With pink being colour of choice at Eurovision, it’s time we embarked on a short journey of Sherlock-esque deduction to uncover the leading suspects most likely to make us a killing.
Emmelie probably won’t make you a killing. Currently available at under evens, yet that may lengthen if other contenders are drawn into the second half of the draw.
Only Teardrops possesses a strong enthno vibe that will broaden Denmark’s appeal to Eastern and Balkan voters. What’s more, with a Shakira-like refrain, Emmelie’s song should remain sympathetic to western viewers.
Denmark are desperate to win the contest, having felt hard done by following the burial of A Friend in London in the 2011 draw. With Malmö just a short trip across the Øresund Bridge, there’s no finer time or place for Denmark to succeed.
The omens are on their side too:
In 1985, Norway won Eurovision under the host nation Sweden’s roof in the city of Gothenburg. The win was kept among friends in 1999 too, when the Danish Olsen Brothers won in the Swedish capital of Stockholm. Are we heading to Copenhagen or Herning (reportedly the favoured city) in 2014?
There’s no doubting the universal appeal of Only Teardrops. The stage show is thoroughly engaging and tremendously uplifting. Furthermore, the climactic ending looks and feels like a winner’s song, so the reprise – along with every national broadcaster announcing it as the favourite – will likely whip up support from many floating voters.
Is Emmelie de Forest your prime suspect?
Margaret Berger is a consummate performer. The 27 year old markets her song better than most in this contest. There’s something almost hypnotic about watching Margaret perform I Feed you my Love. She magnetises your glare as she seduces and flirts with the camera.
Unchanged from the Norwegian Melodi Grand Prix final, this is a lesson in simple and effective staging. It isn’t dependant on an arsenal of pyrotechnics to sell its message.
The edgy, electronic, radio-friendly elements to the Norwegian song are huge strengths likely to score well with the juries. One might argue that it’s a western leaning song that may struggle to engage the Balkans and some areas of the Eastern Bloc. Yet, more recently juries have been sympathetic to musically impressive songs. Just look at Germany 2010, Italy & Denmark 2011 and obviously Loreen’s Euphoria. All of those songs were either masterful musical compositions or radio-friendly entries.
Taking the omens articulated further up, could we be heading to Stavanger in 2014?
Is Margaret your culprit?
Year after year, the Eastern European vote vacuum, Azerbaijan is vastly underrated by the Eurovision community and betting markets. They never fail to produce a highly polished song that attracts pan-European support. To date, they have never failed to qualify or finish outside of the top 10.
Farid wants us to hold him and after watching his song, many will be sucked into that fantasy.
I wasn’t a supporter of this year’s Azerbaijani entry, believing that Farid lacks the star vocal to win Eurovision. I still doubt that Farid can win, yet I have now come around to believing top-4 placing is possible regardless of the draw.
Is Farid your smooth criminal primed win Eurovision?
With assistance from one of Sweden’s top writers, Thomas G:son, Georgia are taking Eurovision 2013 very seriously.
Concerns regarding Sophie & Nodi’s interplay and vocal strength have dissipated on the back of their rehearsal performances. Aside from Denmark, Georgia’s staging seems designed to sell a winning message. One can overanalyse these visual selling tools and just dismiss them as being contrived and too treacly. Nevertheless, as with the X-Factor UK, the average viewer is happy being played like a puppet.
One controversial aspect of the Georgian entry that will surely raise questions of impartiality from the EBU, is the inclusion of Reference Group member and Eurovision Producer, Christer Björkman’s partner, Martin Kagemark, as a Georgian backing vocalist. Is Georgia due a good running order slot?
Are Sophie & Nodi your crime duo?
Russia has an incredible record at Eurovision when they send commercial or well produced songs. Dina Garipova’s What If is gentle, but stirring ballad that is capable of going against many of the other similar compositions.
As the dominant regional state, Russia will enjoy considerably more televote support than in the semi-final 1. With five placed finishes over the last decade, it makes sense to keep the winner of The Voice, Russia in your thoughts.
Is Dina Garipova your Russian assassin?
With over 20 singles and a string of platinum hits, one of Europe’s foremost dance groups brings their brand of euro-dance to Eurovision.
Glorious did tread a similar path to Loreen’s Euphoria, yet subsequent changes to the arrangement to shrink it down to the permitted 3 minutes, has put an end to the plagiarism claims.
On Sunday, Natalie Horler delivered the most professional rehearsal we’d seen. Straight out of the box, she exploited her years of arena experience and announced Germany as the main Big-5 contender and potential top-4 contender.
To date, Cascada’s official Eurovision.tv video has attracted over 3-million views, second only to Italian X-Factor and San Remo winner, Marco Mengoni.
Looking back over the last three years, one should expect at least two pop/ballads in the top-4 with at least one upbeat song filling one of the last two places. I’ve already backed Germany for the top-10, but should we anticipate bigger things for Cascada?
Is Natlie Horler your femme fatale?
Germany to Win 29.0 (each way 1-4) SportingBet
Other Potential Suspects not to be Ruled Out
- Finland: Krista Siegrids – Marry Me
Viral contenders are an element to watch out for. Russia’s Babushki and Ireland’s Jedward sent Eurovision into a frenzy in 2011 and 2012.
The subject of gay marriage and equal rights is a particularly well publicised subject across Europe. It’s a topic that polarises opinion, yet it’s an issue due to be raised at Eurovision.
Finland’s Marry Me is one suspect not to be ruled out, even with a lesbian kiss added to the end of the song. The stunt is gaining plenty of traction across the Scandinavian region, especially in Finland, where a few politicians spoken in support of Krista’s stance.
More impressive is the 27 year old’s climb up the OGAE rankings. I traditionally don’t read much into polls, but to barely register after months of coverage, then suddenly rank 4th in the semi-final chart illustrates the infectious nature of the Finnish song and its viral #DingDong catchphrase.
Is Krista Siegfrids your shout to pillage the bookmakers?
- Greece: Koza Mostra – Alcohol is Free
Alcohol is Free is a wonderful prospect, especially in Sweden! The Koza Mostra guys and Agathon Iakovadis perform their lively and infectious song with real gusto.
Greece has placed in the top-4 three times over the last decade, which is a fairly impressive record. Over the same period, Greece has achieved eight top-10 finishes, so they can be relied on for high finishes.
Accounting for the typical party-loving Saturday night audience, it’s highly likely the Greek Alcohol is Free message could inspire a flood of support from the thrill seekers across Europe. What’s more, with the elimination of Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro, the Greek entry has no competition for votes in that region.
Can Koza Mostra slice their way through the field?
- Moldova: Aliona Moon – O’Mie
It’s all about Aliona’s dress. Mimicking Azerbaijan’s neat gimmick from last year, Moldova have taken their stage presentation a few steps further by synchronicity the backdrop visuals and adding a Wicked-style Defying Gravity take-off moment.
With a jury-box-ticking piano on stage, in addition to some effective Capoeira choreography, the Moldovan package is a long odds prospect to consider!
Moldova enjoy support from a multitude of nations, so with question marks over Romania qualification, will Moldova pick up extra televote support as a result of the hole left by regional giants, Romania?
Is Aliona Moon dressed to kill?