Kudos to Rob at entertainmentodds.com for highlighting these fantastic match bets from BWIN. Due to our downtime over the last week or so, I’ve kinda lost track of value. Anyway, here’s my take on Bwin’s offering:
Greece vs Norway – 2.20
This is a cracking match bet, given the strength of Greece’s voting bloc. I spent this evening averaging the semi-final finishing positions for each country since 2008, and Greece came out at 2.4 compared to Norway’s far from consistent 8.0. As far as I am concerned, there is only one winner here! If Amsterdam and London proved one thing, Koza Mostra with Alcohol is Free will be very well received in Malmö.
Netherlands vs Serbia – 1.95
This has been backed in a tad, but it still represents solid value when you consider Serbia’s televote strength, in addition to the benefit of performing last in the running order. Birds is a brilliant song and Serbia’s entry could be dismissed as too schlager, but in the context of statistical history, the latter becomes the far stronger entry.
San Marino vs Israel – 1.95
San Marino have been buried in the running order, whereas Israel are at least drawn in the second half. Israel’s more traditional approach will win more votes with the juries than Valentina Monetta’s ballad-schlager mongrel. Israel can count on small support from a few allies too, something San Marino isn’t guaranteed.
San Marino’s high position in the polls is a little disconcerting, but having seen her perform in London, I’m not at all convinced by Valentina’s stage craft. Give her a laptop and some kitsch choreography and she’s fine. this serious stuff just isn’t her forte.