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Eurovision 2013: Our Record

There have been one or two casual readers who have just dipped into our coverage of Eurovision 2013 and selected random bets from the many we tipped throughout the pre-selection season, semi-finals and final. Evidently, the bets they chose were losers, hence airing their views across various internet mediums.

Betting on Eurovision is about building a portfolio of investments at decent odds. When we tip a bet, it is based on our opinion of the facts presented before us. That opinion may change if other songs improve over the course of the contest.

In Malmö, I reported live on the rehearsals; sometimes commenting more than once during a single rehearsal. Some people reacted to the first comment, whereas others would wait until the last piece of information before committing their funds. It is down to you how you interpret the information and whether you react by placing a bet or not. The service provided by this website and others is free of charge, yet the same level of detailed information in horse racing would cost a small fortune. Not every tip will be a winner, but at least we’re there gallantly sifting through the value and bravely staking our reputation on the result – not everyone does that!

Here’s just a small sample of our standout tips from the 2012 season:

Melodifestivalen:

State of Drama to qualify for final – 13.0
Ralf Gyllenhammar to qualify for final – 3.5
Munther/Ralf qualification double – 3.75
YOHIO to qualify for final – 4.5
Ewald/Stjernberg to qualify to final – 6.5
Ewald to qualify to final – 4.8
Stjernberg to win Melodifestivalen – 50.0
Stjernberg to win jury vote – 15.0

Eesti Laul:

Was brilliantly researched by author Substantshell and a number of combination bets were published for NordicBet amounting to odds of 7.0+

Our frequent commentator, DurhamBorn tipped the winner, Birgit Õigemeel at odds of over 10.0!

Dansk Melodi Grand Prix

Emmelie de Forest to win – 5.0

Norway Melodi Grand Prix

Margaret Berger to win – 2.1

Uuden Musiikin Kilpailu

Author ScandieAndy highlighted Krista Siegfrids as the likely winner after consulting his in depth knowledge of all things Scandinavian.  Her odds were as high as 6.0.

Eurovision Semi Final 1

Austria not to qualify – 2.4
Belgium to qualify – 3.5 (tipped during jury rehearsal)

Eurovision Semi-Final 2

San Marino not to qualify – 3.5

Eurovision Final

Denmark to win – 21.0
Ukraine to win e/w – 19.0
Azerbaijan to win e/w – 41.0 (tipped once stage show was unveiled)
Greece top-10 – 2.3
Hungary top-10 – 9.0
Hungary handicap win – 17.0

Eurovision was difficult to call this year due to a number of factors.  The running order and new scoring system moved the goalposts yet again, but with one year’s data, we can now go into 2014 in a more confident position.

Our coverage exists of a series of articles publishing opinion with odds, in addition to our comments section.  We also run a chat room with live blog during the two weeks of rehearsals and produce a series of pod casts where we invite guests to share their opinions.  Going forward, we will try and add live video streaming so you can listen to rehearsals coverage live from the venue.

Any website and coverage ideas would be greatly appreciated.  Please suggest them in the comments section below, in addition to any standout tips I may have missed.

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor
 
I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

3 comments

  1. Im a little older than most (even ScandiAndy) and I can remember Marie Myriam – The bird and the child winning Eurovision so I have followed it for a long time and backed on it probably longer than most.The coverage and bets put up this year on here were outstanding.Its just such a shame the old site was lost.Yes some bets went down,lots even.That though matters nothing in the big picture.Myself I was very strong on Serbia and it was a terrible call.However that’s 1 point lost.I also said Denmark was as near a certainty as iv seen at 21s and Birgit was outstanding at 10s+ to win Eesti Laul.In fact I used that conviction along with Gavsters and Substantshells analysis of the Eesti Laul to also have 12 large match bets on it.I of course had Birgit in many but used Gavsters and shells thoughts in lots of the others.I landed the win to big stakes and EVERY match bet.Noridbets odds compiler got slaughtered.

    We also agreed on Natalie Kelly winning selection for Austria as a great bet against the short priced favourite at 4s.
    ScandiAndy was superb on the Finnish selection show.
    Myself and pimpin4rizeal followed the San Remo (Italian music is a soft spot for me) and had great success with pimp nailing Marco Mengoni as superb value around 5s to win .
    I tipped up Heilsarmee to get the Switzerland selection out of 270+ entries.
    Hungary I hated on selection but like Gavster changed tack as soon as I saw it work so wonderfully on stage and backed it heavily for top 10 and also followed Gavs advice and had a lovely bet on it on the handicap at 17s.
    Many people were urging people to back Georgia while I said it was complete rubbish and had no chance at all of beating Denmark or even being a challenger and I took a very large amount of lays on the top 4 and top 10 betfair market.
    I took four figure lays on Armenia top 10,Georgia top 4 and top 10.Also at the last minute we managed to get some match bets from the bookies and advised people lump on France v Spain at 1.9 and Romania v Belarus at 1.8.
    Taking Eurovision itself this year was the 2nd most profitable iv ever had.Taking in the selection shows as well it was my most profitable.(in %s and absolute returns)
    Id put my record this year up against anyone anywhere.Winning on Eurovision is about percentages.Get value and finish in front.I was 99% certain from 20 seconds into hearing Only Teardrops shed win easily and 21s was a ridiculous price..I still backed Ukraine ew,Norway ew ,Russia ew ,Belarus ew,Azer ew and Italy ew.Still a massive return on the win market.
    This year in many ways was tough,BUT it also provided some huge prices and some superb bets.It also provided the data and thoughts needed for next year.With that im convinced people who follow this site and/or contribute will win big next year.
    Id also urge people to visit the site on a regular basis and comment, as once the selection shows start there will be some great bets to be had.

  2. Maybe a page dedicated to people who want to have a flutter on ESC and the selection shows and say start with a £100 bank this/next year?.

    Bets could be advised on this page right through the competition from the starting £100 bank.

    This would help the more casual punter enjoy the whole run and hopefully end the season with more than the starting £100 bank.

    For instance this year in the Danish selection its certain a £5 bet would be advised on Emmelie de Forest and once she had won a bet would of been advised on her to win ESC,perhaps again £5 or £10.Gav would of been certain to advise Stjernberg to win the jury vote in MF perhaps £3 at 15s,i would of tipped up Birgit to win Eesti again perhaps £3 from the bank.

    Perhaps there could be debate in the comments section as ever and Gav then tips up the advised bets.There were some amazing tips this year on here from all regulars but for the casual punter easy to miss.A dedicated page with a starting bank as a stand alone feature could really help people who would like to enjoy a bet throughout the season,not break the bank and hopefully end up in profit.It wouldn’t take away from the normal advised bets and trades etc but would be a simple landing page for people who didn’t want to cover as many angles as many of us,or bet in the scale we do,but who would enjoy a straight forward page advising bets from a starting bank.

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