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Eurovision Final Best Value Bets!

With less than 24 hours to go until the Eurovision 2013 final, it’s time to dissect each song and present the best 26 bets out there. Make sure you have an account with all of the bookmakers, that way you can take advantage of some tasty free bets and lock in the best Eurovision odds and tips. Click here the relevant bookie links to signup and place bets.

So here goes…

France: – Amandine Bourgeous – L’Enfer Et Moi

Being first in the running order is no easy task, especially when you’re being advised to rest your voice.  Amandine’s voice was much improved during the jury rehearsal, yet the French singer may still fail to score the points she needs so badly.  I don’t think last place is on the cards, though I do believe 17th-20th to be an accurate range after singing from 1st.  Of course, if her vocals return to their finest for the final, she could easily improve on that placing.

BEST BET: France vs Spain – 2.88 @ SportingBet

Lithuania: Andrius Pojarvis – Something

We seriously underestimated Andrius’ sex appeal, even though we had him tipped as a molester.  The Lithuanian Ian Curtis has come of age and I can now see this performing better than expected.  C’mon, it has to!  How else did it get out of it’s semi-final.  the Lithuanian representative is certainly more memorable than his fellow Baltic challenger from Estonia!

BEST BET:  Lithuania Best Baltic – 2.88

Moldova: Aliona Moon – O’Mie

I don’t think spitting the dummy over SVT’s stage management skills was an ideal way to increase one’s chances of a favourable draw. Moldova may have had their wrist slapped, yet all is not lost.  In a field of dirge, Aliona’s dress trick will at least remain memorable.

BEST BET Moldova Top-10 2.75

Finland: Krista Siegrids – Marry Me

Say what you like about the kiss, Marry Me is an electrifying 3 minutes of imaginative choreography and punchy lyrics.  Finland will go big in the arena, in addition to western-leaning nations.  The message will chime with all recently engaged/married couples too.

BEST BET:  Finland vs Sweden 2.25

Spain: El Sueño de Morfeo – Contigo Hasta el Final

Despite hopes for a Cranberrys-on-Acid style of song from ESDM, we were left with a mundane composition lacking sufficient vitamins to challenge for a respectable position.  Spain have form for late-twenty-finishes, so one can’t discount last place!

BEST BET  Spain Last Place – 3.0

Belgium: Roberto Bellarosa – Love Kills

Following his qualification, Roberto seems filled with confidence and now makes even more gestures to the camera; in addition to throwing in a few smiles along the way.  Love Kills won’t be scoring high marks and the bird-mating-choreography does lesson its impact.

BEST BET  Belgium Last Place – 13.0

Estonia: Birgit – Et uus Saaks Alguse

Birgit was another surprise qualifier from semi-final 1 and there’s a feeling it was heavily assisted by the juries.  Singing from 7th in the running order makes Et uus Saaks Alguse one of the more forgettable ballad packages.  In fact, there’s only 10 seconds of Birgit’s song that sounds relevant or memorable.

BEST BET  Estonia Last Place – 17.0

Belarus: Alyona Lanskaya – Solayoh

Solayoh came across as being rather flat during the jury rehearsal and it struggles to standout in the same manner as Finland.  The muted brown and orange stage does little to liven up proceeding either.  Belarus have a poor qualification record – and once qualified – they tend to bomb!

BEST BET  Belarus Last Place – 11.0

Malta: Gianluca Bezzina – Tomorrow

Gianluca continues to improve.  Having suffered timing issues in rehearsals, it was reassuring to see him deliver his best performance in front of the juries.  Nevertheless, I cannot see Tomorrow being a vote magnet.  Since 2003, Malta have failed to qualify four times.  In those years where qualification was attained, they finished 24th, 22nd and 21st.

BEST BET Malta vs Belgium 1.5 @ SportingBet

Russia: Dina Garipova – What If

Dina also saved her best for the juries.  She was visibly nervous during the opening verse, yet recovered strongly and also found time to smile.  Russia have five top-10 finishes to their name over the last decade, though in a field of strong ballads, will Russia just miss out on the top-10?

BEST BET  Russia 11th or worse – 4.25

Germany: Cascada – Glorious

The first time Natalie rehearsed, the watching press were astounded at how strong a contender Germany were.  Having being mired in plagiarism claims, Glorious was actually sounding very different to last year’s winner.  Since then, Natalie has struggled to hit the notes, though yesterday she delivered a competent performance.  In short, she didn’t do any damage.  Cascada is expected to perform stronger in the televote.

BEST BET  Germany Top Big-5 – 2.88

Armenia: Gor Sujyan – Lonely Planet

Lonely Planet sounds like a charity hit.  I have previously compared to Michael Jackson’s We Are The World, so we shouldn’t hold any expectations for a high finish for what is a dreadfully dull rock song.

BEST BET Romania vs Armenia @ SportingBet – 2.38

The Netherlands: Anouk – Birds

Birds is this year’s Follia d’amore or Suus; a song that will perform tremendously well on the jury tally and should lock in a certain top-10 finish.  A welcome return to form for the Dutch!

BEST BET  Netherlands Top Western Europe – 2.55

Romania: Cezar – It’s My Life

Achieving qualification was the peak of Cezar’s powers with his song, It’s my Life!  I am anticipating a low finish despite the song’s distinctive qualities.  Just because it’s Romania doesn’t mean they will secure a top-10 finish.  In fact, over the last five years, Romania have achieved just one top-10 finish.  Novelty is never a genre to take on, especially in the final when jurors will tend to favour more traditional and commercially viable songs.

BEST BET – None Advised.

United Kingdom: Bonnie Tyler – Believe in Me

Bonnie wasn’t at her best during last night’s jury rehearsal and appeared to lose he composure during the opening and finale.  Having previous suggested that Bonnie could achieve a 13th-17th placed finish, I will now suggest 15th-20th.  The running order and Bonnie’s enduring popularity should see her clear the bottom five… I hope!

BEST BET –  UK Finishing Position 13th-20th – 2.0

Sweden: Robin Stjernerg – You

You is an excellent, modern pop song.  However, it’s a shame Robin’s stage show was given the hatchet-job by SVT who have made it blatently clear the don’t wish to win again.  Robin was visibly deflated in yesterday’s press conference and his body language suggested he was merely going through the motions for show boss, Christer (Fister) Björkman!

BEST BET  Finland vs Sweden 2.25

Hungary: ByeAlex – Kedvesem

There appears to be an underground following for Kedvesem.  It’s down tempo trip-hop genre is addictive, though it’s a shame Alex doesn’t sell it better on screen.  There is a sense that Kedvesem could surprise given its bright staging and niche sound.

BEST BET  Hungary Top-10 – 8.0

Denmark: Emmelie de Forest – Only Teardrops

Reports from inside the Danish camp are that they only gave it 90% during the jury rehearsal.  Despite that, Denmark rightly remain the favourites when you compare it against other songs and their TV impression.  Everything about the Danish stage production screams winner, especially when the ticker-tape and golden sparks shower burst into life.  The value betting angle would be to oppose the Danish win or bet in play, when odds will likely drift before being backed in.

BEST BET No Value. Bet In Play @ 

Iceland: Eythor Ingi Gunnlaugsson- Ég á líf

There are growing expectations in the press center suggesting Iceland as a potential long-odds springer.  Eythor’s performance is wonderfully intimate, yet epic in equal measure.  It has the feeling of Yohanna from 2009; a beautifully delivered ballad that builds into a stunning climax.  Yohanna’s ballad was in English though.  I’m expecting a strong jury score for Eythor, as his performance was equal to, if not better than Anouk’s.

BEST BET  Iceland Top-10 4.5 &  Iceland Win e/w 4 places – 151.0

Azerbaijan: Farid Mammadov – Hold Me

With a very polished stage show, Azerbaijan should be pushing for a high top-10 or possible placed finish.  There have been concerns regarding Farid’s vocal and last night those concerns resurfaced.  If Azerbaijan are victorious, it’ll be a repeat of their by default win in 2011.  Nevertheless, in 2011, Azerbaijan came second in the jury vote. This year I’m expecting a lower jury points tally.  What’s more, being sandwiched between the better Icelandic and more exciting Greek entry will add to Azerbaijan’s woes.

BEST BET  Azerbaijan Win e/w 4 places – 12.0

Greece: Koza Mostra – Alcohol is Free

The Koza Mostra boys, assisted by Agathon Iakovidis, put a spanner in the works being this late in the running order.  Their lively party song will resonate across most parts of Europe, especially those people holding Eurovision parties. One has to consider the competition for Balkan votes, as there’s no Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia or Bulgaria, which leaves Greece in an extremely strong position being the default douze-point contender from that bloc.  The vocals are strong too, so what can the juries mark them down for?

BEST BET  Greece Win e/w 4 places – 34.0

Ukraine: Zlata Ognevich – Gravity

Cue bells and whistles… or a 7ft 8″ giant! It’s Ukraine!  The consensus is that Zlata Ognevich will be very strong from this running order slot.  The unconventional musical arrangement doesn’t seem to be putting people off either, though it will be interesting to see how the juries rank the song.  My guess is that fans will love it and ultimately buy into the gimmicks while falling for the uplifting, punchy Disney song. Don’t we all love Disney songs?

BEST BET Ukraine Top Eastern Europe – 3.0 @ SportingBet

Italy: Marco Mengoni – L’Essenziale

Question: What is Marco on?  Throughout the last 10 days, Marco has looked vacant and uninterested.  There were rumours he was ill, yet he managed to attend a number of social engagements.  At last night’s jury rehearsal, Marco delivered his worst performance to date.  He strangely kept grabbing his crotch, as if he was desperate for the toilet.  He also performed a number of messy, freestyle vocal flips that will almost certainly kill off any hopes of a top-10 finish.  A very weird performance!

BEST BET  Italy Top 10: NO – 2.5

Norway: Margaret Berger – I Feed You my Love

Margaret delivered last night, yet there are still nagging doubts surrounding I Feed You my Love.  Is it too dark and edgy for mainstream Europe?  When you compare i-tunes charts, Denmark is outperforming Norway in nearly every country.

BEST BET  Norway Top 10: NO – 4.0

Georgia: Sophie & Nodi – Waterfall

Too saccharine  Too shouty? Too cheesy? These are all valid questions that may end Georgia’s hopes of victory.  There still certainly be some bloc love for this strong ballad, yet I believe Ukraine to be the more televoter-friendly package.

BEST BET  Russia vs Georgia – 2.1

Ireland: Ryan Dolan – Only Love Survives

The Irish are once again bless with a lucky draw, though Ryan did little to advance his cause with jurors.  During the opening verse, Ryan was slightly off-key.  I doubt Ryan will get a top-10 finish, as Cascada and Finland are the more likely contenders from the upbeat genre.

BEST BET Ireland Finishing Position 16th-20th @ SportingBet

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

3 comments

  1. Great spots Gav, found several very interesting proposals there. Many thanks for the great coverage and best of luck tonight !

  2. Crunching the numbers so far without the split votes a few very big trends show themselves.

    Firstly the east still hold very big power over the top places.Without a standout song that crosses all boundaries an eastern song will win,a poor eastern song even.
    Teardrops was the best pan Europe vote puller iv seen since Running Scared.It needed to be to hold off the east.So unless another country produces a stand out pan europe vote puller the east have the power to default a winner.
    However under the new system its obvious their televoter diasporas can only get 3 into the top 10.The others sunk without trace.This says to me the new system has sliced off diaspora helping “everything”.This is a big play and will be important next year.The split votes will show this im sure.The east can only help 3 into the top 10.
    The same applies to the Scandi block.They seem now to be only able to help 2 into the top 10,again id expect the split votes to back this up.
    The Balkans votes this year were very interesting for us without Balkan finalists.They seemed to vote all ways but leaned towards the west slightly and western friendly songs.Again vote splits will confirm this but perhaps points to the balkans moving to favour western style songs?.Did that help in Serbias fall?Probbly and another pointer for next year but we need to see the splits to see if it was televotes leaning west.The balkan song most westernised will probably pick up the balkan block vote next year and will be a great top 10 shout.
    The other big point this year was itunes after the semis.
    Hungary was wrote off (by me as well) but after the semi it was second on itunes downloads across Europe.So the people who liked it after the semi really liked it.Those people vote.The producers also told us it would do well putting it where they did in the running order.It needed no help is what they were saying.
    This leads on to a massive development to me.The running order.
    Although the producers state they set the order up to make the show better i think they also set it up to make the voting better.Ireland pimp slot and Georgia 2nd from bottom.Finished last place and Georgia would of finished last eastern with the slot.That says to me the producers went over the votes.They didnt seem to do this with the first half but the 2nd half does tell the tale.
    They put Denmarks challengers after it to claw them closer and the bottom two in the pimp slots needed lots of help.Its only 1 year of doing this but its something we need to watch for next year as im certain the vote standing was in their minds in that running order.
    Those are my thoughts on things so will look forward to seeing everyone elses over the next few days/weeks.

  3. ireland still did better in tele voting than germany or finland, just saying >:)

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