This is a short guide to making a profit before a vote is cast. Betting exchanges like Betfair have paved the way to making money before a song even reaches the finals stage of Eurovision.
Eurovision to the casual punter would seem to be a case of simply picking a winner or perhaps delving into the top-10 or match bet markets – a case of watching the final with only a naïve understanding and blasé approach to winning and losing – a Grand National in song.
During the Eurovision calendar, prices will fluctuate depending on a country’s performance in the pre-contest polls, the allocation of their running order slot, or the quality of a live performance. The key to exploiting these events from a trading perspective is extremely simple. Your aim is to identify a song or price that you think will considerably shorten sometime in the future. Think of it as the reverse to trading shares.
The Eurovision win market opens early, usually five months before the song contest starts and very few people take notice at this premature point. Most punters don’t place bets until the week before; some even wait until the day of the final. For those with a long-term and resourceful outlook, there is a chance to earn some serious profit.
Let’s investigate this by using this year’s examples compiled by commenter, DurhamBorn…
Firstly open up a Betfair account. Done? Now you’re ready to trade.
I will now illustrate real trades placed this year and hopefully show how simple the process is:
Originally, Romania were listed at 41.0 with several bookmakers. Whilst at that price, Zaleilah had the most hits on YouTube, more than all the other songs combined. Furthermore, it is one of the best entries in its genre and crucially, it is destined to hoover up votes from the majority of European nations – 41.0 appears far too big a price!
Romania are a certainty to qualify from semi-final 2, therefore, do we think it more likely the odds will drift out to 50.0, or shorten to 25.0, or perhaps 16.0 closer to the final? If you’re thought was the latter, you were correct, so here we had a trade.
Our member, DurhamBorn, backed Romania to win with £250 at 41.0, so his loss if they don’t win is £250. If they do win he makes £10,250.
The beauty of Betfair is that you can lay (bet against) an outcome. By offering the lay, you take the bet. For example, Romania were 41.0 on Betfair, if he were to lay £250 and they eventually won, he would stand to lose £10,250. If he did both, he would win and lose nothing whatever the outcome.
Now let me explain the process with Romania’s odds shortening:
With £250 on Romania winning at 41.0 and taking into account that the song has done well on YouTube, in addition to receiving European airplay now means punters are backing it. The price has shortened to 33.0, then 25.0 and now 21.0 with the main bookmakers. Likewise, the Betfair market follows and is currently trading at about 25.0.
There is now a choice, our member, DurhamBorn, can trade out at a profit, or let the bet run its course. He decides to lay (bet against) Romania at 25.0 to a value of £250. So if Romania win, he wins £10,250 from the win bet, but would have to pay out £6,250 because of the lay, equalling £4000 profit. Conversely, if they lose, he loses nothing, as the £250 lay clears the slate.
Alternatively, if he had offered a lay of £350 at 25.0, he would win £1,500 on the news of a Romanian victory, but if they lost, he would still profit by £100 – a win win situation.
Let’s investigate another potential trade.
Escbet published Italy as being available at 28.0 on the day the new song by Nina Zilli was announced. If that was backed for £200, you would win £5,600.
Italy’s price has since shrunk to 8.0 on Betfair, so if we were to lay them with a further £200 at a liability of £1,600, we stand to win £4000 if Italy win, but lose nothing if they don’t. In essence, it’s a free bet.
We could lay Italy for £400 at 8.0, which would earn us £2,400 should they win, but still make us £200 profit should they lose.
As you can appreciate, it is possible to sit back during the Eurovision final knowing that whatever happens you’re winning.
By following the tipsters and commenters at escbet early before Eurovision finds its way onto people’s wavelengths, those trades are there to be found and exploited. Remember, the early bird catches the worm!
In our member, DurhamBorn’s case, if Romania win he gets a free two weeks in the sun, if they lose he get a free weekend in The Lake District. Either way it’s a win!
Credit for this article goes to member DurhamBorn.