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Tasty Match Bets to Gobble Up!

Kudos to Rob at entertainmentodds.com for highlighting these fantastic match bets from BWIN. Due to our downtime over the last week or so, I’ve kinda lost track of value. Anyway, here’s my take on Bwin’s offering:

Greece vs Norway – 2.20

This is a cracking match bet, given the strength of Greece’s voting bloc.  I spent this evening averaging the semi-final finishing positions for each country since 2008, and Greece came out at 2.4 compared to Norway’s far from consistent 8.0.  As far as I am concerned, there is only one winner here!  If Amsterdam and London proved one thing, Koza Mostra with Alcohol is Free will be  very well received in Malmö.

Netherlands vs Serbia – 1.95

This has been backed in a tad, but it still represents solid value when you consider Serbia’s televote strength, in addition to the benefit of performing last in the running order.  Birds is a brilliant song and Serbia’s entry could be dismissed as too schlager, but in the context of statistical history, the latter becomes the far stronger entry.

San Marino vs Israel – 1.95

San Marino have been buried in the running order, whereas Israel are at least drawn in the second half.  Israel’s more traditional approach will win more votes with the juries than Valentina Monetta’s ballad-schlager mongrel.  Israel can count on small support from a few allies too, something San Marino isn’t guaranteed.

San Marino’s high position in the polls is a little disconcerting, but having seen her perform in London, I’m not at all convinced by Valentina’s stage craft.  Give her a laptop and some kitsch choreography and she’s fine. this serious stuff just isn’t her forte.


About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

20 comments

  1. Iv taken all three of those Gav and got the Serbia one at 2.1.Three cracking bets those.
    2 out of 3 will deliver a lovely profit but id expect all 3 of those to land.Nicely put by you why as well.
    Israel should destroy San Marino with jury votes alone.Serbia simply have massive vote firepower in this semi without anything else and Greece,well weigh the telvotes dont count them.

  2. These head to head bets are for best SF finish, right? If you guys think Greece will beat Norway then shouldnt you guys be betting Greece to win SF2 @ 11? Or are you confident Georgia will win? I mean surely Azerbaijan wont, right?

    Also, I hope you all are wrong about Valentina and she makes it to top10 and I’m a happy camper! 8)

  3. And a follow up question. It looks like Georgia is more likely to win this SF than Greece is, then why arent you guys jumping on Norway vs. Georgia as well. Georgia has 2.2. Or are you? 🙂

  4. Iv taken a little San Marino not qualify at 3.0s at bet365 and iv also taken some Iceland qualify at 2.1.

  5. Me too. I’m surprised they let me have 3-figures on San Marino @ 3.0.

  6. they have been very good this year Gav bet365 iv found though i was just under 3 figures on that one.Cracking value.
    Those staging photos look like nothing to the casual observer but they are gold dust.
    Looks like the Spanish staging is poor like you highlighted it always is.Id hoped theyd see they had a good staging song but looks like not.

  7. I’m really afraid that everyone is on San Marino not to Q bet. Damn I’m starting to second guess myself.. So you guys think the fact that she is so high in polls is simply because of her fans?

  8. I really liked her in london great vocal,
    As it stands im still on the fence with san marino but I do admit that 3.0 looks good odds

  9. Simply on value Archi,,3.0s is far too big.The song is very disjointed to me.It could/will be a train wreck on stage.If it was 2.0s i wouldnt back it,but 3.0s is very good value.
    I liked it at first until i then saw it for what it really is..Rubbish.

  10. There is a massive lack of match bets,top regional etc etc this year.Very poor indeed.Are the bookies waiting for rehearsals?Or simply not bothering.

  11. San Marino not to Q is @ 3.2 with Unibet guys.

  12. http://tv.nrk.no/serie/eurovision-song-contest/muhu13008113/01-05-2013

    The first part of the 4 show ESC review on Norwegian TV above.They covered the first ten songs.
    The “winner” was Ukraine with 59p,second Denmark with 53p.

    Denmark wouldnt want that to be spread across their allies or it would be curtains.

    Its a very interestind scrap.We have 3 ESC by numbers songs in Denmark,Russia and Ukraine and at the same time 2 perfect contemporary classy songs in Italy and Norway.

    Its all there to play for still.Fascinating year in lots of ways.

  13. What was the format of that show, Durham? How were points awarded and with what criteria?

    • I have no idea Gav,though it was i think 6 on the “jury” awarding the points.I dont know if they followed the EBU pointers or not though i find it very interesting indeed they picked Ukraine over Denmark.Highly likely they did act like a jury would.
      Andy might be able to pick apart what went on.
      Worth watching the other shows as well to see what they come up with.

  14. Watching that video from Norwegian TV brought back memories of my University days trying to understand Welsh TV. I got excited whenever I heard an English word. My favourite bit was the description of the Montenegro video as ‘cagefight bitchbattle’.
    I don’t know what the qualifications of the people on that show were but if their views represented those of juries across Europe then in terms of qualification I’d say it was good news for Slovenia and bad news for Estonia.

  15. Also bad news for Lithuania.

  16. If those views are represented across the juries SJ it would mean Ukraine won easily and Denmark would be well down considering one of their best friends “jury” prefers one of their main rivals.

    Emmelie could be suffering as Gav said peaking too early.She needs to really blow things away with the performance and she MUST get that smile and connection across to the televoters.

  17. I listened to the semi last night right through and something really stood out to me.The first thing that really made me feel like i was enjoying it was Slovenia.

    She wakes things up with a bit of a bang.

    I thought she was one of the least likely to qualify,now i think she will as long as her 2nd dress rehearsal goes ok.

  18. I thought the same about Slovenia when I listened through a couple of weeks ago. Getting tempted by their to qualify odds.

  19. That’s what we pointed out on the first podcast – Slovenia is welcome relief after the two opening slowies.

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