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Podcast: Eurovision 2013 Part 3

ESCtips’ ScandieAndy, Gavster and serial novelty TV tweeter, Tim Booth combine their vast experience and share their expert opinions on the first eight songs of semi final 2.

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About Gavster

Owner & Chief Editor   I’m a qualified designer and the official geek in the crew, dedicating most of my free time to keeping the ESCtips show on the road. My family routes allow me to support the UK, Ireland and Italy.

34 comments

  1. I’m surprised no one of you likes San Marino. It’s easily in my personal top3, might even be number 1 this year. I think the last minute change is brilliant. I’m not a professional musician, far from it, so I dont know shit how a song should be structured, but for me it works well and I like it. I’m deep @ 1.65 for it to qualify so I’m praying you guys are wrong about this 😛

    Fans like her and they are likely the ones voting her on polls, but part of those people are also going to vote for her. And I can see jury giving this solid points as well. Funny how different we think about this song. Usually I’m on the same page with at least one of you, but not with this it seems.

  2. Excellent podcast, this! I especially liked that there were differing opinions this time around. Kind of gave listeners both sides of the argument.
    .
    I also agree with you that the value in this semi is in (backing) Bulgaria and (laying) San Marino, and have been doing both to a larger extent than I usually do at this point in time. Bulgaria should be pretty safe given that their stage show is decent, and at evens it’s an absolute steal (I have fair value at around 1.4-1.5). San Marino lacks hook, confuses with the change to schlager, and has a terrible slot in the running order. I’m far from certain it won’t Q – after all, both Malta and Albania are very prone to vote for these kind of songs, but at odds 1.4-1.45 it just has to be a great value lay.

  3. Iv backed Finland for top ten on Betfair at 7s but iv covered it with Germany at 2.25 .I think one of them will top ten .
    Finland just seems to work very well with the choreo and shes a natural performer.The kiss worries me greatly though and i wont add to my stake with that threat hanging over things.

    Iv been laying San Marino for weeks,but not on the qualify market but on the top 10 market between 3.3 and 4.0s.I think thats superb value as if they scrape a qualify i cant see them having any chance of top 10.

    I think il probably go and take some of that Bulgaria as my first to qualify bet.Seems a very good price around evens.

    Most of my win market is now traded for free runs with just some Belarus im stuck with but happy to run.
    Italy as well im over heavy but its coming in now so i might trade a free run on the win side.
    Iv also taken a small punt on Serbia top 4 at 17s with Bwin.

    • The San Marino top-10 lay sounds great. If they do Q I’ll join you there to recoup my losses 😉 the pattern from previous year has been that fan-faves tend to shorten during the show, anyway.

  4. I have Finland around 10th in the semi, in other words borderline. I think the valuation on Betfair is largely correct, so I’m keeping away for now (I’d be shocked if it top-10’d though). If it wasn’t for the great performance I’d have it as a non-qualifier; I honestly find the song cheap and don’t agree on the Katy Perry comparisons (does she really have “dinga ding-dong choruses?) other than that they both have worn brides clothing during performances. One thing I haven’t heard mentioned is the very weird and at times almost creepy lyrics… although I guess that goes to show that it’s hardly going to matter. No one listens to the lyrics anyway (me neither, most of the time).

    • squall, I was planning on mentioning the lyrics but I just found so much about it to slag off that I forgot. They are indeed awful – misogynistic and backwards. Just watched the Amsterdam performance again and I maintain my view that Finland won’t be qualifying. If Finland qualifies then there’ll be a big shock regarding something that doesn’t – like Armenia or Israel, perhaps.

      Glad you enjoyed the podcast!

      • Last year was one of the first years where there wasn’t a shock in the semi-finals. I think it’s wise not to be so definitive when discussing semi-final outcomes, whether it be Finland, Armenia or Israel.

        There’s always a potential mauling on the cards – believe me, I’ve got the scars to prove it! Sweden 2010 was a particularly vicious bite!

        • I was thinking about that earlier – how there wasn’t a shock qualifier or non-qualifier last year. BUT Bulgaria were 0 points away from qualifying – my jaw would have hit the floor if they had done so. There’s only likely to be a few points between the countries in 9th-11th, so decisions between the borderline cases have to be taken carefully.

  5. Will Armenias friends save it though?Its a terrible song as it stands but might improve.There is also the risk Albania might take the rockier televotes.
    Armenia has strength here from friends,but its not certain that will be enough.They are very borderline.Myself and Archi took a lot of lays at 2.0s top 10 so a not qualify would be helpfull.

    A big thing going for Krista is that she follows such utter garbage (including Azer).The televoters will be glad of an uptempo uplifting number after the funeral marches before it.
    In that respect she has a decent draw.Malta will get an uplift for the same reasons.

    Its a much tougher semi and very tight.Diaspora and running slots and position could swing half of these.

  6. What I find interesting/strange is that all of us have Bulgaria through (is also my biggest bet at this stage) while looking at the oddschecker it’s still fighting with Finland for the 10th Q spot.

  7. Am I the only one who doesnt have Bulgaria bet? 😛 I guess so then. I’m not as confident as others seem to be. The only reason I’m thinking about it is that I hear that kind of music is liked in bulgaria and neigbouring countries. I’m quite sure it will get 0 point from quite many countries. But also somewhat high from friends. I might stay out of this bet actually. Afraid to take either side right now with evens :/

  8. Have you seen the Armenia top 10 price on Betfair now Archi,im tempted to trade out as the profit will pay for 5 top 10 bets),Whoever put a grand up at 2.0 and 2.1 for us to snaffle),5.1 now.

    • Yes I have seen it, but I havent traded it out just yet. I probably will for a free run though. Now at 5.3 it starts to look tempting to make it a very good freerun.

  9. Bulgaria top 10 at 15.0(!!!) with Sportingbet. Iceland top 10 is worth a poke on Betfair at 19.5.

  10. Im on iceland 19.5 too 🙂

  11. and me pimp,,,it might be dated but its charming and 19.5 is far too high.
    Happy to take some of that.

    Will the big viking deliver?Hel have to get out of the semi first but big price.

  12. Yeah I agree it was deffo overpriced
    Its a nice enough song really might be too many decent scandy entries but its low risk at those odds

  13. I dont know under which topic I should ask, but thoughts on “Any semi-final qualifier to finish last” @ Bwin odds of 1,72? It seems like an awesome bet, right? UK or Spain are the ones that might be last from pre-qualifiers but highly unlikely for both,right?

  14. Seems a great bet Archi.I cant see any chance of Spain or the UK coming last this year.Gav thinks Spain could be bottom 5 though but i dont and even if they are surely not last?.Can those odds be right as they seem huge for that bet?

  15. Check it our yourself. I think they just dropped the ball here 😛 I mean here is how the odds are as of now:
    Any Semi-final qualifier: 1.72
    Spain: 2.6
    France: 8.0
    UK: 10
    Sweden: 34
    Italy: 41
    Germany: 67

  16. 2.6 for Spain to finish last are ridiculous odds.Im off to take some of that bet 1.72 Archi.

  17. yeah I took a nice chunk of that as well. 2.6 to finish last is too ridiculous for any country really 😛 That simply cant be a bad bet @ 1.72

  18. I doubt Spain will be last.

  19. Thanks, Archi – they only let me put €30, but better than nothing 😉
    .
    Btw, why is Norway to perform after Denmark in finals @2.40? Makes no sense to me. Have no idea how they rule it if only one qualifies, but that’s unlikely anyway.

  20. I’ve been looking at the same thing and I dont understand it either. It should be 50-50, right? I guess they are assuming something as it’s not random anymore. But whether they go to first half or second half is random, right? It says at least one has to qualify for the best to stand. So I assume if Norway fails to qualify then “will denmark perform before norway” is yes and vice verca.

    There is also this weird one: “Will Denmark be announced as a qualifying act before Russia? (Payout based on announcement not voting result)” No: 1.45 and Yes: 2.55. Why? This should be 50-50 assuming both are qualifying, right? Is the announcement always random? Or do they arrange the announcement order somehow to make it interesting? That’s a solid value @ 2.55 if it really is 50-50. But I’m a bit hesitant to grab it since it feels like there has to be a reason they are pricing it like that. Right? Or has someone been pumping money on “No” and they want to balance the books? 🙂 I just dont get it.

  21. On the Russia / Denmark one Archi the producers will want to make the public wonder if the bookies favourite has qualified right until the end.Its also quite a tradition to make your near neighbours sweat.

    The Norway/Denmark one is strange.These sort of bets worry me though.They are one reason why i dont agree with SVT deciding the running order.Who is to say someone wouldnt pass the info to someone who could then bet on something they already know the result.
    High odds on a 50/50 chance ring alarm bells.

  22. Yes for the russia/Denmark bet that sounds like a reasonable explanation. I also havent touched the other one as I find it really hard to believe they would give those kind of odds if the chances actually were 50-50 like they would have been previously. Like you said, high odds on seemingly 50-50 bet and alarms go off. I guess it’s better to let it be then.. Someone at Bwin has to know something we dont.

  23. That has been backed down, Archi/Durham.

    It makes sense for the host broadcaster to manufacture suspense with its closest neighbours/allies – much like Azerbaijan did with Turkey.

  24. Hans J. Wollstein

    Sirs,
    I have listened to your podcasts with great interest but also some dismay. I cannot for the life of me understand your methods. You claim to base your predictions on history then fail to take history into account. That any sane person could dismiss the voting power of this year’s San Marino entry and favor Bulgaria seems absurd on the face of it. You compare the 2013 Bulgaria with 2005 Bulgaria but there is no comparison. 2005 was the height of former East Block dominance with 100 percent televoting and the year when most of the “old” Eurovision nations actively debated whether the contest was even worth continuing. A lot has changed since then. Yet you dismiss this year’s bookmakers’ darling Denmark as overrated, comparing it to France 2011. But the French odds back then were quite different, I would argue, and Sorgnu never had what you probably consider fanwank appeal, but Teardrops does and actually enjoys very broad acceptance. Also, unlike Denmark 2013, the French song had little provenance. The composer of this year’s Danish entry, in contrast, does, finishing fifth in 1994 (yes, I know, old system) and, more to the point, fifth in 2011 with a song of much less appeal than the present. Why is that not taken into account? Now, who am I to dismiss professional gambling theorists? What with being someone who once put a quarter in a Nevada slot machine, lost it, and never returned? Well, I only gamble this once every year. And win. I won in 2008, didn’t bother with 2009 because the odds for Norway were so lousy (only bet on winners never place, etc.), won in 2010, and again in 2012 Denmark 2013 should not be compared to France 2011 — the odds are much, much lower — but to Sweden 2012. History, not socalled experts, tells me that.

    • Hans, first of all: welcome to ESCtips!
      .
      Our predictions are based on a mixture of history and gut feeling. Although we like to think our record is good, we know that there will be several songs we are wrong about this year. This is a song contest, after all – if someone prefers one song over another, it’s a matter of opinion, rather than right over wrong.
      .
      Anyway, please feel free to comment on other articles where you may disagree!

      ScandieAndy.

    • We all know about the changes since 2005 dude. We are very well aware when jury was implemented back to eurovision, as well as the new change this year. We also dont agree on many songs so please dont generalize. Some of us think Estonia will prevail while others think it’s destined to fail. Some of us sees a real chance for San Marino to have a great finish while others think 3.0 not to qualify is worth a punt. We have our opinions, and our opinions are based on of history, running order, gut feeling, and the planetary alignment between earth and mars. I also do some recreational voodoo.

      If you want to make money in eurovision I would advice you to bet on something else than just win market. Listen to all the songs, study history, analuze, and act accordingly and Saturday 18th will be a lot more fun! 🙂

  25. Hi Hans,,id just add i think Denmark is the best ESC song in years,iv said that from first listen,i had a very big bet on it to be selected and i still think it is the best entry by far and with a good draw will win.Im sure Gav as well thinks it is a superb entry and a very strong challenger as he has from day 1 as well.In fact followers here were all getting on at 21.0.
    I dont however think it will win the semi because they simply dont have the diaspora votes in that semi compared to the likes of Russia.Ukraine and Serbia.
    San Marino has no voting power at all apart from die hard ESC fans.Those fans control polls but once the ordinary pubic vote they dilute things greatly in the semi and more so in the final.San Marino splits opinion and im borderline but i bet on what i think is value and thats none qualify at 3.0s.

  26. just some wild speculation about the running order which is an interesting change if it continues because if a pattern emerges we may be able to do some general predictions in the future.
    I think stv will not want to be seen to favour any Scandinavian country so I think both Denmark and Norway will not be appearing in the latter part of the show – say 17 onwards. but I do think they’ll want to give some of the western nations a good chance, especially those that particularly suffer in the past step forward spain, uk, france.
    if stv would like to see a western winner I think they will put Italy in a plum spot… i’m thinking 24th like Serbia last year will cause maximum damage for this song.
    it’s just idle speculation of course. does anyone else have theories on how stv will organise it?

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