Zia to qualify to final @ 1.72

 Bet on Oscar Zia to proceed to andra chansen @ 3.3

4. Shirley Clamp – Burning Alive


Shirley has competed at Melodifestivalen five times and has reached the final twice, one of those via the andra chansen.  The bloggers were generally negative about Burning Alive and feel it doesn’t grow enough.  Shirley is a popular character, so shouldn’t be discounted against the weaker competition in this heat.  Andra chansen may be on the cards.

 Bet on Shirley Clamp to qualify to final @ 12.0

 Bet on Shirley Clamp to proceed to andra chansen @ 6.5

5. State of Drama – All We Are


I expected State of Drama to give us Falling mark II, but All We Are is a highly effective piece of One Direction pop with U2 Beautiful Day overtones.  Last year, State of Drama shocked.  I’m very concerned they might shock again, as there’s something very likable about these guys.  Not to be underestimated!

 Bet on State of Drama to qualify to final @ 4.0

 Bet on State of Drama to proceed to andra chansen @ 2.45

6. Cajsa Stina Åkerström – En Enkel Sång


Cajsa might provide the Caroline af Ugglas moment of reflection in this heat, so should figure in the top-4.  I reckon andra chansen is more feasible, but given that En Enkel Sång is performed in Swedish, it might encourage plenty of support from the traditionalists.

 Bet on Cajsa Stina Åkerström to qualify to final @ 4.5

 Bet on Cajsa Stina Åkerström to proceed to andra chansen 3.25

7. Ace Wilder- Busy Doin’ Nothin’


The third song from Joy & Linnéa Deb, and once again they deliver a song with lots of layers.  There are bits of Avicii’s Hey Brother in what is a great pop/club crossover track. Confident female performers tend to be dismissed at Melfest and Ace is as cocky as they get!  Busy Doin’ Nothin’ has a lively stage show, so it’ll be interesting to see how Ace’s vocal holds up.

 Bet on Ace Wilder to qualify to final @ 5.0

 Bet on Ace Wilder to proceed to andra chansen @ 2.4

8. Dr Alban ft. Jessica Folcker


90s 90s 90s. What else?! The odds of 8.0+ to qualify say it all.

 Bet on Dr Alban ft. Jessica Folcker to qualify to final @ 15.0

 Bet on Dr Alban ft. Jessica Folcker to proceed to andra chansen @ 5.5

The four acts in the mix for qualification are Outtrigger, Oscar Zia, Ace Wilder and Cajsa Stina Åkerström.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see State of Drama replace one of those ladies.

Who do you think will do well in heat 2?

 

Make sure you follow the ESCtips FaceBook & Twitter accounts!


 

 

About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

90 comments

  1. Ok, question:
    Where did Dr. Alban get the lobotomy and how much did it cost?

  2. zia and outrigger by the looks of it… however neither of them will win the competition (egg on the face if they do of course).

  3. This is one dreadful heat if ever I saw one. The 4 songs in andra chansen at the moment are better than all songs in this heat. Will be staying away from this heat betting and possibly viewing wise . I Agree with rob none of these songs will win melfest.

  4. Placed the following bets:

    2pt Oscar Zia to Q @1.67 (WillHill)
    1pt Alban to beat EK @1.46 (SvS)
    1pt Shirley C to beat Ace W @3.50 (SvS)
    1pt Alban to Q @12.50 (SvS)
    1pt Alban to AC @6.25 (SvS)

    As you can see I’m betting on the Ranelid-effect for Mr Alban. Really hard to tell whether it will materialize, but I’d say it’s much more likely than 1 in 12, esp in a shit heat like this that almost even makes me pick up the phone to protest-vote. Also, his clip on SVT.se has most fb likes of all (though when Tweets are counted too, Zia leads), despite having been online considerably shorter than the first four songs.

  5. Haha great minds squall:-D i just backed dr alban to make ac@5.5 and backed it up with direct 15.0 the pimp slot has only failed to hit top four five times out of the last 18 and even then 6th place was the worst result, dr albans song comes across kinda funny but i think the melody is ok and with the timed pyros near the end comes across quite effectively.
    I also took oscar like you but at 2.0 not sure if i will let it ride but its looking value.
    And have outrigger zia combo at 3.25

  6. You guys clearly have gone mad. i love it. or should I say…

    YES JESSICA !

    Dr.Alban’s railway epress to Valuetown, count me in, choo choo.

  7. I thought I was mad thinking Shirley is The value for AC but you guys are totally bonkers 🙂

  8. Iv gone mad on your side of the fence Boki.I think Shirley could be great AC value and had a sniff at the 6.5s on offer.
    This heat could go lots of ways.

    • To be honest I can’t place much on these AC markets due to bookie restrictions, so I have a single figure bet @6.5 just for fun. There is much more freedom for top2 of course but have no confidence in this heat yet.

  9. Wow, Dr Alban’s odds to Q halved now on SvS!

    Also Shirley C to beat Ace W down to 2.30 from 3.50.

    I don’t really see Alban crushing the polls tonight though, that would be Oscar’s job…

  10. I can’t get any money on. It’s very frustrating. Hills limiting me to £2.50 along with Betsson and Unibet.

    The general consensus is that the top5 will be Outtrigger, Oscar, SOD, Cajsa & Dr Alban. I don’t think anyone has called any one act a certain qualifier, though I’ve read one blogger suggesting that Outtrigger are too good not to qualify.

  11. Right, managed to get some 10s at Ladbrokes. I’d rather Oscar and Dr Alban qualify now from a betting position.

  12. Betsson limited me to 14 pound on the whole andra chansen market, last time im bothering with them,
    Looks like the Dr alban train is gathering momentum 🙂

  13. The word from Tobbe Ek having asked him about momentum for Dr Alban:

    “No not really. He needs to be fun, and have fun onstage to get the vote. Wont go further than andra chansen maximum”

  14. ||||||||||||||||||||| Oscar Zia 41% 278
    |||||||| State of Drama 15% 102
    |||||| Outtrigger 12% 83
    ||||| Shirley Clamp 10% 67
    |||| Dr Alban & Jessica Folcker 8% 53
    |||| Ace Wilder 8% 52
    ||| CajsaStina Åkerström 6% 40
    | EKO 1% 10
    Totalt 100% 685

  15. Odds

    Latest odds from Sweden.

  16. Well the Oscar bet looks good, but no big surprise he would own the vote (as commented above): the audience is really kid-heavy.

    Behind him it still looks pretty wide open! Fingers crossed for mr Alban 🙂

    I’m a bit worried about the Shirley vs Ace Wilder H2H… should I be? I mean, she got to perform twice. On the other hand, it was at 3.50 odds, so I guess an even situation is still value 🙂

  17. Btw, Betway just let me have 400€ for Oscar to Q @1.50. Think they never took the market down. Also still have Alban @9.00, for anyone interested.

  18. I’ve listened to the full versions (2:30) of the songs and think the most appropriate response is to quote Marlon Brando’s character in Coppola’s Apocalypse Now:

    I will try to collect myself and get back with actual analysis, hopefully..

    • 1. Outrigger -This one does nothing for me. Very little of a song here to work with. They should get back to making cover versions of Katy Perry tunes or whatever it is they did before. I also don’t buy into the whole ‘look how aggressive and rebellious we are’ act while submitting themselves to melfest, the epitome of consumer culture and formulaic plastic pop.

      2. EKO – The only song that offers traces of originality and current sound. This should definitely make the final… oh wait, this is Sweden here right? Ok, 8th place. Next…

      3. Oscar Zia – Disjointed mess. We, as a society, really have to come up with solutions how to deal with the people responsible for this. This will be sent to Stockholm obviously, proving that Sweden is a lost cause.

      4. Shirley Clamp – The 1minute preview was something I could tolerate, heard it thousands of times before of course, but didn’t bother me, but wow, the full version really turns into full schlager mode of the worst kind. I would say let’s pray this doesn’t reach AC but on the other hand there are no alternatives really.

      5. State of Drama – I can not believe how simple and monotonous this song is. Does it have more than three notes? I dont think it has. I think a three-year old has composed this song by accident on a fisher price toy.

      6. CajsaStina – I tried really really hard to like this, but no, sorry. next…

      7. Ace Wilder – She has understood what this festival is all about. Music by assholes for assholes.

      8. Dr. Alban – This has many layers of meta levels. Is he trolling us? Are we trolling him? Is he really a doctor? Major breach of Hippocratic Oath here.” ooaar yes jessicaaa”

  19. You are being too negative. 🙁 Change Yourself.

  20. Some last minute bets: traded out of a part of the Zia position @1.31 with Betfair, don’t think he’s worth those odds. Also hedged with Zia 2nd chance @6.00 with Unibet (though now I’ll cry should he be 5th or worse. Not that I think that will happen).

    Also took a small last minute Outtrigger to Q @3.00 with Unibet. That’s quite a bit more realistic than the under evens we’ve been seeing the last couple of days. Not convinced they’ll Q, but somebody’s gotta take the second slot, right? Even less convinced about SoD.

    Also interesting that while Outtrigger were @3.00 to Q, the combo Zia/Outtrigger was also @3.00. That’s what I call faith in Zia.

    • Yeah, not blown away by Zia. Happy I hedged some.

      Found Shirley Clamp competent! Not very visually appealing, but should speak to traditionalists. Feel good both about high-odds AC bet and H2H bet vs Ace Wilder.

      • I’m watching this heat and found Shirley better than many others, would put some for AC in-running if possible. And she is 6th?! Good call for the Dr. , I hope for you guys he gets into AC.

  21. Lol, Squall, I just came here to write that Shirley Clamp was very good. I still prefer that other lady that sung in Swedish though.

  22. Would be incredibly ironic if I for the second week in a row tipped a surprise AC (Shirley this week, Patenoz last), that then turned out to be an even more surprise Q 🙂

    Btw, Alban was pretty painful tbh… so amateurish. Will take some serious irony votes for a Q, still keeping my fingers crossed for AC though!

  23. I wish you the best of luck with your bets but ugh I hated Alban 😀 He doesn’t deserve going to AC, but I wish he goes because of you 😀

    • Haha thanks 🙂 just wish he hadn’t looked like he’d sniffed glue when he proceeded to top 5… didn’t really improve his chances 🙁

      But surely Ace can’t come better than 5th?

  24. ace wilder yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss)

  25. Oh jesus christ! I’m dumbfounded. Ok, officially completely lost 😀

  26. I think the result tonight was quite as it should be. I noticed that in peoples opinion on Facebook that Ace Wilder was liked in general.

    But none of these songs will get that far in the final.

  27. That’s the third week this show has kicked me in the balls. Not a complete wipeout as I got State of Drama to Andra Chansen, but overall lost half of what I put down. I will not be touching MF again with a barge pole.

  28. Hahaha, sorry Squall 😀
    Nevertheless, I am super happy for Ace. I actually really likes the song and (suuuuuuper professional opinion alert) I find her very attractive 😀
    I somehow found it more believable that Ace will go to the finals over Alban at those last seconds before the result. Alban going straight to the final felt more unbelievable.

    • Haha no worries Ruud 🙂 in the end, I somehow got away with just a 2pt loss, which I’m quite thankful for considering how wrong I got this. Was really optimistic with Alban vs Ace in the end, but alas 🙂

      Also, was happy to the point of being smug for my 3.50 odds bet on Shirley H2H Ace!! Not really close to land, was it?

  29. The crazy thing is I backed Ace STF large wanting to dutch it with AC but unibet would only give me £2 on AC so I couldn’t dutch it and had to let the STF run at 9s.A bit shocked but a very happy shock.

    • Would be VERY happy to learn about your reasoning there 😀

      I was almost sure she wouldn’t make the top5…

      • I just thought she was probably the most contemporary artist in the heat and probably MF.Hugely talented.My only worry was,well two worries,first I hadn’t seen her live so I didn’t know if she had a good enough live vocal and 2nd was her in your face style right for MF.
        I intended to dutch the STF bet with AC,it was only because I couldn’t get any down on AC that I ended up with a heavy STF.Plus if id tried to get the AC down first and hadn’t been able to id of only had a small STF bet,so some luck involved.

  30. Well… the diggity doc bandwagon was fun while it lasted.
    When only him and Ace were left it was for 20 seconds like heaven.

    Historical evidence was so clearly pointing against cocky female performers here, this is stunning.

  31. Long time lurker here. Seemed a bit odd to me how SVT had such a long break before Ace, especially since voting for all eight songs was allowed from the start.. makes me wonder if it was very close between a few songs and whether there was, even for a brief period, some sort of Alban bandwagon?

    • Welcome to esctips, schronker, or should I say thanks for finally leaving a comment? 🙂
      I recognised the long break before Ace’s performance also, but I don’t think that had that much influence on the result. I think we have to admit to ourselves that Ace brought a coolness to the stage that we underestimated (or I did, at least) and she managed to achieve something other female performers were unable to achieve before her. Selling an authentic “I don’t give a ****” attitude. What do you expect from Ace in the final? Will she surprise once again?

      • I think that puts it perfect shell and really sums up Ace last night.Her live version of Do It shows her talent but, the question was would/could she transfer it to MF.She did and was hugely contemporary but with a lovely edge.I backed her for the final at 80s,but il trade out of most of it.
        My 2nd favourite song of the night was Red although i didnt have any cash on them.They were last.It seems MF is getting more and more polarized towards young teens with unlimited text phone contracts.

  32. glad I stopped out of this one. final is looking like a yahoo walk over at the momentarily

  33. Y o h I o .I meant

    • Interesting that you say that considering Sanna Nielsen is trading below evens.

      • its just that i don’t rate the sanna nielson song very highly. it’s pretty much a standard ballad albeit sung excellently. yohio qualified from first with an upbeat modern pop song which is bound to attract the young multi voters. also it’s likely to go from a better position in the final – possibly pimp slot as the producers look for a suitable climax. of course there may be something very good in the last heat and the international jury can also put a spanner in the works, but it’s looking at best like a two horse race and i think the bookies have the favourite wrong.

  34. Every damn week one comes along to ruin the party, when the final 5 was announced with dr alban still there with ace and the rest i was counting my money :).
    So close to landing the juicy ac odds on the doc,and usually a fierce female with prison chereography wouldnt stop this,you could also think she would have been competing with oscar for young vote.
    Anyone else think her chorus is heavily inspired by this ciara song? Im surprised it wasnt turned into a twerk fest 🙂

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vD6qaYFVUng&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DvD6qaYFVUng

  35. I wonder what the old people did last night. CajsaStina finishing 7th, Shirley 6th,

    • They had the bottom 4 acts to split their votes between and id assume the older demographic is probably only 20% of the votes cast compared to the younger voting demographic.
      The bottom 4 acts didnt have much to stand out from each other so the votes were probably spread thin from a small voting demographic.

      The big difference is Sanna had the quality and the song to unite that demographic.There is a big lesson there.If the older demographic has 3 or 4 to go for and none of them really stand out,avoid at all costs.

      I think the younger demographic was voting twice,for Oscar and Ace and Ace will of also picked up votes from people who probably dont often vote.

      • Grandmas vote for Dr. Alban is what you’re saying? not sure if serious 🙂

      • There is no big lesson here imo. Avoiding entries that cancel each other out is common knowledge.

        Shirley had the traditional cheesy Schlager niche for herself. CajsaStina had the traditional serious ballad niche for herself.
        In fact they couldn’t have hoped for a better lineup really.

        • CajsaStina stood where Songbird was performed and delivered something about 3% as good.ie terrible.Voters had seen how its supposed to be done by Ellen and wanted none of a 5th rate attempt.Dr Alban was dated and lets face it shockingly bad.It was appealing to the 90s demographic but wasnt good enough,no youngster would give it a second thought.Im shocked it managed 5th but it did have pimp slot.
          The older demographic was split between them,but in low numbers because of the quality.
          Shirley,CajsaStina and EKO were fishing in the same pool whatever their genre.Demographics dont just have 1 genre.

  36. Everyone who likes 90s music is a grandma in my eyes.

  37. Last night’s voting figure were down to 258,000, which is the lowest since 2002 [speculation]. I imagine the result was very tight for places 2-5 with Oscar miles ahead.

  38. I think the best act for the tradionalists is in heat 4.Ellinore Holmer.It looks like a love song but about longing,but with a hopeful vibe.I really like her stage craft and although again probably not the usual MF staple iv backed her STF at 15s and AC at 8s for small stakes.That will be my only bet in the heat and probably last bet in MF this year unless something stands out in the final i have no cover on.

  39. So what does this say about the Outright Win market?

    I’d argue Oscar has very slim chances: his audience is far too skewed towards the kids. You need to capture also older voters to have a realistic chance; Anton should do far better there. Also, Oscar’s singing is pretty dreadful, which should alienate at least some of the jury members.

    Speaking of Anton, in one way this was a real blow to him – he’ll have to split the kid vote with Oscar. On the other hand, a fail from Oscar’s side would have been a pretty bad omen for Anton imo, so it was a bit of a lose-lose situation.

    For Sanna, you could argue that the poor showing of traditional songs like Shirley Clamp speaks to her disadvantage. Granted, she was always a lot more popular than Shirley, and her song is more contemporary, but still – if the younger pop-vote is growing in relative strength, is Sanna’s huge favoriteship really warranted?

    • Last year you had YOHIO, Anton, Lindgren, Munther, and maybe Banan, all appealing to the young demographic. OK, YOHIO and Anton were the main cheerleaders for that group, but I predict a similar scenario being played out again this year…

      YOHIO, Anton, Oscar all fighting for the same voters: YOHIO’s support will be loyal, but I doubt he’ll have garnered many more fans. Whereas Anton’s televote will be significantly boosted, as last year he was still a new artist. His voting figures should be up there with Saucedo. Oscar will likely lose out, finishing 5th or worse.

  40. At this stage, I’m inclined to think the winner is either in heat 4, hiding in second chance, or is Sanna.

    • I’m not completely ruling out YOHIO, I am however ruling out the Andra Chansen entries. Why would anyone of them win? Imo, it takes some exceptional circumstances for that to happen, given that they’ve already been beat by two entries.

      • Well it happened last year.

        • That’s true of course, but then again I’d also argue that that was as close to the perfect AC-storm you can possibly come:

          1. Extremely jury-friendly song (see Eurovision results) let it overcome a far-behind second place in televoting.
          2. “You” was very much a grower, judging by vote figures. Thus it earned from the drawn-out process.
          3. Poor performing position in original heat, good one in the finals.

          So far, I don’t see any song in this year’s AC ticking these boxes.

  41. I can still make an argument for Helena winning from AC, but with Sanna in the final, it’s incredibly difficult. If Christer thinks it’s doable, expect to see Greece and Cyprus represented in the international juries.

    It would be awful if YOHIO won, though from a financial point of view, I reckon he’d prove to be a great lay.

    • Why would Yohio win over juries this year compared to last year? Also, I think if Greece and Cyprus were represented in the international juries, the Swedish public would see through it a bit.

      • I personally think YOHIO’s song this year is much more jury-friendly than last year’s. In addition to that, he sings better. Also, he’s somewhat toned down the edgy presentation – question if whether he toned it down enough.

        All in all, I remain uncertain about YOHIO’s jury prospects this year, although it would surprise me greatly if he didn’t beat last year’s 33 points. Second question: how much of his televote support will he have retained? Surely not all…

    • What would be the argument for Helena winning from AC? I’m sincerely interested, since I’ve laid her heavily 🙂

      • I’m thinking of the Swedish mentality switching from Melfest to Eurovision and considering that they may have let a great song slip through their fingers. I haven’t seen any magazine articles berating the Swedish audience, so I can’t claim this to be fact. I just reckon that Helena will/should stand out in AC and potentially go into the final with some momentum behind her. Once in the final, Helena would likely top the jury vote. It’s the televote that requires a miracle!

        • Agree with Gav on this.Helena would probably walk the jury vote and is still the best ESC song left in MF.From a betting point i could do with her getting out of AC to lay off some of my outright bet, but until she doesnt make the final shes still a very serious threat in this competition.
          There are some great songs already in the final but not great ESC songs.Helena has a great ESC song.Does that matter to the Swedes?.Wel find out in the AC.

          • That’s really the question, whether that matters to the Swedes. My guess is not that much (I think they view MF as it’s own competition, rather than a qualifier), but it’s hard to know for sure, of course.

          • I think you can make a case that Swedes vote in the final with Eurovision in mind. In 2013 Ravaillacz and Sean Banan had less votes in the final than in their semis, both Swedish and not really Eurovision-friendly I suppose while most of the English popsongs saw increase in votes. (so I think Swedes view MF as it’s own competition but only in the semis, not in the final)

  42. Squall’s right there – last year the Melodifestivalen final had better viewing figures than the Eurovision final, which is often the case.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Close
Show Us Some Love ♡
Please Like & Follow ESCtips.com
Social PopUP by SumoMe